The unconventional pattern shown implies that TNX would be a short if it  rises to 4.42%.  This means interest rates on the 10-Year Note could be at or near a cyclical top at that level. If we treat the graph as we would any other, a fist-pump through c=4.59% would imply that rates are about to rise sharply. But if the ‘mechanical’ aspect of the trade works the way it’s supposed to, rates could be on their way down to as low as 3.90% if they reverse at 4.42%.