December Silver triggered a buy signal on October 8 that is still valid. It allows us the presumption that the futures will reach a minimum 28.215, where the midpoint Hidden Pivot is located. Those of you who trade silver will have observed that having a precise target and high confidence that it eventually will be reached is not necessarily an easy ticket to profits. Even now, in the throes of a solid uptrend, being long would have required diligent attention to the intraday charts and to the low-risk rABC setups they allow. It will become easier if Silver blows past p=28.215, since that would turn the chart bullish to enough to put a 34.62 target in play. However, although uncertainties thereupon would melt away, competition from the many who will have become quite bullish would begin to alter Silver's behavior in diabolical ways. ______ UPDATE (Nov 9, 6:43 p.m. ET): The plunge was not as bad as gold's and did no damage to the bullish pattern noted above and its 28.215 target. In fact, the selloff may actually have killed off some of that bullish competition I'd mentioned.
Although we were eager to get short last week at a promising Hidden Pivot target at 285.75, DIA never quite got there. The actual top occurred at 284.96, and although that was close enough to allow one to fashion a low-risk 'rABC' trigger, there were no reports in the chat room from anyone having done so. We can still attempt it if the futures make another run at the target, however. Specifically, I'll recommend buying four Nov 20 270 put options if DIA gets within 0.03 points of the target. They should be trading for around 1.20, but this is just a ballpark estimate that should be disregarded if it seems awry. In any event, I will provide more-timely guidance in real time, since I do not want anyone to pay up for these options. Our odds will never be great betting on direction with naked puts or calls, and every extra penny paid for an option will further reduce our chance of making money. _______ UPDATE (Nov 9, 8:25 a.m. ET): Following last night's record-breaking rally in index futures, the new target lies at 304.07. The red line indicates the hypothetical top of the overnight move, as registered by the futures. _______ UPDATE (Nov 10, 7:30 p.m.): Surprisingly, DIA has rebounded without testing Monday's cavernous gap. There is just too much bravado in this behavior for me to warrant it as bullish. Crazy is probably more accurate, and so we should not expect the show of strength to last. _______ UPDATE (Nov 12, 9:15 p.m.): Moderate weakness has brought DIA down into the gap. Its magnetic pull is strong, and there is no sign of ample buying interest to power DIA out of the hole. Look for more slippage, presumably to p2=282.74. That would trigger a weak 'mechanical' buy,
The chart contains a hint of Philadelphia, where a corrupt Democratic machine stepped in late at night to pull out the election for Biden. In this case, the carny men who feed off a stock market they've cleverly rigged, pulled AAPL out of a tailspin that almost stopped out the bullish pattern shown. This has drawn our focus to the 127.52 midpoint resistance, albeit not yet to the secondary pivot at 139.72 that sits above it. The lower number became our minimum upside objective last week and remains so, although not with the high confidence we've had in the past in AAPL's gaffed momentum. Even so, our short-term bias for trading purposes should be bullish, predicated on a probably balky move to the target. The old 'D' target at 151.93 that we used to profitably butterfly the stock at one point is still valid but feels a little too ambitious at the moment. _______ UPDATE (Nov 12, 8:48 p.m.): The red line at 127.52 looks like a promising place to get short, but the trade is unlikely to pan out until next week if it happens at all.
