A predicted rally to at least 22.765 has died in the stretch after having gotten no higher than 22.525. Bulls nevertheless still hold a tenuous edge on the hourly chart, and that’s where I’d suggest you look if you’re keen on bottom-fishing. A trade from the p midpoint will require camouflage because of its very close proximity to a prior low, but you may be able to get away with a stop-loss as tight as 3-4 ticks with a straight bid at D. _______ UPDATE (12:30 p.m. EDT): The actual low occurred 2 cents beneath the 21.735 ‘p’ support shown. Using the 1-minute chart, the first attractive ‘camouflage’ entry signal came at 21.790 (5:28 a.m.), and a second at 21.850 (5:58 a.m.) Both worked, although the second took its sweet old time getting airborne. ______ UPDATE (October 11, 11:25 a.m. EDT): With today’s plunge, the immediate outlook has taken a serious turn for the worse. My minimum downside target is now below $20 — 19.710 to be precise. As you can see in the chart (a new one), the breach of the midpoint was brutal and decisive, shortening the odds that the 19.710 ‘D’ target with which it is associated will indeed be achieved. ________ UPDATE (October 17, 11:11 a.m. EDT): Not to be a party pooper, but what I’m noticing about this morning’s short squeeze rally is that it didn’t have the guts to take on the 22.250 ‘external’ peak recorded on the hourly chart October 10 on the way down. Anyway, if you’re looking to board this train via camouflage, you should use that peak as a ‘hook’, since any b-c pullback from a few pennies above it would be easily tradable. ________ UPDATE (October 20, 8:40 p.m.): Buyers hung tough on Friday, allowing only a shallow correction that has kept the bad guys pinned on the ropes. Under the circumstances, we should infer that the futures are on their way to at least 22.765 if and when the midpoint resistance at 22.225 is decisively exceeded.
