$TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:79.37)

Although last week’s low occurred almost precisely at a 79.11 Hidden Pivot support, it is a minor one and no better than an even bet to contain a so-far moderate sell-off in T-Bonds. To better judge whether any turn-up is likely to last, we’ll use a 77-cent trigger interval.  That means TLT must rally at least 77 cents to the green line (x=79.88) to trigger a theoretical buy signal. If it goes lower first, the 77-cent trigger will still apply, but it will be re-set to the new low. Once a signal is triggered, TLT must exceed the midpoint Hidden Pivot, 80.65 as of now, before we infer that a rally capable of reaching the d target at 82.19 is under way.