The 172.17 rally target we've been using to stay on the right side of the trend now has a companion target, a 'D' Hidden Pivot at 166.98. Together they should exert short-able stopping power, so we'll be looking to lay 'em out when IWM reaches the lower end of their approximately 5-point range. We still hold some Nov 6 130 puts that are no longer even a distant longshot to pay off. However, observing an inviolate rule of the Hidden Pivot Method, we cashed out of half of them when their price doubled, allowing us to hold onto the remainder of the position with zero risk. Some subscribers were able to do even better, since the puts quadrupled in price before IWM took off. This happened when the portfolio chimps began to hype a quite bullish small-cap story, presumably after they'd front-run it to the extent possible. _______ UPDATE (Nov 9, 8:35 a.m. ET): The overnight high in the E-Mini futures equates to 175.81. The futures exceeded their target at 1741.90, putting an 1813.30 target in play that is all but certain to be reached. This is equivalent to 181.33 in IWM. _______ UPDATE (Nov 9, 6:54 p.m.): I've redrawn the pattern to show a 184.73 target that is somewhat more ambitious than the one proffered this morning. I regard it as likely to be reached, but the huge price reversal will have sapped bulls of confidence that will take at least a week or two to return. Look for the gap between 165 and 169 to be filled. If the pullback touches the red line (163.44), it would trigger an enticing 'mechanical' buy. _______ UPDATE (Nov 10, 7:38 p.m.): I'll be interested myself to see who wins this one. On the one hand, Wall Street has been huckstering small-caps
It looks as though the Democrats will get nearly everything they've wanted -- except for control of the U.S. Senate. This means that turning the Supreme Court into a rubber stamp for new laws that would radically transform America will likely remain out of their reach for at least the next four years. That's the good news, but not just for the nearly 70 million voters who supported Trump. Biden's backers should be relieved as well, since this will spare them the historical notoriety of having trashed the separation of powers merely because they could. The bad news is that, as Obama demonstrated time and again, a president doesn't need Congress to enact a heavy-handed political agenda. Unfortunately, few expect Biden to be calling the shots for long. His mental acuity and physical stamina are all-too-obviously failing, and while it was possible for the news media to ignore his appalling lapses and gaffes during the campaign, putting him in charge of the most powerful nation on earth is not going to work. We can only pray that when Kamala Harris takes over, which she eventually will, she doesn't usher in a political Reign of Terror that comports with her take-no-prisoners brand of political extremism. An Unstable Economy The Democrats will soon own America's future, but they may come to regret it. The stock market is pumped so full of super-heated gas that it makes the Hindenburg look like a birthday balloon. Unprecedented levels of monetary stimulus have created a dangerously unstable economy dominated by a relative handful of giant, cloud-based companies that will have no jobs for displaced energy workers. There's also China, an implacable enemy that neither Biden nor his running mate has the guts or experience to confront. No less challenging will be protecting the promising but fragile
The map showed up in my email this afternoon, sent by a subscriber who, like me, simply cannot fathom polls that have Biden winning. This poll asked 373,000 people across America who they though their neighbors would vote for. Trump won in every state but Colorado, which has to mean something. If the many pollsters who have predicted Biden will romp turn out to have been wrong, I distrust the news media enough to assume that the encouraging numbers they provided to him were by design rather than error. Realize that if the major news outlets can fix things so that half of the nation has no clue what the Hunter Biden laptop scandal is all about, then they can easily fudge the results of a half-dozen surveys. I don't go quite so far, however, as to believe, as one friend does, that the CIA is capable of hacking computers used by Pennsylvania, Texas and a few other key states to tally votes uploaded from the precincts. I wouldn't deny that this is theoretically possible, only that the agency has shown the aptitude for staging such a coup without leaving elephant tracks. So what if Biden actually wins? At least half of us are praying it doesn't come to that. I've predicted Trump will bury Biden, but I must concede that this is just a gut feeling. I don't know anything more than you do, and even the news anchors don't know enough to make a better guess than you or I. But if Biden/Harris is our next president, I fear they will wreck much of what has made America great, starting with the Supreme Court. The founders set the third branch of government above politics, but it could not be more clear that the Democrats, vengeful over Amy Coney
