Actionable Trade-Alert
from Rick in the Trading Room
(Please check all related discussion in the room before you do any trades.)
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Wednesday, August 28, 2024 |
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14:00 |
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14:51 |
RA: Got it, thanks |
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14:53 |
yea, this system is something pretty good. i.e. tsla 207.5 puts that turned precisely at 2.17 this morning and then rocketed away… and Rick showed me yesterday 24 hours ago, thats where it would happen. to the penny. |
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15:00 |
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15:07 |
This little pre-NVDA fright-mask frisson has stopped out the naked-short calls I’d suggested in QQQ, for a theoretical loss of $35 per contract. It has also negated the promising, 0.28 bid for them/ |
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15:26 |
Sold MSFT Oct4 410 Put $10.45 |
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15:29 |
Are the PM’s miners and bullion in a Wall of Worry or just settling back a bit or more for a breakout to new highs? Can’t pull the trigger! |
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16:00 |
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16:17 |
…if you want to see real coincidence, put up the 15 minute, 5 day charts of /MESU24 and NVDA side-by-side. |
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16:22 |
Bought back the shares I sold 8/20 in GDXJ and SLV.I’ve been taking some off the table on rallies and buying on pullbacks. I’m staying long but adjusting my shares and futures contracts accordingly. |
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16:22 |
MM-The true risk is not being invested now in the PM sector. I understand the drawdowns are uncomfortable and you may not wish to take alot of risk. Cut down your size to a manageable level. At least you’ll have some exposure and be able to sleep peacefully |
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16:25 |
Rick-nice call on NVDA. [ {{ Thanks, JJ. No pivots, just a feeling. RA }} ] |
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17:00 |
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17:50 |
Thanks JJ. Today may have been the day to load up! |
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Thursday, August 29, 2024 |
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08:00 |
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08:08 |
On to SIZ24 now? [{{ Yes. Thanks for the heads-up. RA }} ] |
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09:00 |
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09:33 |
24MM NVDA shares traded on the open. That’s a lot of options getting assigned. |
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09:48 |
Although the naked-short QQQ 479 calls that expire today got stopped out quickly yesterday, the second trade I recommended (see 14:35 post above) — the “less-risky” trade: buy the calls for 0.28 — has performed as expected. The calls opened this morning at 0.29 and reached 0.79 within three minutes. They are currently trading for 0.68, with marginally appealing potential to 0.94. // UPDATE 10:03: The calls spiked fleetingly to 1.19 before detumescing just as quickly. Exhausting. |
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10:00 |
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10:15 |
“detumescing”. I’m writing that one down. |
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10:22 |
LOL, my vocabulary expands each month on Ricks Picks, too |
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10:23 |
verb gerund or present participle: detumescing subside from a state of stiffness, swelling, or sexual arousal.”the erection he had detumesced immediately after orgasm” |
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10:24 |
I’m not sure what my subscription costs are, but how would one put a price on such enlightenment ? |
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10:29 |
Closed MSFT Oct4 410 Put $6.00 $445 per contract profit 1 day.Thanks Rick! |
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10:33 |
OMG! I’m dead matt |
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10:38 |
BTW, for those of you that keep up with such things, Rick is past due on one of his favorites. I’ll take a stab at it : “The options that I had suggested for purchase have been handled quite niggardly by the brainless twits who fabricated such a thimblerig intending our demise. “ |
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10:44 |
Matt: You just broke the interwebs. |
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10:48 |
just a cheap parlor trick Ace. |
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11:00 |
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11:40 |
I never knew what a “poltroon” was until Rick used it to describe Wall St traders :-). He is a wordsmith. |
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12:00 |
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12:23 |
Poltroon was one of H.L. Mencken’s favorites, but he used it to describe Southern rubes in general, and he modified it with the adjective ‘sniveling’. Extending insult to even more of us, he used ‘Boobus Americanus’ to characterize all of his fellow Americans. He moved from Germany to Baltimore when he was three, distancing him from any suspicion that his seeming dislike for Americans necessarily made him pro-Hitler. His 2100-page diary, which remained sealed until after he died in 1956, suggests he was, if not pro-HItler, then at least pro-Deutschland uber alles. He was not exactly a philosemite either, not by a longshot, but his writing, like Wagner’s music, is too satisfying for this Jew to shun him. |
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12:37 |
Rick had me a few years ago when he used the phrase “broad toss”. I literally started planning a party where we’d invite midget women, get liquored up and see who could throw said little women the greatest distance. |
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12:38 |
Good story |
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12:43 |
Mencken had some dandies, but perhaps the best of all was ” Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard. “ |
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12:50 |
A broad-tosser is a grifter who makes a living on the street offering the game of three-card monte. One of the cards he “tosses” is a queen — i.e., the “broad.” Your task is to pick the queen after he tosses them, face-down, a few times. John Scarne’s manual on how to do this expertly is a sought -after collector’s item that has been republished for $9.95. The techniques he details are amazing, akin to his ability to control dice with a ten-foot throw. |
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12:53 |
