CLJ22 – April Crude (Last:112.23)

The sharp reversal from $100 last week was so predictable that it’s hard to take it seriously. Everyone has known that $100 is a psychologically crucial price, implying there is absolutely no way it will cap crude’s world-shaking ascent. Enjoy the correction while it lasts, since the new highs that are eventually coming will push gas prices above $6 in California and other places where fuel pretends to be scarce.  The 107.63 target given here earlier still obtains, and only a drop below the 87.46 ‘external’ low recorded on 2/18 would hint that it is not necessarily a done deal. _______ UPDATE (Mar 1, 9:10 a.m. EST): I can’t account for having overlooked the very major, 101.88 rally target shown in this chart, but here it is. A place for caution, to be sure, and to squeeze off a tightly stopped short if you know how. ______ UPDATE (Mar 2, 12:17 a.m.): Shorts will have gotten their faces ripped off by today’s spectacular bear squeeze, but their pain is the least of civilization’s worries. When energy used to power nearly everything on the planet is repriced to take today’s massive surge into account, it will turn that which lubricates global economic movement into something like glue.  Under the circumstances, the Dow showed chutzpah to have fallen a mere 500 points. Consider it an odd kind of distribution –the best the sleazeballs who manipulate markets professionally could do. But don’t expect the relative softness in selling to last much longer once investors get the message. The same bozos have also underreacted to the breathtaking rally in T-Bonds, but it, too, is about to overtake them with dread. _______ UPDATE (Mar 2, 8:44 a.m.): Speaking of bozos, here’s a chart I prepared last night that, if I’d remembered to include it with the update, would have told you in timely fashion precisely where April Crude was going — i.e., to at least 113.99_______ UPDATE (Mar 2, 7:53 p.m.): The midsession dip to the green line (x=105.37) shown in the last chart update signaled a trade that has been the most consistent winner in our bag of Hidden Pivot tricks. It was good for a gain of $11,520, or as much as  $23,000 if you held out for p2=111.12. D=113.99 remains viable and looks all but certain to be reached. _______ UPDATE (Mar 3, 7:56 p.m.): The April contract has met all of our immediate rally objectives and then some, capping the effort with what looks like a small, bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. Although nothing serious, resistance from the pattern should be enough to put the kibosh on crude’s runaway rally for at least a few days. So why, then, are the futures on a holy tear this evening,  threatening to blow past the intraday peak for a shot at$120 ahead of the weekend? The energy-using world will have to deal with soaring energy prices in one way or another, but we shouldn’t expect the scoundrels and child molesters who move the markets to remain inured to this grave economic threat for much longer.  If oil quotes keep rising, the Dow will need to start adjusting its way down to 20,000, and soon.