GCQ26 – August Gold (Last:4023.00)

The simmering geopolitical crisis has been insufficient to prop up gold against relentless selling ever since prices hit a record 5700 last February. Now the February contract lies within an inch of a ‘secondary’ Hidden Pivot support that has resisted the downtrend for several weeks. The mildly encouraging news is that a 3822.70 target $200 below could provide support. It comes from a pattern much too obvious to work precisely, but it will work nonetheless, possibly repelling bears with enough vigor to jump-start the bull market. However, there is a more compelling target beneath it at 3630.70 that you should fix in your minds. It is more closely congruent with the 82.46 target we’ve been using in GDXJ (see below). So as not to leave things too glum, my best-case alternative would be a rally surpassing June 21’s 4238.10 ‘external’ peak. That would probably end the bear market, but I don’t consider it likely.