CLZ21 – December Crude (Last:80.43)

This morning’s lunatic leap has sufficiently exceeded the 85.01 target shown in the inset to imply that significantly higher prices are coming. Here’s a chart that shows a bigger-picture objective at 105.08. I’d need to see a more decisive move past p=83.41 and a few consecutive closes above it to be sure, but for the time being we can use p2=94.25 as a minimum upside objective. With pump prices already above $5/gallon in some places, this will not be good news for the transportation sector and for the U.S. economy in general. No one knows what’s in the Democrats’ ‘stimulus’ bill (that is very nearly true), but we can only hope there will be gas coupons for every decent American who owns an automobile. ______ UPDATE (Oct 27, 9:02): I jumped the gun with the 105.08 target, since this one at 91.51 would need to be fulfilled first. As the chart shows, ‘mechanical’ set-ups can be used to get long on a pullback to either p or x. Ask in the chat room if you are unsure of exactly how to do this. The buy at 65.84 on July 23 was about as ‘textbook’ as these opportunities get. _______ UPDATE (Nov 4, 11:54 p.m.): Crude’s usual nuttiness turned psychotic, but this had only a small impact on my technical outlook. You can lower the first rally target to 88.96 while leaving the bigger-pattern targets unchanged. They are not a done deal. ______ UPDATE (Nov 10, 11:36 p.m.): If the futures remain weak, use this pattern to bottom-fish at D=79.80 with a very tight ‘camo’ stop. _______ UPDATE (Nov 11, 9:52 a.m.): Crude has flunked the weakness test this morning, unable to achieve downside D=79.80. The target remains valid but is less likely to be hit. If you have the opportunity to use it to bottom-fish, go with the trend (i.e., with ‘camouflage’, as originally suggested) rather than against it with a limit bid and a tight stop-loss. ______ UPDATE (Nov 12, 9:58 a.m.): The futures bottomed this morning two cents below my 79.80 target, setting up a bull trade that could have produced a quick profit of as much as $3500, depending on where you got aboard. See my comments in the Trading Room for further details.