Rick Ackerman

So now the rumored deal on the debt ceiling supposedly is in jeopardy. What will the criminal lunatics who short-squeezed the Dow for 323 undeserved points yesterday do next? The night shift has seen this vehicle down 11 points so far, but DaBoyz have since been able to engineer a 7-point pump-and-dump rally. Absent a deal on Capitol Hill Thursday night, there could be an avalanche of remorse at the opening bell. My hunch, however,  is that things will be more subdued, and that traders will be gambling that the weekend will produce 'progress' in Washington.  Under the circumstances, the futures are a scalp-trade right now at best, and you should therefore do your hunting on charts of 15-minute degree or less.  This yields a bearish picture at the moment (i.e., 6:59 p.m. EDT), but I'd be looking to get long nevertheless near the 1675.25 p midpoint pivot shown.  If it gives way easily, however, take it as a warning that the avalanche of remorse could indeed be on its way.

Rumors of progress between Obama and the Republicans is probably overblown, but even half-baked rumors should be sufficient to goose stocks that DaSleazeballs have shaken down so diligently in the past week.  If an actual settlement emerges, however, bears had better dive for cover.

Someone asked me in the chat room to take a look at this stock, and so I have. The best buying opportunity we've seen in a while occurred on the opening bar yesterday, which exceeded by 29 cents a Hidden Pivot target at 21.68 that had been six weeks in coming. Considering how long it took SLW to get there, the current bounce should run for at least 3-5 days even if the stock is destined for new lows.  Camouflageurs should approach any trade with a bullish bias, but I should note that even on the 3-minute chart, using the subtlest opportunities I could discern, the stock has been one tricky little s.o.b., generating second or third point 'C' lows after nearly every valid signal. ______ UPDATE (October 14, 12:28 a.m.): Friday's low came even closer to the target, overshooting it by 7 cents. Although it's tempting to say the low is in, the bounce from it, feeble as it is has been, is as yet unconvincing. If SLW relapses on Monday, breaching the low, it will put into play a 20.47 'D' pivot (60-min, A=24.05 on 10/8) as a minimum downside objective. _______ UPDATE (October 17, 11:03 a.m. EDT): This morning's short-squeeze is bullishly impulsive on the hourly chart, but it has yet to put in a b-c correction that we could use to get aboard. If the rally extends without pause above the 24.05 'external' peak recorded on October 8, bulls would have something to celebrate. For now, though, bullishness of a more speculative sort would be appropriate. _______ UPDATE (October 22, 9:36 p.m. EDT): Let's see how buyers handle the 24.72 Hidden Pivot target shown.  An easy move through it would leave bears on the ropes, probably for the remainder of the week. ______ UPDATE (October 28,

A predicted rally to at least 22.765 has died in the stretch after having gotten no higher than 22.525.  Bulls nevertheless still hold a tenuous edge on the hourly chart, and that's where I'd suggest you look if you're keen on bottom-fishing.  A trade from the p midpoint will require camouflage because of its very close proximity to a prior low, but you may be able to get away with a stop-loss as tight as 3-4 ticks with a straight bid at D. _______ UPDATE (12:30 p.m. EDT):  The actual low occurred 2 cents beneath the 21.735 'p' support shown. Using the 1-minute chart, the first attractive 'camouflage' entry signal came at 21.790 (5:28 a.m.), and a second at 21.850 (5:58 a.m.) Both worked, although the second took its sweet old time getting airborne.  ______ UPDATE (October 11, 11:25 a.m. EDT):  With today's plunge, the immediate outlook has taken a serious turn for the worse.  My minimum downside target is now below $20 -- 19.710 to be precise. As you can see in the chart (a new one), the breach of the midpoint was brutal and decisive, shortening the odds that the 19.710 'D' target with which it is associated will indeed be achieved. ________ UPDATE (October 17, 11:11 a.m. EDT): Not to be a party pooper, but what I'm noticing about this morning's short squeeze rally is that it didn't have the guts to take on the 22.250 'external' peak recorded on the hourly chart October 10 on the way down. Anyway, if you're looking to board this train via camouflage, you should use that peak as a 'hook', since any b-c pullback from a few pennies above it would be easily tradable. ________ UPDATE (October 20, 8:40 p.m.): Buyers hung tough on Friday, allowing only a shallow correction

