October ‘Surprise’ Too Well Advertised?

The spread between permabulls and permabears is at an extreme these days, even for October. This is the month when pessimists’ hopes are highest that an epic bear market will correct dangerous excesses that have been building up in the financial system for more than 50 years. A presumptive and welcome side effect of such a crash is that it would reset things in accordance not with the designs of nefarious plotters, schemers and conspirators who meet every year in Davos, but in a more natural way that inflicts pain on borrowers and financial evildoers more or less in proportion to their sins.

We permabears should be careful what we wish for, however, since deep hardship affecting the broad middle class, the poor and even the very affluent could persist for a long time — perhaps a decade or more as occurred after the Crash of 1929. It is particularly troubling to consider that it took a world war in which 50 million people died to end the Great Depression rather than persistent fiscal and monetary meddling by the government. Anyone who thinks the Fed will ultimately lift us from the economic abyss into which we are about to descend should recognize that it is the banksters who will have put us there.

The Death of Wokeness

Meanwhile, it is unsurprising that some top technical forecasters disagree vehemently over what lies just ahead. One who sits in the pantheon of chartists says that, for cyclical reasons, the stock market is about to embark on a major rally. A colleague achieved instant success — soon to become notoriety? — with his own cycles-based forecast calling for a crash starting this week and continuing until the November election. Although I fear that a severe crash is coming that will tip the U.S. and global economies into a deflationary depression, I doubt that it will happen on the schedule of some guru whose predictions have been making banner headlines in the blogosphere. Mr. Market typically rebukes such hubris by causing stocks to lapse into tedium until the noise dies down. If he remains true to form, we should expect an eventless October and early November. Anything could happen thereafter, though, so beware of a sneak attack, especially if the election produces an upswing in America’s mood. It would be ironic but hardly surprising if stocks start to plummet just as most of us are celebrating the death of wokeness and relief from the nation’s self-destruction under Biden and one-party rule. [Are digital currencies coming?  I doubt it and explain why in this recent interview with Howe Street’s Jim Goddard. RA]

  • Robert October 22, 2022, 8:53 am

    A few days after I posted my article…


    Robert, please show more respect for your host. This is my forum, not yours, and etiquette requires that your comments firstly address whatever I have written about. Thank you in advance for complying with this request.


  • Robert October 20, 2022, 11:23 am

    Everybody is emotionally exhausted which mean the big guy bought the undervalued stocks and we are now ready for a short squeeze. And China is the most oversold. There is little inflation in China and chinese will move their money from real estate bust to the stock markets.
    Gold Miners are way too cheap and its the seasonality.
    SPY rebound from its fib50 on October 13.
    And we’ve got a momentum divergence on BTC which was rather stable lately compared to stocks & bonds.
    Who’s ready for a early Santa Clauss rally?

  • Robert October 19, 2022, 8:40 pm

    Before they can implement CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) they need to implement the digital ID chips implant. A chip with all your info on it, medical, personal, bank.
    Search for ISO2022. Central banks have pdf document and the time was to complete by Nov 2023
    “Fedwire will offer conversions services in both directions (Fedwire proprietory format vs ISO2022) to allow banks that have already migrated to those that have not.”
    Now that they have financialized BTC, it’s under controlled and correlated with the markets. But the big guys are accumulating at cheap price to sell to the retail guys for the mainstreetization mania phase that will bring BTC to 100k
    Check out my latest post on Consciousness & Transhumanism

  • RICHARD CHARLES October 17, 2022, 1:02 pm

    Kyev, Lowered Earnings Expectations, Mid-Terms, Record Cash and Pessimism suggest returnable Falcon 9 Launch Market.
    GS Target + 60 % from 304.14 to 486 with 3.28 % Dividend, 787 % Debt/Equity, Risk to 291.97.
    Beau regards Rick and Co.