TNX.X – Ten-Year Note Rate (Last:3.10%)

Rates on the Ten-Year Note have come down hard since getting within an inch of a 3.56% target flagged here a while back. There were two other targets in play going back to October 0f 2021:  3.46% and 3.24%. Odds were good that an important top would form in the narrow band between them. This is notwithstanding expectations even now that that Fed will continue to raise rates. My hunch, which is an extreme outlier in a world obsessed with inflation, is that rates are  already high enough to snuff inflation without any further tightening. However, last week’s surge from 2.8% to 3.1%  reminds us that the so-far top is not chiseled in stone, especially since the selloff from the high did not exceed any significant prior lows.  For now we’ll simply monitor the chart, which is hinting of a run-up to around 3.29%.