Mencken also said “Every decent man is ashamed of the government he lives under”. That was one of the very few bumper stickers I’ve ever put on my car. It was when I lived in Boulder, where any pro-Trump sticker was an invitation to get one’s car ‘keyed’. I had the Mencken sticker, a Ron Paul sticker, and another that said ‘Earth first, we can screw up the other planets later’. This combination would have been inscrutable to Boulder’s large TDS community, and so my car was never vandalized for ideological reasons. |
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13:00 |
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13:05 |
Some good tales in etymology! |
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13:09 |
Rick any thoughts on the mini-Dow? ATH a bit ago, how high will this sucker go? [ {{I am more focused now on the correction than on possible new highs. I saw no interesting opportunities this morning in either case, but here’s the chart that I’d suggest using for now: https://bit.ly/3AGmHEl It is gnarly enough to make you money trading off ANY of the HP levels x, p, p2 or D. A move above c=41,679 would necessitate redrawing the levels. Also, a strong bounce off p would imply new record highs are coming. // UPDATE: Just realized that the little p.o.s. missed a short-able target I’d had on my radar by four one-hundredths of one percent. Here’s the pattern, which Pivoteers may recognize as my very favorite (for a reason that is explained in the flagship course: https://bit.ly/3Tc3L74 RA }} ] UPDATE (4:16 p.m.): The futures subsequently trampolined from slightly below p=41,381. The subsequent bounce to 41,546 could have been worth as much as $825 per contract. |
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13:47 |
Rick – Would you give me your opinion of this BITX chart, it is opposite of your update BRTI chart. 4 hour 7/5 A – 25.13 B – 40.80 C – 18.82 D – 34.49. Looks to me like a 2nd chance Mechanical that I give a 6. [ {{{ A ‘mechanical’ buy at the red line, a trade we do only when a vehicle looks quite strong and has denied us an opportunity to board at the green line, is usually a good bet. In this case, however, the initial upside penetration of p was not decisive, so there is no guarantee that D=39.49 will be reached. Bottom line: If you get a chance to buy x-22.74 mechanically, be willing to exit at least half the position on a run-up back to p, for a one-level gain. Here’s the chart: https://bit.ly/3Z5wH49 RA }}} ] |
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14:00 |
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14:43 |
the advanced options trade with Rick today was a another dandy, “ridiculous” would be better way to say it. I got some of it bagged, but no where close to as much as I should have. friday 476 qqq puts, holy sh…. see for yourself. I had no clue it would do this…. totally amazing. |
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14:47 |
Spike: Just as I was typing my response to your 13:09 post, YM was fixing to dive. It nearly touched p, which was an obvious place to try very tightly stopped bottom-fishing. If sellers cush the invisible support, that will be signaling more downside to d-41,076. Note to newbies: I use lower-case coordinates (abcd) to denote reverse patterns. |
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15:00 |
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15:53 |
Roxy, regarding your 14:43 post, you did indeed have good coaching on those puts. They were trading for around 1.00 when I recommended bidding them at 0.38. They fell to an intraday low of 0.37 in under an hour, then launched to 1.17 within 45 minutes. A second-wind burst took them to 1.35, beginning a pause that recharged them for a final push to…6.50!! Cluelessness is beside the point. You needn’t possess clues, only a plan. Here’s the chart — read ’em and weep! |
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15:54 |
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15:57 |
… and that, Traderoom, is why you should take Ricks’ options course. The End. |
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17:00 |
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17:47 |
Thanks Rick, I’ll look for a short tonight. |
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18:00 |
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18:13 |
Thank you Rick, very clear explanation. |
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Friday, August 30, 2024 |
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09:00 |
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09:10 |
bottom fished crude on that drop, cha ching! |
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10:00 |
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10:00 |
Just a slow day for me, waiting for options to expire worthless. |
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10:37 |
Just bought back short calls on TLT. 96 Strike Sept 4 calls, covered for net $1.00 per contract. Thinking TLT (the Tizzle) breathes upward here in days ahead. |
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11:00 |
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11:48 |
Nice, Formula! |
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14:00 |
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14:15 |
Another full day shot to hell on tech “support,” so I am not able to follow the markets attentively today. |
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16:00 |
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16:02 |
No worries Rick have a good week end! |
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16:02 |
Have a great end-of-summer holiday, everyone! Seems like we just celebrated the Fourth of July. It’s hard to believe the summer passed so quickly. |
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16:30 |
You too Rickster! Get rested up, I have a feeling the next few months will be busy! |
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17:00 |
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17:45 |
Stay safe and focused this holiday weekend. |
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Sunday, September 1, 2024 |
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16:00 |
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16:24 |
I am asking anyone who can tell me. On which platform (or broker) can I see quality options charts online? I’m at IBKR, but the options charts there are sad to look at. Thanks in advance. |
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Monday, September 2, 2024 |
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10:00 |
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10:45 |
Well, there’s always Tradestation, whose charts can be annotated with Hidden Pivot levels by using the Fibonacci extension tool. Here’s a chart of QQQ 29 Aug 476 puts with HP levels added: |
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10:45 |
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10:57 |
I use PC-based Tradestation 9.5, but version 10 provides the same functionality online. I’m not aware of a freestanding, web-based tool that allows one to call up charts in any time frame, for any option, never mind charts that can be annotated and system-traded. |
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11:00 |
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11:51 |
