Three weeks’ worth of gratuitous feints, thrusts and dives have yet to deliver a ‘mechanical’ buying opportunity at the green line, hinting that this vehicle will be on its way to D=115.32 once the dithering ends. It would take just a small push to ensure this, since there are three closely spaced peaks ranging up to December 7’s 109.68 that could conceivably be exceeded with a rally of just a little more than one point. This prospect complicates the logic of those who think the dollar is in trouble, since it is not mainly dollars that our many detractors around the globe hold as IOUs, but Treasury paper whose appreciation has alleviated the pain of weak U.S. currency.
TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:108.53)
