DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:99.94)

The dollar was plummeting when the week ended, so I’ve changed the view to graphically display a 99.72 target we can use as minimum downside objective for the near term. It is tied to a ‘D’ target at 93.55 given here previously that would equate to an 18.5% drop in the Dollar Index since it topped at 114.78 last September. This would leave it just a tad shy of ‘official’ bear-market territory, but considering the size of the market for dollars, it has suffered damage commensurate with a Category 5 hurricane. The dollar will have its day eventually when debt deflation rears up, but until then, debtors should be relieved that a strong dollar is not compounding their problems from higher interest rates. _______ UPDATE (Jul 15): Last week’s hellish plunge brought the Dollar Index down to the 99.72 target almost precisely. This is the midpoint Hidden Pivot support of a pattern projecting to as low as the 93.55 target noted above, and it must hold like a rock if the dollar is going to avoid diving anew in the months ahead. _______ UPDATE (Jul 18, 6:29 p.m.): The support is holding, but only barely. It is not a bullish sign that sellers have been pounding on it for a week.

  • BDC July 16, 2023, 8:34 pm

    A reasonable bogey is 99.11 which is the “Covid Line” (March 2020 average price).