TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:105.70)

Bond bulls could have locked up the 115.32 rally target shown in the chart with a small upthrust a couple of weeks ago, but they chickened out. The opportunity to generate a powerful impulse leg with a small move exceeding three closely-spaced peaks will have to wait for another day. Even so, the chart still says ‘bullish consolidation’ clearly. It is mildly bullish that three feints lower have failed to gift us with a ‘mechanical’ buy at the green line. When it finally happens, be prepared for the low to occur beneath x=102.99. _______ UPDATE (May 1, 4:07 p.m. EDT): TLT’s crash today looks like it still has a little ways to go. Bottom-fishing at D=101.90 with a very tight stop-loss looms as a decent bet. You can substitute call options if you prefer. _______ UPDATE (May 2, 10:45 p.m.): The low occurred below 102.99, all right–  15 cents below it. That was just before TLT reversed and took off like the bat out of hell depicted in the eponymous Disney animation. Mention having caught the low in the chat room and your name will be entered in drawing for a coat made from genuine snow leopard pelts.