Is this rally for real? We’ll probably have our answer this week, since this vehicle will either vault above the ‘external’ peak at 88.21 (see inset), or it will chicken out and pull back to form a distinctive low before taking a running start. The first scenario would be more bullish, but the second would be no disqualifier. In either case, we’ll monitor minor ABCD retracements, since they should not reach ‘D’ if the rally is going to continue. Correspondingly, ABCD rallies of minor degree should easily surpass p midpoints, and even D targets, for the bull to remain halethy. These rules should hold true even for patterns that play out in an hour or less on the one-minute chart. FYI, the most immediate target for a tradable pullback low is 86.42 (assuming 88.16 is not exceeded first; that would shift the target higher).
$TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:87.39)
