I’ve raised the bar somewhat so that we don’t get suckered by yet another failed rally. I’m already on record as saying the bear market ended, possibly with October’s 82.42 low.  But I’d feel more confident about this if TLT takes an uncorrected leap above the two peaks shown. If it relapses instead, I would still expect no worse than a marginal penetration of the October low, followed by an explosive rally that leaves little doubt that an important trend change has occurred.