Fibonacci extension tool: Can we order this from you or is it a Traderstation Standard Tool? |
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12:00 |
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12:08 |
jeps – it is standard in Tradestation |
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12:21 |
BTW – dates to key on in the next couple of weeks: Fed meetings / announcements, 0917-18 Tu-Wed; Index expirations (think ESU): 09/20, Fri. |
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13:00 |
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13:01 |
jeps, you do have to change your percentages from standard fibonacci numbers to the HP numbers. ( in tradestation ) |
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13:35 |
Interesting chat this morning with a friend who stays closely in touch with a household name (other than Bob Prechter) in the EWT world. A key concern of his is the possibility of a failed ‘e’ wave within a diagonal triangle top. The formation dates back to the 2022 low and must be judged in relation to faltering momentum as measured by the Coppock Curve. In plain language, bottom line: If the stock market does NOT break out here to at least a marginal new high, that would be EXTREMELY bearish. (It would also correspond to scenario #1 in my latest ES tout). Set strongly against this threat are price and breadth readings that remain inarguably bullish. This has created an environment that the EWT superstar, who forecasts privately as a consultant and has not gone public with these thoughts, calls the most confusing environment he has ever seen. Perhaps this mirrors the confusion of Harris’ supposed run for president, one of the most brazen psy-ops ever mounted by the unregenerate scumsucks who invent and control the news. |
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13:52 |
Tantal and jeps. See the Chat Room Help Page link below the input box. I trade with IBKR but I use Ensign Charts software when I draw the Hidden Pivot levels. Ensign uses the IBKR live feed for the charts. You can also feed the options. You can draw anything on the Ensign charts and have a live feed from IBKR. Please look at the Help Page and it will give you good info |
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14:00 |
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14:05 |
Some trading platforms have a built-in Fibonacci extension tool. Many don’t. It is not a stand-alone tool. |
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14:10 |
KGS, mattba, Catman, thank you I also trade IBKR and will see the Help Page |
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15:00 |
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15:06 |
I didn’t have a Fib drawing tool for many years. I used a Hewlett Packard programmable calculator and hand-drew Hidden Pivot lines on my charts. The online version is available by clicking on the ‘HP Calculator’ tab above. I used to include the Model 59 Hewlett as swag when the Hidden Pivot Course was offered “live” around the world for (if memory serves) $2500. I still have a few Hewletts — a somewhat valuable collectible, since it was their first hand-held programmable. |
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Tuesday, September 3, 2024 |
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09:00 |
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09:20 |
MSFT and the lunatic stocks are barely down, implying this post-Labor Day, welcome-back-suckers selling is fake, a ploy to shake down stocks and accumulate them. // UPDATE 10:50 a.m.): With the Dow off by almost 500 points, MSFT is STILL down just 0.61%. This reinforces the idea that the selling is just the portfolio chimps gratuitously rotating money. // UPDATE 1:32: The delayed savaging of the lunatic stocks today has changed the picture, raising the odds that the selloff could be the beginning of REAL selling. Because the chimps all think alike and move together in mechanical lock-step, we shouldn’t be surprised that they chose the most obvious day of the year to change direction — the day after Labor Day. |
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09:27 |
crude came within pennies of the C of home page tout. pretty large selloff this morning. |
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09:49 |
I’ve paused coverage of crude, since there is almost zero interest, least of all mine. The ‘C’ you’re referring to was not relevant for trading purposes, other than for us to assume crude will tend most of the time to lunatic the other way after it has taken out a previous high or low. Looks to me like the October contract is headed down to at least 69.77, but possibly as low as 66.84. The targets come from the hourly chart, where A= 82.40 on 7/5. If there’s anything that can make it reverse brutally, it is the premature sigh of relief from motorists enjoying seeing gas prices fall below $3. |
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10:00 |
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10:12 |
Sold Sept 20th, $28 strike puts on SLV, for $2.57. |
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10:17 |
Just pulled up the longest dated LEAPs I could find on TLT, January monthlies of 2026. I’m pondering whether or not to load up on some $140 strike calls for a buck. If TLT goes to $150 which I think entirely possible, could be explosive trade for sure. |
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10:23 |
TLT That’s pretty aggressive. TLT 150? Not saying it couldn’t happen, but before it gets there I could see a tsunami of fiat paper getting printed, thus capping the bond |
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10:26 |
Quite the fishing line smack down today in gold/silver |
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10:28 |
It is pretty big thinking but I do think it’s probably better than just a coin toss we see 150. I think 120 will be the level that needs to be tested first and act as a springboard. And yes we’ll see printing/ZIRP again, but price would then fly while yields collapse. |
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10:42 |
It’s obvious to me that you didn’t pull TLT 150 out of thin air, Form. The clearest technical picture I could ask for is this weekly chart, which projects to 150.12: https://bit.ly/4cPA7LM The U.S. and global economies would have to be in a very deep wallow to support that kind of demand for Treasury paper at yields that presumably would be under 2%. |
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10:45 |
TLT has tripped a theoretical buy signal at x=99.35 for such a move, and it looks like a decent bet to hit p=116.27, where the first important test would occur. T-Bonds are sufficiently reviled, execrated and detested at the moment that it’s almost certain a bottom is in. |
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11:00 |
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11:31 |
Putting aside my skepticism toward today’s programmed, mau-mau selling, I should mention that if it were to snowball for a week or two, that would perfectly fulfill my scenario #1 for an August 1929-type secondary top. |
