The December contract will remain a bull trade at least until the 4760.00 target is reached, probably by no later than Wednesday. Judged on the basis of the pattern shown, and on the unsustainable trajectory of the rally leg begun three weeks ago, the Hidden Pivot target would seem to be an ideal spot to produce a major top. It will be short-able in any case, but we shouldn’t get emotionally invested in the notion that we’ve caught THE top. It will suffice to profit from the expected pullback, and to leave ourselves a small short position for a swing at the fences. Until then, the best way to get aboard with risk drastically minimized is to use ‘mechanical’ set-ups on the hourly chart or less. Stay close to the chat room and keep ‘Notifications’ turned on in your account dashboard if you want to be closely apprised. ______ UPDATE (Nov 10, 1:09 a.m.): I posted this chart in the chat room about four hours ago in response to a subscriber’s trading query. The pattern and my comments remain viable and were as follows: “Your pattern is fine, but the optimal entry point was at p=4667. 50 when it was first hit at 11:15 a.m. The reversal occurred exactly at the midpoint pivot, and any type of camouflage set-up would have worked to get you long with very little risk. p2=4659.00 is the next place you could attempt to bottom-fish. But p has been sufficiently battered to suggest ES wants to fall to 4650.50. The precise upturn from p implies that there will be an equally precise reversal at D.” I note further that ES has since followed one of our tongue-in-cheek rules — i.e., that all trends reverse at p2 in all time frames, all the time and in all vehicles. ______ UPDATE (Nov 10, 10:43 p.m.): The rally has sputtered out in a dangerous place, midway between p=4635 and our 4760 target. The target should still be considered likely to be reached, although it is no longer a done deal. Because this is the first real correction in a month, be alert to a possible avalanche that could begin at any time and on a quiet tape. Permabears may want to remind themselves when ES is falling that a collapse to x=4385 would generate an appealing ‘mechanical’ buy.
ESZ21 – December E-Mini S&P (Last:4654.75)