The pattern shown (inset) is pure sausage, with a point ‘B’ high that occurred in the middle of nowhere. However, it is gnarly enough to work anyway. In practice, this means you can ‘mechanically’ buy a pullback to the green line (4201.60), stop 4165.00, and also rely on D=4310.75 to precisely cap the rally. The futures stalled Friday at the 4238.00 midpoint pivot, but my gut feeling is that they will leave it in the dust on Monday, all but guaranteeing a finishing stroke to at least 4310.75. You can get short there with a generous stop-loss if you’ve profited on the way up. Since volume in the June contract will dry up by midweek, here’s the September contract, using the same pattern and a target at 4300.00. _______ UPDATE (Jun 14, 10:29 p.m.): Unless you’re a masochist, there is no reason to be trading this little POS other than in relationship to my Hidden Pivot levels and targets. Notice that it spent the entire day ratcheting lower in such a way that anyone who was short endured Chinese water-torture. Then, in the final 30 minutes, DaScumballs got it all back and then some with a short-squeeze calculated to keep the pressure on during the night session. This is mother nature’s way of telling you that you should be trading this little monster only from the long side to begin with, and that furthermore, there is no way it will embark on a potentially tradeable countertrend until it has reached p2=4274.38 (or, basis the September, p2=4263.88). _______ UPDATE (Jun 16, 12:23 a.m.): I’m going fishin’. Back later. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. ______ UPDATE (Jun 16, 6:55 p.m.): A ten-thousand lemmings went postal on the non-news today that the Fed just might start the dreaded “taper” in, oh, maybe a couple of years. The first wildly gratuitous swing took the futures almost precisely down to the green line of this chart, setting up a textbook ‘mechanical’ buy that could have reaped a profit of as much as $5000 in eight minutes. One subscriber reported doing the trade — minutes before I even posted the alert. Subsequent gyrations could have doubled that sum, but there was no compelling way to get aboard that I could detect, not that I would have attempted it after the initial gambit.
ESM21 – June E-Mini S&PS (Last:4246.75)