The 355.05 bull-market target broached here earlier remans viable, notwithstanding a two week hiatus for flower-sniffing that has stalled the Cubes at the pattern’s secondary pivot, 340.66. The April 5 gap through p=326.27 on first contact tells us that the target is all but certain to be achieved, presumably with an energetic leap from consolidation. You can short there, tightly stopped, but more aggressively if you’ve made a few bucks on the way up. Well-out-of-the-money put options with 3-4 weeks left on them are recommended, but don’t stick with them if QQQ closes for two straight days above 355.05 or trades intraday above 357.50. _______ UPDATE (Apr 30): Another week of flower-sniffing has left the bullish picture unchanged. For the moment, it outweighs a concerning technical picture that has been developing in IWM and the E-Mini S&Ps. _______ UPDATE (May 4, 5:32 p.m. ET): Hard selling drove the Cubes down to the red line (326.27), triggering a ‘mechanical’ buy. This is riskier than bidding at the green line, so I did not recommend the trade. Even so, my gut feeling is that the trade will be profitable. That implies that QQQ will rally to at least 340.66, where a partial profit would be taken, before falling to the 316.67 stop-loss. If this paper trade were to get stopped out, it would suggest that potentially fatal weakness had crept into the long-term bull market. This means any next leg up, even if it reaches the 355.05 target, could be the bull’s last gasp.
QQQ – Nasdaq ETF (Last:330.14)