Rick Ackerman

For the time being I've replaced QQQ with this vehicle, an ETF for playing the Russell 2000, because it seems to have a stronger following in the chat room. I also like the way the bullish pattern has played out, especially when it triggered what turned out to be a perfectly timed 'mechanical' buy three weeks ago at the green line. It would do this yet again on a pullback to the red line, although the opportunity looks like a longshot bet to materialize at this point. More interesting is the 169.43 'D' target, which not only appears likely to be reached, but to generate a tradeable top that we can short with out-of-the-money put options.  Stay tuned, and don't hesitate to flag opportunities to get long in the Trading Room, since they can be vetted by our own experts. ______ UPDATE (Oct 20, 5:07 p.m.): IWM looks like it's about to do a Lomcevak, but bears shouldn't get their hopes too high. It's natural for this Russell 2000 vehicle to look winded as it hovers just shy of the record peaks recorded earlier this year. You can see buyers' fatigue in this chart.  But it looks too obvious to produce a windfall for those betting on a steep downdraft. More likely is a modest swing trade, so stay tuned to the chat room if you're interested.

The usual geniuses have attributed last week's stock-market stall to growing fears that the Democrats could sweep in November.  Any sentient adult watching the news, however, or video footage of Biden's dismal public appearances, understands why these fears are unfounded. Even so, they held sway over traders for most of the week, preventing the E-Mini S&Ps from reaching a 3571.50 target that should have been a lay-up. Bears could claim no great success either, however, and that's why we should stick with the target as the new week begins. Moreover, you can buy a pullback to p=3384.75 'mechanically', using a stop-loss at 3322.50. An rABC or 'camouflage' set-up should be used to pare the entry risk down to perhaps a tenth of that. ______ UPDATE (Oct 20, 5:20 p.m.): We'll back away for now, since the shallow stall just shy of early September's record-high is just courting anxiety.

The 12,808 rally target that we used last week is still in play even though bulls couldn't push this hoax to the secondary pivot at 12,271. The futures got  close enough, however, to warrant a 'mechanical' bid at 11,734. A low on Thursday at 11,736 could have been used for this purpose, and a trade initiated there went on to produce a hypothetical gain of about $1200 per contract. We'd be getting sloppy seconds if the December contract revisits the red line, but my gut feeling is that any overshoot would not reach the stop-loss at 11,376. Even so, I'll suggest using an rABC set-up on the five-minute chart or less to trigger the trade. The 'A-B' segment should be between 200-250 points. _______ UPDATE (Oct 19, 1:05 p.m. ET): The downtrend is closing on p=11,734, where it would trigger a 'mechanical' buy. Here's the rABC I'd suggest using to initiate the trade once p has been touched. Attempt this trade only if you understand why the initial theoretical risk per contract would be around $628; and at what level you would take a partial profit. ______ UPDATE (Oct 19, 8:45 p.m.): The trade detailed in the update above included a graph with the precise rABC set-up to use, and it could not have worked out more perfectly. This gambit produced a gain of $780 per contract in less than 30 minutes for anyone who followed my simple advice. That is the profit on just one contract acquired at the green line and exited at the red. If you'd held four contracts as we often do, and exited at the pattern's D target (where the move topped precisely), your profit on the position would have been $9440.  Since no one mentioned this trade in the chat room, I assume that

Continue to bid for Nov 20 140/150/160 call butterfly spreads, since the ambitious rally target at 151.94 remains valid despite last week's punk performance. (Officially, we hold the spread eight times, effectively for free.) Although the target may seem remote at the moment, bulls could cover half of the white space on the chart in mere days if Trump wins, as I have given you to expect. The spread traded down to 0.32 on Friday, four cents above our niggardly bid, but you can lower it to 0.24 on Monday, subject to possible adjustment intraday. Be sure to tune to the chat room and keep "Notifications" switched on in your account page, since it may be possible to leg into the spread for free. That would entail buying Nov 20 140 calls when the stock is at a downside target, presumably bottoming; and then shorting two 150 calls on any subsequent rally while buying a 160 call.  Please note that the one-hour lesson on butterfly spreading that I recorded a short while ago can be found linked on your account page. You should review it before participating in this trade. _______ UPDATE (Oct 19, 2:13 p.m. ET): Cancel the bid for the butterfly. It has traded down to 0.26 today, but we may be able to do much better by legging it on in the way described above. _______ UPDATE (Oct 20, 6:04 p.m.): For detailed tips on how to leg into the spread, check out the recording of today's online 'requests' session. It should be posted to your account page by mid-day Wednesday if not sooner. _______ UPDATE (Oct 21, 11:20 p.m.): Few investors share my confidence that Trump will be re-elected, and that will seriously impair the ability of AAPL to rise by the usual leaps and bounds

