The short-term picture is deceptively bullish and also stale, so I’ve replaced it with a longer-term chart that shows how little there is to hope for.  Nothing impulsive has occurred on the weekly chart since the futures made their low last October in the murky depths of the Marianas Trench. Assuming the Fed continues to tighten for longer than most of us would care to imagine, all of the flouncing around in Treasury bonds since then could turn into a distribution that would send TLT down to the low 90s for a test of support. There could even be a breach of the low, although it seems doubtful that the very high real rates that would imply could be achieved without toppling the global financial system. This poses quite a dilemma — one that for reasons I’ve long tried to make clear, can only end in a ruinous debt deflation.