TNX.X – Ten-Year Note Rate (Last:2.96)

One last head-fake to 3.24%?  That was my original target for a major top in interest rates. However, when the rally topped in May at 3.17%, I allowed for the possibility that it would stand as the high. Now, however, the chart pattern is looking more like a consolidation, implying a thrust to 3.24% is imminent. Odds of this would shorten if buyers can pop TNX above the 3.01% peak recorded on May 18. The novel concept of a peak in interest rates is based on the likelihood that rates are already high enough to send the U.S. and global economies into deepest recession, and on the recently begun collapse of the housing bubble.