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12:00 |
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12:07 |
I mean, if the US repeats the cycle, the pattern of print/spend whenever we inter into difficult times, I have to think it’s entirely possible the fed goes full nuclear on policy when we really hit the wall. What I’m struggling with is the idea that after whatever correction we see here in the coming months, I’m of the belief that the stock and bond market rally in tandem for a while, 12, 18, 24 months? Not sure but I can see both bonds and stocks getting wrecked after this relief period. Debt Crisis? Sure seems like that’s where we’re heading. |
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12:46 |
WEAT (wheat ETF) weekly looks like it has bottomed. https://tinyurl.com/4vanrwpt D target 4.71. actual low 4.71 |
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12:47 |
all grains have bottomed IMHO. |
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13:00 |
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13:16 |
It’s hard to believe that the absolute knowledge that a full-blown debt crisis cannot be avoided, and that it cannot be resolved other than via a catastrophic deflation, has yet to have any impact on the stock market — unless, perhaps, the impact has only begun to be felt…today. |
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13:22 |
Rick re: Scenario #1… same as the IBM headfake? I can’t overlay charts on my iPad. [ { No, IBM chart implies rally to marginal new high above earlier summer top. RA }} ] |
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13:25 |
I expect wheat to fall a further 40% before it bottoms. Below is a continuous weekly chart that shows why. Although the initial downside penetration of p was not decisive, the impulse leg that preceded it was text-book perfect. Also, the tight B-C leg, just a squiggle, completes my favorite pattern, which is usually reliable for precise predictions. Here’s the chart: |
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13:25 |
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14:00 |
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14:08 |
They are falling hard! See the 1:32 p.m. update to my post 9:20 just before the opening. |
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14:09 |
I will be out of the office for the remainder of the session. Happy trading! |
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17:00 |
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17:33 |
Maybe PM’s have bottomed here, for the short term anyway? |
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Wednesday, September 4, 2024 |
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10:00 |
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10:00 |
With sentiment quickly so bearish on the market wouldn’t one think it is time for a in your face short squeeze? I continue to hold the opinion that the shorts will continue to get wrung out for a few more months through grinding see saw action. When they are finally exhausted it will be time to short the market in size. Seems that that point hasn’t arrived yet. |
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10:57 |
Spartacus – Out of my depth with Rick, you and Formula – but I’d have to agree. This turn coincides with a structure that dji really likes (FVG – a Fair Value Gap about 08/15, ESU) . If one takes a look back to the 5120 level also ESU, we are still in the swing structure that suggests an advance by the ESU to 5750 before expiration. The big money may be lightening up but they aren’t bailing out… |
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11:00 |
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11:00 |
They are moving money to protect everyone’s standard of living – learning to ride whales is kind of exhilarating… |
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11:53 |
Quiet in here. Everyone is broke, or drunk. Maybe both. |
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12:00 |
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12:01 |
ZS- 3yr – A= 376ish, B = $85.50, C=259.75 . using Ricks advanced course I think a good point for a turnaround I have marked is around 108… [ {{ Not on Tradestation, it’s not. And why not use the one-off at 332,50? As long as you’re thinking ‘advanced’, can you give me the coordinates, on the weekly chart, of the reverse pattern that caught the big bounce in August from 155.25? RA }}} ] |
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12:01 |
Toe-GA! Toe-GA! Toe-GA! |
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12:07 |
Using Rick’s Advanced course, QQQ is a ‘mechanical’ buy today when it pulls back to 460.24 (5-min, a=467.89 on 8/28). For anyone who is here to make money, I mean. // UPDATE 12:45 p.m. EDT: Alas, the pullback has gone no lower than 461.14. Cancel the ‘buy’, even if ‘x’ is subsequently hit. RA }}} |
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12:21 |
Rick I am having real trouble finding your A on 8/28 [ 12-31-21] … i do not understand what 12-31-21 means here |
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12:27 |
regarding ZS- are you referring to the WEEKLY chart a-259.61, b-154.50, c-209 ?? [ No idea what you’re talking about. You need to identify the time frame of the chart you are using, and the precise location in time of at least the ‘A’ or ‘a’ coordinate. (Lower-case a/b/c/d always denotes reverse patterns) RA }} ] |
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12:52 |
QQQ: The seemingly minor breach of p=459.49 has likely doomed this gas-bag to more slippage to d=433.54, but at least to p2=446.47. The chart: https://bit.ly/3ARvCTG |
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15:00 |
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15:42 |
Rick, I know you said that you were not going to follow crude at the moment but it just finished a D target at 68.89. Is it worth a buy here? What are your thoughts? Thanks |
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16:00 |
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16:08 |
I last posted on October Crude yesterday morning, Babs, proffering a 66,84 downside target. As it happened, the p2 I’d noted at 69.77 at that time was good for a $1.69 rally, although you’d have needed to use a reverse pattern trigger no smaller than 40 cents to have profited. There was one available simply by using the visuallllly obvious a=72.89 from the 60-min at 11:00 p.m. EDT on 9-1. |
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16:46 |
thanks Rick |
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Thursday, September 5, 2024 |
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09:00 |
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09:50 |
Short 2, MESU24 @ 31.75 |
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10:00 |
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10:00 |
$5,531.75 [What is this number? RA } ] |
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11:00 |
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11:30 |