A 100-point drop into the void would present an interesting 'rABC' opportunity to bottom-fish, but I'll wait for it to happen before I try to offer timely guidance in the chat room. In the meantime, we can divide our attention with the pattern shown, a 'reverse ABC' that can be traded just like its conventional cousin. I've sketched in a hypothetical 'mechanical' entry if the week should get off to a strong start. Ordinarily I'd say investors are too jittery to pull it off, but on Friday they tripped two theoretical buy signals with successive rallies to the green line, implying bulls were feisty enough to at least fake themselves out. ______ UDPATE (Nov 2,8:54 p.m. ET): The opening hour generated a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart but no easy opportunities. I take the upbeat finishing stroke a day ahead of the election as a vote for Trump. _______ UPDATE (Nov 4, 9:47 p.m. ET): The 3435.50 target provided in the chart served well as a place to get short, as some subscribers evidently did. The 119-point plunge from within three points of the pivot could have been worth as much as more than $5900 per contract to night owls paying close attention. The subsequent rally was even more dramatic, pointing toward a move now to at least 3500.13. That's the midpoint resistance of a pattern on the daily chart that began with A= 2972.00 on 6/29. If the futures get by it, a push in to 'no man's land' around 3560 would be a good place to look for a short. Set it up with a 'reverse ABC' pattern on a chart of 15-minute degree or less. _____ UPDATE (Nov 15, 8:48 pm.): Today's powerful thrust slightly exceeded the 3500.13 target given above before pulling back just an
The 'mechanical' trade that triggered last week at the green line remains in play, as does the 12,804 rally target. I have not continued to track the trade because as far as I could tell, no subscribers took a position over the weekend. The stop-loss is at 10,655, just beneath the pattern's point 'C' low, and the minimum profit target is p=11,730. Price action was pretty wild on Thursday and Friday, suggesting investors are stressed to the limit about the outcome of Tuesday's vote. Although they can't take the day off, we can. Stocks could gyrate even more violently than they did last week -- or vibrate nervously like an electrical arc. Either way, I'd suggesting spectating from the sidelines. _______ UPDATE (Nov 4, 10:06 p.m. ET): The futures were on track for a follow-up thrust to the 12,136 target shown in this chart, but I wouldn't suggest trying to get short there unless you've made a few bucks on the way up. An rABC ticket is the suggested tactic. _______ UPDATE (Nov 5, 8:53 p.m.): A two-day melt-up to 12,119 came within a tenth of a percentage point of the 12,136 target given above. That could be it for a while, but we'll let price action speak for itself. A close on Friday above 12,136 would look bullish enough to warrant taking home a small short position. It's been so long since bears enjoyed a Sunday night massacre that maybe it's time.
The week ended with modest rally that created a bullish impulse on the hourly chart (see inset). Despite this, I expect the futures to continue on their way down to the 1822.80 target, which is somewhat higher than the one given previously. In fact, if buyers drive this vehicle to the green line at 1910.20, that would trip a mechanical short, stop 1939.40. The short-term picture would brighten, however, if a rally takes out an external peak at 1917.30 recorded last week on the way down by Wednesday. That would shorten the odds of a breakout above the 1939.40 high that defines the bearish pattern. _______ UPDATE (Nov 4, 10:15 p.m. ET): The pop very slightly above the 1917.30 peak turned the short-term picture bullish, tied to a target at 1926.40. Here's the pattern, which has already produced a near-perfect mechanical entry at x=1893.00 and could work again. ______ UPDATE (Nov 5, 9:06 p.m.): After nearly three months of range-bound slogging, December Gold has finally rallied to a tripwire that portends more upside to as high as 2250. I'll have more to say about this in an update that will be out Sunday night, but for now we can ratchet up our bullish trading bias a skoch, using p=1950.80 as a minimum upside objective for the near term.
The short-squeeze from Friday's intraday low missed triggering a 'counterintuitive' buy signal at 265.41 by a hair, but there would have been no compelling reason for us to take the signal ahead of a weekend so fraught with anxiety. If the green line is hit at the start of the week, it would trip a valid signal, nonetheless -- one indicating minimum upside to p=269.42, or even to as high as D=277.42. We can use the pattern to take the stock market's measure ahead of the election, but any trading opportunities that it might afford us will need to be considered intraday. _______ UPDATE (Nov 2, 9:03 p.m.): One Hidden Pivot target down, one to go: 277.42. Used it as a minimum upside objective if the rally continues. _______ UPDATE (Nov 4, 10:35 p.m.): A gap-up opening impaled the 277.42 target given earlier in the week, clearing a path to the 285.75 target shown here. It can be used not only as a minimum upside projection for the near-term, but also as a place to try shorting with a tight stop-loss or an rABC.
