$TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:81.92)

I’ve returned TLT to the list in lieu of TNX.X, which tracks yields on the Ten Year Note. I made the switch because TLT offers a clearer bullish picture at the moment, implying higher bond prices and lower yields. Also, unlike TNX.X, TLT is tradeable. The weekly chart (thumbnail inset) shows how the long bond punched through midpoint resistance two weeks ago and appears bound for 85.32, about 4% above current levels. That would correspond to a fall in Ten-Year yields from a current 4.86% to 4.68%, or possibly even to 4.44%, my best-case scenario. That may not seem like much, but when applied to many hundreds of billions worth of borrowing, it is certain to have a beneficial impact on the U.S. economy.