DIA falling for certain to at least 404.62: 30-min, A=416.55 on 8-30. Expiring 408 calls, currently bid 1.97 and rising, will fall to at least 1.13. They would trigger a ‘mechanical’ short at 3.98, stop 5.41. |
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11:36 |
In spite of agreeing with Spartacus’ view yesterday today’s breakdown makes Rick’s ES call the best ticket in the hopper… , takin’ the ride. [ {{ Using ‘camo’ triggers, it should never cost us more than literal pocket change to test the water. It’s still no big surprise that the thieving bozos who run the show would have chosen a time so ridiculously obvious as the day after Labor Day to throw the switch. RA }}} ] |
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11:42 |
Bought 2, MESU24 @ $5,500.50. Profit $315. |
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11:43 |
….That number on my chart was a %76, P2. [ {{ I think you meant 75%=p2. A good trade in any event. RA }}} |
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11:46 |
…Yes, thanks! |
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11:47 |
Bertie closing on my 54,701.28 target. As noted with hubris in my tout, this vehicle is “Easy pickings”. Let’s see if the Robin Hoodies and bitcoin dupes are paying attention. |
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11:55 |
MSFT went from bellwether to red headed step child, awfully quickly! |
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13:00 |
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13:19 |
This area of price ( ESU – ESZ – ESH25) is a level of anxious wait and see. One of the intermediate price reversal levels that I look at within the HP swings comes from a Larry Williams indicator that he credits to George Seamans (a pseudonym for Eli Branson) back in the 1940’s – this price range: is 5495 – 5475, a target from recent highs. A traditional swing target price identifies |
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13:26 |
5401 ( both sets of prices basis ESU) as an equally likely turning point not exactly in synch with the HP swings. After that a breakdown below 5350 seems like an invitation to fall back to 5120 or 10% lower. 10 and 90% fib levels have begun to figure more frequently of late – suggesting program turns in retracements that are still identifiable and so somewhat predictable if not tradable… |
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13:30 |
BTW: it is September … |
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13:52 |
apologies for the correction but it S/B : George Seamans = Ely Bramson…for the editors in the group |
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15:00 |
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15:10 |
MSFT is still the only stock you need to follow for an accurate, high-confidence read on the bull market. The 449.42 target is still very much in play; moreover, the stock would trigger a back-up-the-truck ‘mechanical’ buy signal if it falls just a little more, to x=401.54 (stop 385.57). |
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15:22 |
401.54 to 449.42 is a very nice 12% gain. How long would you say this trade could take Rick? [ { 30=40 days. RA }} ] |
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19:00 |
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19:18 |
I’m watching Rick. The only “problem” I have right now, is I’m down to my last tranche of calls on the stock, November 455 strikes that I sold, deep in the money when the stock was near the highs. It was a pucker fest but the client, is up nearly 300K on those 100 contracts alone. So I’ve been closing out 100 contract tranches for nearly two months now, X 600 contracts. It has been THE most difficult stock to sell options on for the last many years. My new nemisis however is….WMT~! This one really pissing me off |
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21:00 |
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21:22 |
Walmart has been a real pisser. The chimps think and act only on simplistic ‘themes’, and WMT has been their ‘last-retailer-standing’ theme as the working man has slipped into a 1930s bog. The stock, currently at 76.95, is certain to hit a minimum 78.49, where it will face HP resistance. If it gets past it, the path will be blocked again at 79.82, a Hidden Pivot that looks like easy money for shorts. |
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22:00 |
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22:31 |
I’m glad to get your thoughts on the Mothership, as I call it. I had a tick over 79 as being the final stroke, but truthfully, I thought 77 would have been THE top until they molested that level for days. |
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Friday, September 6, 2024 |
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07:00 |
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07:50 |
ES closing on 5429.38 target introduced last Sunday, then reaffirmed in the update. Price action at this midpoint Hidden Pivot support cannot but provide the ‘tell’ we need to determine the importance of Sep 3’s secondary top and the possibility that my scenario #1 (i.e., August 1929 repeating itself) is playing out. For confirmation, we will want to factor in MSFT’s expected bounce to 449.52 after it triggers a back-up-the-truck ‘mechanical’ buy at 401.54. |
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08:00 |
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08:09 |
Morning, Rick. My 10 D, 30 min. chart indicates MSFT touched 400.57 and bounced with a tail on the candle. Currently: 406.37. |
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08:10 |
…at 6:00 AM EST. |
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08:28 |
Fancy that! Indeed, it did — and thanks for the heads-up, Charles. I was barely stirring at the time, unable to back up the truck as I’d advised. But anyone who was awake and used my target to get long should take 25%-50% off here at 407-408 and save the rest for a swing at the fences. An impulsive stop-loss can also be used. |
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08:36 |
Although the Whoopee Cushion bounce has occurred from within two-tenths of a percent of ‘x’, I should repeat this for the umpteenth time: the green line is neither a target nor a Hidden Pivot nor a support, just a handy reference point for two types of trades we do: mechanical and conventional. It’s only a stupid, annoying coincidence that these bounces from x seem to refute me by beginning 90% of the time within a hair of the green line. Here’s what the Whoopee Cushion bounce looks like in stop-motion: |
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08:56 |
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10:00 |
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10:27 |
Amazing call Rick! |
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10:58 |
It’s Berry Junction for ES, which still has another 3.5 points to hit that VERY crucial support at 5429.38. Gotta buy it there/here, but with a very tight stop. Correct trigger interval is 27 points, but we’ll use that only to determine whether the bounce that is coming is capable of recouping this week’s losses. MSFT will continue to lead. |
