With December Gold trading near the middle of the channel shown (inset), it’s easy to visualize a move in either direction to the top or bottom of the range. My hunch is that the next big move will be lower, however, since last week’s gratuitous hump failed by a whopping $9 to surpass a distinctive ‘external’ peak at 1810.60 recorded on September 14. We were looking to get short if that price were reached; alas, the plunge from a mere 1801.90 caught us flat-footed. But the fact that bulls have borne most of the pain over the last three months, and that bears are not being given easy opportunities to get short, are yet more reasons to suspect a breakdown is nigh. In any event, we won’t pretend to know the outcome, but it might become easier to speculate on one if Mr. Market should inadvertently tip his hand this week with a meaningful tell, however subtle.
GCZ21 – December Gold (Last:1768.10)