Because it came precisely off a 64.25 Hidden Pivot target that was nearly nine months in coming, crude’s so-far 10% rebound should continue to run for several weeks or longer. However, it would take a print topping the 81.07 ‘external’ peak recorded on March 7 to generate an impulse leg capable of ending a bear market that saw crude’s price fall by a third since apexed last August at 101.66. If the recent low were to be exceeded, the futures would likely be headed down to approximately 56, a target culled from a continuous-contract daily chart with ABC coordinates on the same dates as the one shown in the inset. _______ UPDATE (Apr 3, 1:59 p.m. EDT): Crude has taken a lunatic leap to just above 81.07 today on news that Saudi Arabia plans to cut output by 1.5 million barrels per day. Credit our President, whose brain unfortunately is not sufficiently rotted to prevent him from driving an erstwhile ally into the arms of China, Russia and Iran. Because I never trust big countertrend moves when they’ve been triggered by headline news, I will raise the bar to 83.05 to signal a possible end to the bear market begun from 101.66 last June.  That’s a penny above an important peak recorded on January 23. _______ UPDATE (Apr 12, 6:23 p.m.): The May contract poked its greasy little snout above my 83.05 benchmark and even managed to close above it. I’ll reflexively raise the bar to 87.40 before I start trusting this heavily engineered rally. That’s a tick above a daunting ‘external’ peak recorded on November 7. I’ve never regarded cartel cutbacks in production as remotely sufficient to offset falling demand caused by global recession. The world desperately needs higher energy prices to support vast borrowings hocked against energy resources, and that’s why the rally is happening. When crude begins to fall anew, that will signal a new phase of deflation that will crush the remnants of the covid fiscal blowout.