Actionable Trade-Alert
from Rick in the Trading Room
(Please check all related discussion in the room before you do any trades.)
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Thursday, July 23, 2026 |
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05:00 |
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05:22 |
Gluggle’s psychotic, 7.0% swing overnight bottomed at 326.22. That’s 0.08%, or 27 cents, from my target. A relapse would probably put in a new bottom at 321.79, the alternative target that I identified. TSLA, which, like Gluggle/Alphabet, announced unbeatable sales and revenues, plunged 6.0% overnight to a low that fell within 0.3% of my target. This gave the mouth-breathers who invent the news at Bloomberg, WSJ et al. the chance to explain, as they invariably do, that the earnings, even though spectacular and above estimates, still somehow “disappointed” “investors”. Whatever these nitwits (and Cramer) say, a temporary bottom is in, or at least very close, for the johnny-one-note, chimpanzee theme of overinvestment/underinvestment in AI. I say “temporary” because an absolutely certain AI crash is coming sooner or later that will make the dot-com crash look like a picnic. |
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06:00 |
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06:06 |
Side note: Companies did not always change their names just for the fuck of it. General Electric stuck with that name even as it evolved from making appliances to lending money. Ditto for Sears, whose orientation shifted from merchandise to real estate/finance during the 30 or so years it took for the company to asphyxiate itself. That is why I don’t acknowledge the names “Alphabet” and “META” in my analyses and commentary. Meta has already flopped as a meme, and “Alphabet” is just too cute and whimsical for a company that has grown increasingly comfortable being evil. (Monsanto, incidentally, chose to deep-six its accursed name when it got itself acquired by kraut-owned Bayer. But this was after they’d soldiered on for years as a company increasingly vilified for propagating cancer and squashing family farms. But I digress…) |
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08:00 |
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08:55 |
Coming into this morning, with the highest cash balances, and short duration treasuries I’ve had (in my models) since late February. I’ll likely be green as I’m holding widows and orphan stocks and a sprinkle of the metals complex which I think needs one more flush lower, perhaps a big one. Yesterday was VIX OPEX. Holding firmly that next week things go to hell. Personally, hoped for another spike higher in the chips so I can short more. |
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09:00 |
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09:03 |
lots of AI companies reporting next week and there earnings will likely be good, so caution warranted. [[[{{ Good like TSLA and GOOGL? RA }}} ] |
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09:09 |
This really is a traders markets. I have had days where I am both long and short AI. MY longs did well and down on shorts but overnight the shorts went profitable. We have all been predicting the market to crash for a decade everyone here included. |
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09:09 |
On the hourly chart, there is just one more target I have to offer for the chimps’ gangbanging of TSLA: 337.91. I’ve got a stink bid in just above. Currently 343. With no chimp bids overnight, AMZN is freefalling, so I will cover my stock on the opening, somewhat above the original 234.12 objective. |
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09:17 |
ronbl, my biggest shorts are put spreads so my risk is defined. That said, AI is beyond priced for perfection. I’m more of the opinion of what’s already baked into the biggest bubble cake that I’ve seen in nearly 30 years of doing what I do? I do think the mansplaining and mental gymnastics will continue until that levy breaks, which is imminent. |
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09:21 |
I am thinking it will be at or near the end of the earnings season. The great earnings can cause huge rallies but when that is over likely it bursts. |
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09:26 |
QQQ, currently 694.70, will trigger a buy at 693.13, stop 686.75. Let’s see if the 690 puts, last 0.40, open at 5.25 where I want to sell them //9:32 No such luck, although the 3.56 price, was predictable. It was also the sleaziest ripoff I’ve seen since my market maker days, since the next print was below 2.00. No one will be prosecuted. |
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09:40 |
Covering 25% of my Bitcoin short $1 below basis. // 9:45 Shorted AMD 556.20, It tripped a sell signal at 543.30, stop 561.48. // 9:51 Covered half the AMD at 550.00 |
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09:44 |
TSLA below the 337 [{{ I am long with a Nick stop. RA }}} ] |
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09:46 |
SEMIS ignoring the market and up green. |
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09:47 |
HUT up 10 dollars. Manic stock |
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09:47 |
