ES moved more or less according to forecast on Friday. Although I’d touted an avalanche as likely, for scalping purposes I also proffered bottom-fishing guidance in the chat room that caught the intraday lows in QQQ, DIA and ES within a tenth of a percent. I’d intended to trade for a bounce, and that is still what I think we are seeing notwithstanding its seeming power. In Hidden Pivot terms the rally is still a relative weakling, having exceeded just two of six ‘external’ peaks on the hourly chart.  Although we shouldn’t presume too strongly against a waxing rally, bulls should still have to prove their case one peak at a time before we resign ourselves to new record highs. (That would not make me more bullish, for reasons I’ve explained in the current commentary concerning IBM’s head-fake in 2009.) For now, use the 4224.75 target shown in this chart as a minimum downside objective. It will remain theoretically valid until such time as C=4469.50 is exceeded. A rally to the green line (4408.31) would trip a ‘mechanical’ short, stop 4470.00, but I am recommending this trade only to Pivoteers who know how to cut the $12,000 entry risk on four contracts by 90% or more using a ‘camouflage’ trigger.  However, pending a possible tone change Sunday night, your trading bias should be bullish if you can handle entry signals on the sub-hourly charts. _____ UPDATE (Oct 4, 4:28 p.m.): Yet another timid showing by bears, this one failed to take out Friday’s low. String together enough such failures and bulls eventually will seize the advantage.  Monday is typically their worst day to scare up a bounce, but the herd looked poised nonetheless for a ‘turnaround Tuesday’. ______ UPDATE (Oct 5, 5:20 p.m.): Bulls turned things around with a vertical rally, but it wasn’t strong enough to surpass even a single ‘external’ peak on the hourly chart. The first of them lies at 4365.75, but let’s hold the applause until such time as buyers chew through it and another at 4389.00. Here’s the chart. ______ UPDATE (Oct 6, 8:20 p.m.): DaPondscum have tipped their hand tonight, wafting the futures above two prior peaks that they wouldn’t dare have taken on during daylight hours, when there would have been more than a few sellers around. It’s still a little early to rate new record highs as a surefire bet, but it certainly becomes thinkable when DaBoyz have shown themselves capable of pushing this hoax past major obstructions at night while expending almost zero buying power.