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11:00 |
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11:05 |
Last week bot 2 9/13 qqq 415 puts @ .31. Swapped them yesterday for 9/17 420s for a total net cost of .59. Sold 1 this am @ 1.22. [ {{ Did you post the initial trade when you did it? If not, then this post would have no significance for anyone in the room. RA }} ] |
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11:07 |
Bitcoin’s so far slight overshoot of 54701 target is NOT a healthy sign. |
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11:25 |
The chimp flavor-of-the-month, Russell 2000, is showing the most fraudulent pluck today among the indexes. The E-Mini has yet to hit a clear-as-day p=2105.10 on the hourly chart, so it should be watched for signs it’s leading a turnaround. It is nearly as good a proxy for chimp-think at the moment as MSFT. |
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11:29 |
how do you decide which of the indices to watch for these purposes? I know everyone has their favorite (e.g. Armstrong loves the DOW, etc.) |
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11:29 |
For Rick or anyone else who can answer, on the touts, what contract is recommended, or how far out should we buy? For example, with MSFT? [ {{{ MSFT’s turn came at 6 a.m., 3.5 hours before options started to trade, so you would need to have bought the stock to take advantage of my target. Generally speaking, you should buy puts and calls with a week left on them if you’re thinking very long-term, but options with just three or four hours left on them is where the easy money is. If there’s only an hour or two left in the day, then go out to the next day. This works for QQQ and SPY, which have same-day options and one-point strike intervals. Typically, using cheapie options priced below 0.70 or so, you should look to double or quadruple your money in under 90 minutes. The strategy is different if you are naked-shorting options as scalp-trades, since you’ll have time on your side. Naked-shorting provides micro-opportunities all day long that are easy and extremely low-risk. RA }}} ] |
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11:34 |
Long 3x MESU24 @ 5444… that was a nail-biter! (still is). [{{{ Chas: After 5429.38 got touched for the first time, I took the money and ran at 5441.50, using (on the 1-min chart) a=5431.75 (10:58 a.m.) and, initially, a 5435.50 entry trigger. RA }}} ] |
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11:46 |
I hope nobody owned this miner. www.tradingview.com/chart/RQk2E3Yl/?symbol=TLT [{{ Won’t open. Requires log-in. RA }} ] |
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11:53 |
sold them, cut loss at $338. Just read post after sale , thanks! I`ll get back in… not hurting. |
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12:00 |
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12:02 |
just bought back 2 @ 5424.75 …will see. |
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12:03 |
Yesterday you pegged DIA as headed to 404.62. Hit 404.36 @ 1150 |
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12:07 |
Looks to me as if that is a D of the pattern. Or is that one of the interim numbers? |
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12:08 |
of a bigger pattern |
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12:09 |
Rick: Bought MSFT @ 401.56 [ {{ Beats losing, Jeps, but the first time MSFT touched my target was where I’d intended the buying be done. I’d suggest taking a small, partial profit so that you can’t lose, and retaining 25% of your position for a four-bagger. Although MSFT’s low is holding, ES’s hefty, 17-point overshoot of my target has unfurled the yellow flag. RA }} ] |
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12:38 |
Bap et al.: Here’s a detailed chart of DIA with annotations. It explains how I ‘knew” DIA would fall to at least 404.62. (The slight overshoot can be bottom-fished with risk under tight control, but the slight overshoot of D is bearish.) The run-up to x=410.57 provided a textbook opportunity to get short ‘mechanically’. The key to the chart — i.e., the reason everything worked — is that A-B was not sausage; that is, it was a legitimate A-B impulse leg because the ‘B’ low exceeded the prior low. If it hadn’t, the pattern would have been much less reliable for purposes of forecasting or trading. Here’s the chart: |
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12:38 |
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12:54 |
this keeps up then perhaps the fed is scared of a kamala presidency and willing to allow the market to tank |
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13:00 |
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13:07 |
As the now-15-year-old bull market has demonstrated, the stock market doesn’t care even slightly about events in the real world, particularly corporate earnings or elections. The market is about as prescient as a sack of nails, and its broad cycles ’cause’ news to happen, to the extent our perception of events is colored by the ups and downs of stocks. The tail wags the dog. |
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14:00 |
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14:05 |
Closing shorts now in: AXP, COF, CVNA, AXON, leaving some other names on table. But want to start reversing here in case of a ripper, which seems possible if not altogether likely |
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14:12 |
Bought SIL $30.23 Bought GDX $36.41 |
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14:15 |
Possible if not yet likely Form, is that the selloff is only just beginning. ES has exceeded a crucial midpoint support by a whopping 17 points. And although 401.54 is holding in MSFT, that is not a support, Hidden Pivot or a target, just an ‘x’ level to be used for bottom-fishing (and not necessarily at that price). The low gave way to a very profitable, $10 rally, but it could prove to be just a fleeting bounce. If the selloff takes out 385.58, the ‘C’ low of the pattern projecting to 449.54, the bull market will probably be over. At the moment, MSFT has about an 85% chance of falling to at least 398.21, which would take out today’s low. It also implies bulls shouldn’t get their hopes too high for a short-squeeze to end the day/week. |
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14:35 |
Thanks Rick, keep the bullets (points that is) coming. I know I speak for most in here that it’s appreciated right now, the tape has gotten fast for sure. |
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14:40 |
Speaking of the tape, RTYZ24, chimpanzee darling, is within an angstrom of the 2105.10 target mentioned above. A key support. |
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14:45 |
Bought 4 SIZ24 contracts before silver closed at 1:25 EST, seemed a bit oversold short term. I can see it making its way lower, but will grind a little higher into the end of today. |
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15:00 |
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15:09 |
