Thursday’s decisive breach of a midpoint support at 50.02 strongly implies that the rate on the Ten-Year Note will continue falling to at least 4.85%, the D’ target of the conventional pattern shown. Bond traders should act accordingly, but armed with the knowledge that a rally to the green line (x=5.07%) should be shorted, stop 5.15%. If you trade TLT, a rally target at 82.17 is roughly equivalent to the 4.85% rate projected above. _______ UPDATE (Nov 1): No change. Rates spiked to 5.05% midweek, narrowly missing the ‘solid impediment’ where I’d said they would be a good short sale.
TNX.X – Ten-Year Note Rate (Last:4.99%)