DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:353.45)

Last week ended with a push slightly above the top of a trading range that has contained DIA since May. As far as breakouts go, it is so undramatic as to be unworthy of that description. However, since a finishing stroke to the 364.31 rally target has never been in doubt, we’ll infer that DIA is at long last on its way there. Because of the large expanse of time consumed by this lethargic bull trend, the only option strategy that would have worked all along was a covered write.  Meanwhile, any put butterflies we may have bought along the way would have expired worthless, but they served as a cheap way to leverage the unthinkable. We can still butterfly the rally target with calls, but I’d suggest going out no further than six weeks and paying no more than 0.20 per ‘fly. If you are unsure of how to do this, there is a recorded lesson on butterfly spreading accessible on your account page. ______ UPDATE (Aug 21): The bull is beginning to look winded. Although that doesn’t necessarily mean 364.31 won’t be achieved, we should still be alert to the possibility of a lazy rollover that mutates into a bull-killer. If DIA hasn’t traded above 352.70 by Thursday afternoon, nor below 350.00, consider buying a few Sep 30 $10 put butterflys centered on the 340 strike for 0.10 or less. A free mini-course on butterfly spreading is accessible via your account dashboard. ______ UPDATE (AUG 23, 11:19 p.m.): Today’s lunatic leap made DIA seem like less of a laggard. If it continues, a decisive push above p2=354.45 of this pattern would put D=356.82 in play. That would be a downpayment on the still-viable 364.31 target of the larger pattern noted above.