Gold has looked so awful lately that I’ve gone against my gut in drawing the mildly bullish chart shown in the inset. It is a slightly ‘reversed” ABC pattern, with a point ‘C’ just a hair beneath late March’s 1683.00 low. The pattern projects to 1916.20, which would represent a 7% gain from Friday’s settlement price. A ‘mechanical’ buying opportunity on a pullback to x=1737.50 is strongly implied, and so that is what I will suggest, at least for now. The trade would take a stop-loss at 1677 , implying about $24,000 of initial risk on four contracts. Since that is way out of our league, we’ll use a ‘camouflage’ set-up if and when the opportunity arrives. Our goal would be to cut the theoretical entry risk by about 85%, to around $3600. _______ UPDATE (Sep 16, 9:04): Gold is garbage once again, diving hellishly just to mau-mau bulls. Since sellers look like they’re about to pulverize the green line, I’ll suggest backing away from the rABC set-up suggested above. the trade would still enjoy good odds, but at a cost of possibly excruciating pain. Ace Pivoteers can attempt the trade nonetheless with a camouflage set-up pegged to a low near 1700, the sweet spot of the downtrend’s discomfort zone. _______ UPDATE (Sep 21, 11:47 p.m.): So far, a bullish prediction made by ‘Som’ in the chat room is holding up. He called for an upturn after Sep 17, and that is in fact what has occurred. I am skeptical about how far the rally can go, but not so skeptical that I would forego an opportunity to make hay with it, trading with an aggressively bullish bias until weakness becomes evident. In the meantime I’ll gladly vet any entry strategies broached in the chat room, so don’t hesitate to ask. ______ UPDATE (Sep 23, 7:35 a.m.): So much for that prediction. Weakness has in fact become all too evident, with gold once again looking like it’s old self — i.e., like hell. ______ UPDATE (Sep 23, 10:06): Regardless of how bad gold looks, the two-day dive brought it down to the green line, tripping a textbook ‘mechanical’ buy. No one seemed interested, even subscribers who regularly attend the Wednesday sessions, but if you used the pattern in the chart to get long, please let me know and I’ll provide tracking guidance.
GCZ21 – December Gold (Last:1748.90)