ESM23 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:4299.00)

The bullish stampede stalled briefly at the 4287.75 target signaled in early May, but the close above signaled more upside over the near term to at least 4331.50, a Hidden Pivot resistance shown in the chart that has been more than two months in coming. There are some additional point ‘A’ lows that could be used to project an even higher target, but I have not used them because the ‘B’ high did not exceed any prior peaks. That doesn’t necessarily mean the futures can’t surpass 4331.50, only that a target above cannot be considered precisely reliable. Please note that a swoon touching either the red or green line, however unlikely, would generate an appealing ‘mechanical’ buy. ______ UPDATE (Jun 5, 6:43 p.m.): The S&Ps sympathetically weakened when AAPL plunged today, but this seemed scant reason for concern. It happened because too many amateur traders were expecting the long-awaited unveiling of Apple’s ridiculously overpriced VR goggles to send the stock soaring. It did, albeit briefly and with help from the usual short-covering panic overnight. However, the subsequent dive was merely classic ‘buy-the-rumor-sell-the-news’  price action, probably signifying nothing. We’ll monitor AAPL closely nonetheless, since the selloff began from a high just nine cents from the 184.86 rally target I’d drum-rolled in the AAPL tout just above. _______ UPDATE (Jun 8, 4:54 p.m.): The trendline shown in this weekly chart has been breached only slightly, but it should not have been breached at all if the rally were about to reverse. The line is authoritative because the two peaks it connects came ahead of precipitous selloffs. If the futures close above the line on Friday or trade decisively above it, that would be yet another warning to bears against fighting the rally aggressively.

  • Gary Leibowitz June 11, 2023, 11:56 am

    Deflation? Kind of a wee bit off on that analysis. Your delusional assumptions match your political heroes fate. Last half of 2023 will see 40% drop from peak. 40 years of disinflation is a KNOWN trend and it is OVER! economics 101, you don’t deflate from an extreme jobs tightening and 10 million jobs begging to be had. “I” posted the outcome of banks debacle 2 weeks before it occurred. Easy call. All sectors rely on disinflation and all are grossly bloated. External events will continue and Trillions will be wiped out. Wall Street desperate for rate DROPS this year and for good reason. not going to happen. CPI/PPI will reverse big time and soon.

    %%%%%

    So very nice to hear from you, Gary! The last time, if memory serves, you were breathlessly excited about the prospect of YOUR hero, Michael Avenatti, taking down Trump. As I write these words, Avenatti is doing a 14-year stretch in a federal prison while Trump remains a free man.

    Anyway, thanks for validating my deflation thesis by agreeing that “trillions will be wiped out.” If that isn’t deflation in spades, then perhaps we’re all destined to get rich in the economic depression that even you seem to agree is coming. RA

    • Nantanshi June 14, 2023, 12:56 am

      Wow that aged well. CPI was a bullish reading and the Fomc will pump the SP500 even higher still. No crash