Putting aside the possibility mentioned here yesterday that Yahoo has made its bull-market top, we'll focus solely and mechanically on technical signs to determine how to trade the stock.  They are bullish at the moment, following yesterday's nasty short-squeeze from a deftly engineered low in the opening hour. Specifically, I'll recommend buying 400 shares if the tentative pattern shown develops into a tradable a-b-c.  This should be done camo-style, using a chart of perhaps 5-minute degree, with a goal of limiting theoretical entry risk to no more than 7-9 cents per share.  Partial profits should be taken on 3/4 of the initial position by the time the 'D' target of the small pattern is reached. ______ UPDATE (October 11, 11:00 a.m. EDT): The rally pattern played out precisely as drawn, with a gap-up finishing stroke this morning to 34.37, a nickel from the 34.42 target. As a practical matter, longs could not have been initiated at the 33.27 entry-trigger, since it was bypassed by Thursday's gap-up opening. The next chance would have been via camouflage, after the stock speared the 33.65 midpoint pivot. But even then, there were no 'easy' entry points.  _______ UPDATE (October 14, 10:21 p.m. EDT): YHOO has labored for four days without generating a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart, so caution is warranted even if the stock does not yet beg to be shorted. _______ UPDATE (October 17, 9:17 a.m. EDT): YHOO's gap this morning beneath the midpoint support shown implies it will continue lower, to at least 31.66. That Hidden Pivot can and should be bottom-fished, but until then the stock is a short. ______ UPDATE (October 21): Yahoo's intraday charts have turned bullish, but only after a stretch of tedium that has sapped my interest in the stock.  I still think that

Well, Gold finally generated that bullish impulse leg we've waited for so patiently. Unfortunately, and suspiciously, it took a nearly $30 shakedown first (see inset) to sufficiently deplete sellers so that the impulsive rally could be 'arranged'. Under the circumstances, I'll stick with our longstanding target at 1250.50 for now, although I'd become a Raging Bull, at least for the short term, if the December contract were to thrust above 1337.90.  _______ UPDATE (Sunday afternoon):  Just one change: Lower the threshold at which we could infer a bullish resurgence is 1298.40, which corresponds to a minor 'external' peak from 10/10 visible on the 15-minute chart.  _______ UPDATE (October 15, 10:06 a.m. EDT):  Gold has trampolined $27 this morning (see inset) from 50 cents above the $1250.50 Hidden Pivot we'd been using as a minimum downside target for weeks.  Since I had suggested buying aggressively down there, please let me know in the chat room of any orders filled so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance.

I've provided some bearish Hidden Pivot targets for the E-Mini S&Ps, but they are suitable mainly for nimble traders and 'camouflageurs', since the futures are likely to find more durable support near some 'magnetic' structural lows recorded in late August and early September.  Barring an unexpected accord on Capitol Hill, the broad averages seem very likely to continue lower for the foreseeable future.

So fixated was I on the goal of shorting a potentially major top at 36.51, a Hidden Pivot resistance, that the nasty slide from the recent high at 35.51 caught me unawares. For anyone paying closer attention, however, the first juicy 'camouflage' signal to get short came at 34.53 on Monday (see inset). I was traveling in New Jersey at the time, but one would need to have been focused on the 5-minute chart intraday to nail the trade. My hunch is that Yahoo has made its bull-market top and that the stock will increasingly come to reflect disappointment in the stewardship of Marisa Mayer.  As we know, there are precious few second acts in the high-tech business. Moreover, regardless of the qualities that made Mayer a hotshot at Google, it would have taken real genius -- think Steve Jobs -- to turn Yahoo around. We'll look for another fat opportunity to get short, so stay tuned.

December Gold's failure to generate a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart is now at five days and counting -- not very impressive, to put it mildly.  Under the circumstances, I still expect a relapse down to the 1250.50 target shown, although bulls could earn a respite with a pop exceeding the 1337.80 'external' peak shown. Bears show no real conviction either, so we should look for some news tidbit with the vaguest possible tie to the inflation/deflation theme to end the stalemate.