Thanks for the crude tout,Rick. [{{{ Ur welcome. Glad you evidently were able to make hay with it, Dufus. RA }} ] |
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09:54 |
Boy, the chimps are REALLY hating TSLA this morning. Down more than twice as much as the next biggest Lunatics loser // Bitcoin (GBTC) would actually trigger a BUY at 48.16. Currently 50.25, I am still short 75% of my original position from 51.34. |
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09:56 |
Thanks from me too Rick Viz Crude. |
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10:00 |
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10:02 |
Long QQQ from 693.21 (see above), took 25% profit at 695.23. (It bottomed 8 cents above the target I advertised at 9:26.) Anybody home? |
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10:05 |
Too hectic. I’m done for today providing ringside commentary and explicit, tradeable guidance, since there is no apparent interest in these trades, even if nearly all of them have been profitable. Turning points, other than in TSLA, have been within 0.1% or less of actual. |
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10:06 |
haha, just read the “Nick stop” |
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10:10 |
Long TSLL at $8.16. |
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10:13 |
bought SPY @ x = 740.57 |
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10:19 |
Only green for me is SMCI. Bonds, retail, staples…all down |
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10:22 |
Tsla…beating dead horse. Better bottom here soon or I am out |
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10:24 |
Me too Fred. Thanks for your touts Rick. I’m quite busy on this job or I’d participate more. AMZN and crude today thanks good trades. Cautiously long on Brent atm in case it pushes to 100. |
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10:28 |
Bmw red after 3 weeks…arggggg…my one European stock. |
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10:43 |
Msft hit ricks target and has busted through. Started a position |
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10:54 |
stopped out of SPY |
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10:55 |
Msft back up the truck price is $376.??, yes? [{{ I did not say to back up the truck at that price. RA }}} ]] |
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11:00 |
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11:03 |
I thought rick wrote 383 recently? |
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11:05 |
383.77 |
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11:05 |
fred i think you were remembering the cents as the dollars |
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11:11 |
I must have missed that. Went long at main page tout price. Hopefully it will end well. Edit no too soon. misread it. |
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11:23 |
From msft tout…a pullback to the green line (x=376.57) should be bought ‘mechanically’ with a stop-loss at 349.19. |
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11:24 |
Out of Tesla. It’ll probably turn round now. [{{ Yes — at 318.52. Currently 319.25, off 318.90 low. WORST CASE: 291.81 (!) RA }}} ] |
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11:25 |
oh, i was looking in the chat from last week, ur right fred |
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11:29 |
SEP Crude headed to shortable, 93.50 top. Currently 92.71. |
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11:36 |
SPY, by the way, has breached a triple bottom. A more important double bottom lies near 724. Currently 736. |
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11:38 |
thank you rick |
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11:43 |
Rick: Made a nice haul from your crude tout on Sunday. Thank you! |
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11:54 |
TSLA, the bleeding hemorrhoid, has in fact bottomed three cents from the 318.52 target that I billboarded half an hour ago (see above). With the stock up $5 since then, I am exiting half of a position acquired pennies off the low. Any other success stories to report here in Lurkerville? I feel like I am wasting a great deal of effort posting these informal trades. It is costly because I often lose a step on my own trading strategies. RA }}}} ] |
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11:57 |
Not yet. Bagholder, waiting on that MSFT bid though. Not going to crack $377 today??? Close enough for government work maybe |
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12:00 |
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12:04 |
I bought options on TSLA at your post and exited just now for a nice profit that made my day green |
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12:07 |
Thanks for the crude oil update Rick, holding my UCO from the oil slide (average cost with oil just below 80), will look to sell as oil approaches 93.50. |
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12:11 |
Short grude at 92,35 stop loss 94,35 |
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12:18 |
