The 4905.75 target is as high as I can project for this bull market. Although it lies nearly 20% above, this hardly seems ambitious considering the ease with which buyers have crushed Hidden Pivot resistances of lesser, albeit significant, degree over the last twelve months. Neither the target nor the secondary pivot (p2) at 4222.81 will be precisely correct for trading purposes, since the chart is a blend of many monthly contracts stretching back more than a decade. But they should prove good enough for government work, meaning we can try shorting very near them using ‘reverse ABC’ set-ups. We can also use the Hidden Pivots at 4200.44 and 4536.50 given here previously for precise targeting, risk management and getting short. They are likely to work well, since both come from a clear pattern associated with the single-contract month of June. ______ UPDATE (Apr 19, 8:53 p.m.): Sellers pounded the hell out of a Hidden Pivot support at 4152.00, so I wouldn’t put too much store in the weak rally that has followed. The yellow flag is out, with slippage in prospect toward a low last week at 4113.00 that begs to be tested. Here’s a chart that shows everything. ______ UPDATE (Apr 20, 6:30 p.m.): The test of support came expectedly as expected, but bulls did not exactly pass with flying colors. Now, if the futures were to close lower on Wednesday for a third consecutive day, that would be extremely unusual and probably bearish. Let’s see what the day brings. _______ UPDATE (Apr 21, 5:00 p.m.): Shorts tripped over themselves and soiled their pants, so eager were they to get’ em back today. A key takeaway from the rally is this: If you initiate a long index position at the end of a second consecutive down day, you are all but guaranteed to make money. If you don’t believe this, try to find three straight down days since the bull market began in 2009. This has been an extreme rarity other than during the pandemic crash, and even then, during the 2020 February/March period, three-baggers were not as numerous as you might think. ______ UPDATE (Apr 22, 9:54 p.m.): Feeling the churn? After two weeks, it’s starting to get old.
ESM21 – June E-Mini S&PS (Last:4158.00)