ESZ26 – December E-MIni S&P (Last:7779.00)

I hesitate to say the 7986.25 target shown is a done deal, since I cherish the crazy notion that stocks are in a bear market. But, yes, the target will probably be reached, and there’s not much I can do about it. The chart itself offers a good illustration of why buy-and-hold bulls must throw risk/reward calculations overboard in order to succeed. Notice how the incremental gains from one peak to the next are minuscule compared to the drawdowns experienced at each intervening trough. That is how all bull markets behave, and if you ever hear of some cowboy who made $100 million riding a bull market in bellies or beans, you can assume that he weathered many adverse swings in the process that could have put him out of business. Scalp-trading the smaller swings is very different, however, and that is where, in the chat room, I shall continue to dwell.