DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:102.04)

The Dollar Index dipped below the red line (p=102.30, a ‘hidden’ support’) for the third straight week, but this time it closed beneath it, implying more slippage over the next few weeks to at least D=98.71. Although this will lighten selling that has weighed on bullion, it will also increase the intensity of the world’s nascent revolt against the dollar. The insurrection can only go so far, however, since the huge, largely unpayable debts that have piled up around the world are in dollars, effectively creating a massive short position against the greenback. This will ultimately come home to roost in the only way it can, via a deflation that liquidates all debts through bankruptcy. Economists and pundits seem to think the Fed will pull a ‘Weimar’ and hyperinflate the debt away, but there are a hundred good reasons why this scenario is an extreme outlier. I’ve written extensively on the topic over the last 30 years, but read Adam Fergusson’s When Money Dies if you want to understand why boxcars filled with dollars will not be a feature of America’s coming economic collapse.