$TNX.X – Ten-Year Note Rate (Last:3.12%)


With long-term rates closing like a missile on my 3.24% target for the U.S. Ten-Year Note, I was compelled to double-check my math. The chart not only confirms the validity of the target, it offers a bigger-picture perspective on an ABCD pattern that is as gnarly as it is compelling. I’d previously used a daily chart to project an identical target, but the fact that the same persuasive, rules-based elements are present on the weekly chart makes 3.24% the number to watch. It is not short-able with the usual precision because its stopping power will be conflated with that of a top made in the same place in October 2018.  I have more to say about this in this week’s Morning Line commentary, so check it out if your curious about what a top in Treasury rates could mean for the U.S. economy.

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