TNX.X – Ten-Year Note Rate (Last:2.89%)

Odds are shortening that an important top is in. Rates on the Ten Year Note have come down steeply since peaking on June 14 at 3.48%. That left a 3.56% target I’d drum-rolled unfulfilled, but we won’t give up on it, at least not yet, since a a pullback to the green line (2.92%) would trigger an enticing ‘mechanical’ buy in theory. My trading bias was slightly bullish when the week ended, but a rally would have to hit 33.18, exceeding June 21’s ‘external’ peak by a tick, to become interesting. ______ UPDATE (Jul 1, 6:15 p.m.): Rates have receded from their June 14 peak of 3.48%, adding weight to possibility that an important high has been seen. The downtrend would become impulsive on the daily chart with a move below  May 25’s 2.71% low.