I can assure you your timely advice is hugely appreciated Rick [{{{ There is no way for me to know this, Matt, unless subscribers acknowledge my posts in some way. I am not sure why lurkers are even here, if not to trade. I will need to cut back in any case, since posting all of my day trades in real time is just too hectic. RA }} ]]] |
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12:30 |
Rick not be around as much but yes I did get your tsla short trade for the last 30$ of the dive… thanks sir … |
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13:00 |
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13:04 |
Love the fact that you are posting it R.A. but going to be honest , you are just too fast for me. I am more of a swinger trader anyway, so look after your trading first!! [{{ I’m more of a swing-trader myself. But I wanted to give subscribers a palpable sense of how many excellent opportunities there are in a given day, especially when one is not fixated on one stock for some “reason,” or playing a hunch. RA }}} ] |
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13:13 |
MU watching, A-858.90 – on 7/20 .B -996.30 C- 923.55 – gnawing at the p 992.25.On a 4 hr chart. The 5 min chart – a- 957.03 – 6.10 am on 7/23 b – 1001.43 c- 975.76 went past p2 – d target 1020.16 |
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13:31 |
Hey Rick, had a break in the action from my real job and just popped in here and am trying to catch up on what’s been happening here and in the markets. For me, I always appreciate your timely updates and trading opportunities. Many times I cannot act fast enough to pull the trigger and, in all honestly, being green, many times I am afraid because I don’t fully understand why I would be doing the trade. Regardless, they still provide me fodder to chew on and use as examples to understand your method whether I actually make a trade or not. Also, at the moment, I am trying to keep my trading a little simplified and contained only to SPY and QQQ. Most days, it is hard for me to track counts on more than one. [{{ A wise choice. You can make as much as you need trading just one of those vehicles. RA }}} ] |
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13:48 |
Yeah in on Tesla Rick. Missed the little peak. Will be glad when this job is over on the 5th. I’m checking and placing a few trades but can’t interact much. AMD short is looking good thnx. Did you have a target in mind? I just closed half of it. [{{{ I would reverse the short position at 504.48. Currently 534.20, so the little gas-bag has farther to fall. RA }}}} ] |
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13:58 |
Rick, just covered a SPCX short based on your earlier observations. Made a years worth of Ricks Picks dues. Thanks!!! [{{ It kills me the way Bloomberg, WSJ and all the others have done 1000-word stories on SPCX’s plunge, but without answering the only question anyone really cares about — i.e., at what price will the carnage end? RA }}} ] |
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13:59 |
All good, thankss! |
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14:00 |
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14:06 |
Since Crude has reached 93.50, let’s see whether it will drop or not! |
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14:12 |
Thanks again, Rick! If only gold and silver would behave [{{ Who cares whether they behave? As long as they move, they’re tradeable. RA }}} ] |
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14:18 |
The forecast (see 11:29) is not looking too shabby, Nick, since a short at the 93.50 target I billboarded three hours ago on the way up would have caught the exact-to-the-penny top and produced a profit so far of as much as $820 per contract in mere minutes. That is certainly enough to cover half if you did the trade // 14:30 …and now the profit would be as much as $1450 per contract, since crude has plummeted 1.49 to a so-far low of 92.01 |
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14:25 |
Thanks Rick re AMD. Short on crude. [{{ Minimum downside target for reaction in Crude was 92.28, so some profit-taking is definitely warranted. RA }}} ] |
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14:35 |
Rick you are expecting further drop in crude since your trade worked perfectly so far!!? [{{ C’mon, Nick! Are you really asking me that question? You act like I have a crystal ball. I don’t need to ‘expect’ anything more at this point. Put $150 in Rod’s pocket, though, and I will take another stab at expecting. RA }}} ] |
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14:35 |
All done. Nice little profit there thanks 🙂 |
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15:00 |
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15:12 |
Sold UCO filled at 45.55 with WTI at around 93.25. Another amazing call, thanks Rick! [{{ Way to interpolate! I appreciate the upbeat report, West. RA }}} ] |
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15:50 |
The 101.30 target in SPCX served us well, catching the last 25 points of decline that very few predicted or expected. Today’s low at 110.85 got us pretty close, but I don’t fancy being fooled if it turns out to have been an important low. To that end, I will use a 121.06 Hidden Pivot resistance as my target for this bounce, since anything above it would provide a hair-trigger signal of a possible bullish reversal. |