Keeping an eye on $BRTI Rick, very interesting the way it blew through 54,701 and kept going. Looking forward to your Sunday tout. |
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15:12 |
kerr, BRTI, or rather BTCUSD as I follow/hold is well within a massive bull flag started on March 14th of this year. Snap a parallel channel on that sucker, you’ll see exactly what I’m referring to. I won’t grow terribly concerned unless we break below the lower bound of the bull flag. This whole thing, smells like a massive shake out to me, I’m even now thinking the SPX might do the same here if it reverses powerfully in the coming days. |
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15:23 |
Rick, gun to head on more immediate direction in TLT if you wouldn’t mind. I had 102-104 in my immediate sights but she looks tired. What does the time machine say about a pullback, price wise, if we get one? |
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17:00 |
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17:39 |
Could someone take a look at vax companies (like NVAX or SIGA? It’s interesting Novavax was $225 in 2022. And now it’s $11.63. They will start pushing a new pandemic and vaccines in October, I believe. Thanks |
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17:55 |
Thanks Form, enjoy a safe a productive weekend my friend. |
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19:00 |
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19:19 |
You too Kerr! Gorgeous weekend on deck in the Ozarks! |
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20:00 |
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20:21 |
SF: Vrax and EGS also interesting. I have similar sentiments as you |
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Saturday, September 7, 2024 |
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08:00 |
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08:42 |
Bull Flag in BTC, reversed, right on flag support, per my comment yesterday. https://www.tradingview.com/x/7KFC8ESf/ |
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Monday, September 9, 2024 |
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01:00 |
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01:54 |
Watching USZ – not TLT, I’d note that part of the price action in Bonds may have been connected to the USU – USZ rollover 09/06…, most likely part of a bigger picture but maybe cooling off this week as the USU 24 Open Interest is virtually exhausted. |
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04:00 |
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04:25 |
Full disclosure: Thursday last week in /MESU24: profit $315. Friday bought and sold twice: Loss on week, netto: $ 153 – eliminated Thursday`s gain. Lesson: Don`t fight the tape. |
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04:37 |
…and sell quickly when a low HP target is achieved and you are “short”. |
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07:00 |
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07:35 |
sold 4 SIZ24 last night, .215 per contract profit from the Friday position, flat now. |
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12:00 |
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12:43 |
Bought Silvercrest- SILV $7.67, MAG Silver- MAG $12.02, Calibre Mining- CXB.TO $2. 22 CAD |
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12:44 |
hey Rick – your GCV2024 target should be 2770.6 (your B leg is off). I like how the B-C leg consolidated nicely. Measure the start of the move to the midpoint of the consolidation and double that move. No coincidence the D target matches this. tinyurl.com/4n7jecvw [ {{ Thanks for the heads-up. I’ve corrected the error. RA }} ] |
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13:00 |
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13:29 |
SILV – some D targets around 6.85 to 6.81 https://tinyurl.com/ja28c8wk |
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14:00 |
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14:30 |
Thanks DJI, i am loving this one |
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14:48 |
which one crown – GC or SILV? |
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15:00 |
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15:33 |
DJI Thank you for the charts. Instructive! |
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16:00 |
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16:31 |
well both- but def the SILV |
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Tuesday, September 10, 2024 |
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10:00 |
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10:45 |
crude getting smoked. |
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11:00 |
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11:15 |
Anyone else’s TOS not working. Again… |
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11:27 |
Is America ready for $2.75 gas? Regular falling to $3.00 has marked the turning point umpteen times. On the other hand, a 66.84 downside target in October Crude looked like it would be granite, and yet it has been pulverized, which is bearish. |
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11:42 |
SIZ24: p=28.160 is a back-up-the-truck number, even within a conventional pattern: 60m, A=29.47 on 9-6. Too bad it failed to get there before this psychotic bounce, |
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11:45 |
Formula: Walmart will make a tradable top here, at 78.56; or at 79.42. The 20 Sep 78 puts were my choice, but I missed buying the 0.64 target that I only just discovered, and I am unwilling to pay a current 0.73. . |
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12:00 |
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12:00 |
Crown My TOS is out too. |
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12:18 |
Speculative short in Oct Crude: 66.04, stop 66.07. |
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12:23 |
My TOS crapped out while I was making a trade. It said it could not confirm my order while reconneciong. I had to restart. I have had many problems trading since Chuck took over. |
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12:30 |
Just now seeing your WMT comment Rick, thank you! |
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13:00 |
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13:09 |
Thanks for SIZ24 Rick, been wondering what it’s been telegraphing, have a 2 contract short on from last night at $28.72 I shoulda covered earlier. Hanging in for now. |
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13:25 |
Cancel the short in crude. A thrust moments ago pushed the October contracts to within a nickel of my target, and it has since sold off 26 cents. However, our odds would be somewhat less favorable if we were to attempt to get short with a ‘sloppy seconds’ push to the exact target. Doing these trades only when they turn from exactly where we want them to turn is how we reduce risk to a threshold so low that few traders would believe it possible. // UPDATE 1:45: This exercise was intended to show that we can trade even the most rabidly vicious vehicles, risking just pocket change. In this case, we risked $30 per contract theoretical on a reversal that 20 minutes later went on to produce a theoretical gain of $420. These are Crude oil contracts, mind you — 1000 barrels per copy. |
