TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:95.31)

TLT tripped a ‘mechanical’ sell signal at the height of last week’s run-up, which featured a powerful gap-up opening midweek. Buyers spent the rest of the week head-butting the green line where the short was signaled, making the ostensible opportunity seem less appealing at the closing bell. We’ll be better able to predict the next significant move once we’ve seen how this vehicle behaves on Monday, so stay tuned.  Sharp weakness would portend more slippage to D=88.93. _______ UPDATE (Aug 28, 6;39 p.m. EDT): TLT has given nothing back since a short squeeze pushed it sharply higher last Wednesday. This created a quite bullish ‘island reversal’ that has shortened the odds of a further run-up to D=97.84, the Hidden Pivot target shown in this chart.