Bulls are in a dangerous spot, if such a thing were possible in the midst of a relentless, historical buying mania. Last week’s record high fell midway between two targets I’d given, respectively, at 4200.44 and 4222.82. Both are ‘secondary Hidden Pivots’, which we’ve seen produce a fair number of fatal stalls when they were hit precisely and not exceeded soon thereafter. The lower number comes from a pattern stretching back to the start of the pandemic rally and is tied to a 4536.50 target that lies 8.5% above. The higher number (4222.82) is tied to the bull market’s 2009 low and a pattern projecting to 4905.75. That is the highest target I can project without reaching back to 1932. As always, a decisive push through a clear Hidden Pivot level such as the ones given above implies the next is likely to be reached. We’ll be watching in any case. _____ UPDATE (May 4, 8:34 a.m. ET): The secondary pivot at 4200.44 is visually holding like a rock so far, after 17 days. Here’s a picture. _______ UPDATE (May 4, 4:59 p.m.): DaBoyz squeezed shorts in the final minutes of the session, recouping more than half of the day’s worst losses. Even at the 4120.50 intraday bottom, however, sellers failed to breach any prior lows on the daily chart. That would take a print beneath 4110.50, a good place for hopeful bears to set an alert.
ESM21 – June E-Mini S&PS (Last:4158.00)