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13:25 |
don’t be afraid to call Schwab and fuss at them, I did a few times. they need to know the issues. I’ve been frustrated as well |
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13:30 |
rick – ok I was wondering what that short was— you posted short 64.04 but I think you meant 66.04. [ {{ No avoiding these outrageous rickisms. Has to be mad cow disease, or something. When I was 25, as state editor of the Atlantic City Press, I could put out two editions of a newspaper stoned without screwing up. A stage brat named Betsy D. did a tap dance for her talent routine in a local beauty contest and won the competition. Stoned headline, mildly abusive: ‘Girl Apes Bolger, Kelly, Wins Top Banana’. Another great stoned headliine, when Nixon played piano for Pearl Bailey at the White House: ‘Nixon, Pearlie Boffo in East Room’. RA }}} ] |
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13:46 |
lol |
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13:48 |
monkey pox hasn’t made landfall yet…. has to be mad cow! LOL |
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13:50 |
A short term form of dyslexia is a consequence of lack of sleep – it can also be a result of MSFT’s attempt to run everything through its cloud based servers – the typing rhythms that we have established are suddenly out of synch with the keyboard/display time constants because of signal latencies that no one talks about…, or admits to. |
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13:54 |
That’s interesting, Walter, since I was twiddling my thumbs at 4 a.m last night, wondering if I’d inadvertently consumed something containing a lot of caffeine. |
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14:00 |
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14:07 |
WMT hit your target rick [{ Indeed. This chimp-run carny game added $4.39 billion of fraudulent dollars to the ‘wealth effect’ today. The neat thing is that more than $3 billion of those dollars were materialized in just a few minutes, with relatively few shares changing hands, on the opening bar. RA }}} ] |
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14:10 |
I just opened a letter from Lane Watson, an ACHS Class of ’67 gal who has planned a 75th birthday celebration for us at the Jersey Shore on Sep 22. It is a list of deceased classmates — three pages of them, two columns per page, double-spaced. There are three or four suicides on the first page alone. Bruce Robinson, amazing athlete known as ‘Cousin South’, was one of the first to go — in 1969,,.partying, drunk, off the end of a pier. Mike K., class clown, hanged himself in 1998. And nurse Rita C. left this world in 1974 when she found out her physician husband was cheating on her. This list cannot be much different from any list of high school grads anywhere. The late Jimmy Kauffman, a physician, would be a standout exception. He fatally shot his wife, a popular radio personality, in their Gladstone Avenue home. However, with the help of one of the best criminal lawyers in New Jersey, he avoided charges for years even though everyone knew he’d done it. His business partners were biker drug dealers, and Jimmy “hanged himself,” Epstein-style, shortly after he went to prison. |
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14:24 |
the dirty little secret is all forms of stress reduces your lifespan and exercise stresses your body. look up life expectancy of athletes, body builders and marathon runners– all a good 5- 10 years lower life expectancy. That’s why the system keeps telling everyone to regularly exercise and eat your salads. Me– I avoid exercise and I try to eat 100% carnivore. |
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14:31 |
NQ hourly 18890.25 https://tinyurl.com/wm795dtj |
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14:33 |
But sex stresses the body in a good way, right? Regardless, that’s how I want to check out — that, or getting shot by my teenage lover’s boyfriend. |
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14:36 |
yes sex is exercise and it’s one of the few exceptions I make to my longevity plan 🙂 |
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16:00 |
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16:08 |
Bot 2 wmt 9/20 puts @ .47 |
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16:22 |
Crown – Late to answer but I have experienced no problems with TOS today. |
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16:28 |
Good to see U in the room David. |
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16:29 |
DJI. That’s why my mother in-law is somehow still alive. Never lifted a heavy object or put her body under any load in her life. Now at 84, she can’t walk cause she has no muscle integrity or the like, but she’s alive and enjoying her final days playing candy crush. |
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16:29 |
14:33 – LOL! |
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16:58 |
But you do deny women your essence, David, right? |
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Wednesday, September 11, 2024 |
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08:00 |
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08:57 |
Russell 2000, a chimp fave, is losing its struggle to hold p=2105.10 of a pattern that projects down to d=1940.20 |
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08:59 |
Dec Bonds can be bottom-fished at 125^27, stop 125^22. (60-min, a=125^23 on 8/21) |
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09:00 |
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09:06 |
E-Micro Nasdaq, with a so-far high this morning of 1809.25, is a short using a 43-point trigger interval. Risk is $2/point, or a theoretical $90 per contract. |
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09:18 |
If today’s DJT pre-market is any indication, Kamala “won” yesterday…. |
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09:35 |
November Crude could fall to p2=51.07, or even D=36.45 (!!) if it cracks p=65.70. I am not certifying those numbers, however, because the pattern is very sausage-y (continuous weekly chart, A=130.50 on 3/11/22)- |
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09:53 |
Rick thanks for the Walmart pick! I have a trailing stop in for guaranteed profit now. Thank you! |
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09:57 |
Also just made $48 on MNQU24. Thanks |
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10:00 |
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10:08 |
Great! Thanks for the report, CG. Immediate target for MNQ24 is 18,697, which would deliver a theoretical profit pf about $260 per contract. If 18,697 doesn’t hold, your swing-for-the-fences target would be 18,294 (!). Even then, I would expect a tradable, if possibly fleeting, bounce, from exactly 18,611. |