After triggering a 'mechanical' buy last week on a pullback to the red line (see inset), DIA turned the trade into an instant winner by surging straightaway to the next level, p2=289.41. It didn't quite get there, but unless news over the weekend is exceedingly grim, short-covering will complete the job. In the meantime, the 297.45 'D' rally target that's been in play for more than two weeks can be used as a minimum upside objective for the week ahead. If and when DIA gets there, you can get short using out-of-the-money put options with a tight stop-loss. Stay tuned to the chat room at the appropriate time for more-specific guidance. _______ UPDATE (Oct 19, 9:08 p.m.): It appears some subscribers may have used p=281.36 to get long on DIA's second dip to it. Since this Hidden Pivot caught the intraday low almost exactly, and because the subsequent bounce hit 282.51, you should have taken at least a partial profit. In any event, you're on your own if you still hold a position. ______ UPDATE (Oct 20, 6:07 p.m.): A couple of subscribers reported nailing down profits as DIA rallied a further 3.53 points before pulling back into the close. This seems wise at the moment. ______ UPDATE (Oct 21, 11:45 p.m.): You can use this pattern, which projects minimum downside to 279.88, as a road map for Thursday. For the nimble shooter, bottom-fishing is recommended there via cheap (i.e., under 0.60) soon-to-expire calls, tightly stopped. This is a scalp-trade, so don't be shooting for the moon if it goes your way. ______ UPDATE (Oct 22, 4:41 p.m.): The Dow dove early in the session, but the 280.30 low missed hitting our bid by a significant 0.42 points. I see no comparable opportunities for Friday, but you should stay tuned

Gold traders have been beating themselves bloody for nearly a month, creating innumerable price reversals slightly above or below prior highs and lows. This kind of price action reveals that the algos, whom I sometimes refer to as droolers, are so hooked on what we call 'impulse legs' that their supercomputers will often be a step behind traders who think like traders and can second-guess dumb machines. The chart reveals a particular telling instance of trend failure -- one implying that we should favor the bears at the moment even if their edge is slight.  The bearish pattern shown has a midpoint pivot at 1880.80 that can serve as a minimum downside target for now; and a D target at 1822.20. (p2=1851.50). _______ UPDATE (Oct 21, 11:53 p.m.): Price action has become extremely tiresome. Here's a bullish alternative to what I've written above, but I offer it without enthusiasm or encouragement; it is strictly informational.

The December contract is trading exactly where it was a month ago, a situation hardly conducive to interesting or profitable forecasts, let alone dramatic ones.  We ended last week with a cautiously bullish target at 25.02, but because gold futures looks slightly bearish at the moment, I'll sync up my Silver forecast with a 22.82 target that is cautiously bearish. That's the midpoint Hidden Pivot support of a pattern begun in mid-September that projects to as low as 19.94.   Alternatively, a pop exceeding the 24.73 'external' peak recorded on the way down last Wednesday would shift the outlook to short-term bullish, and a print at 25.23, especially early in the week, would put 26.40 in play for a finishing stroke. ______ UPDATE (Oct 19, 9:14 p.m. ET): I've had enough gratuitous nuttiness for the time being. I'm going to sit back and watch for a few days. _______ UPDATE (Oct 21, 11:59 p.m.): Like the updated chart in gold, I offer this one without much enthusiasm, although it looks a little better than gold's. A pullback to the green line (24.33) would trip a 'mechanical' buy, stop 23.64, but I'd suggest an alternative entry set-up, since the initial risk would be nearly $3500 per contract.

Two strong rally legs last week failed to push the Dollar Index to p=94.01 . The upthrusts also choked on a fine opportunity to surpass some challenging external peaks, the first of which lay just a tick above Thursday's high. This is unencouraging, but because DXY is on a theoretical  'buy' signal tripped last Tuesday at the green line, we'll give bulls the mild benefit of  the doubt for now. It would take a two-day close above 94.01, however, to put D=95.00 in play. However things play out, you can count on gold and silver quotes to remain exquisitely and inversely sensitive to every uptick/downtick in this vehicle. _______ UPDATE (Oct 20, 6:11 p.m.): Yet another day of weakness wrecked the short-term-bullish pattern when DXY took out its point 'C' low. There has been hardly a bounce, so we should prepare for even lower prices in the days ahead. ______ UPDATE (Oct 22, 12:05 a.m.): The dollar looks so atrocious that just a couple more bad days will wipe out a rally begun from 91.80 on 9/1 that looked like a plausible beginning for a new bull market. Here's the chart.

GDX has been regularly disappointing us for more than two months and is close to doing it again. Although the stock tripped a 'textbook' mechanical buy on Thursday when it pulled back to the green line, it pulled back even more on Friday and ended the week just inches from breaching the point 'C' low of the bullish pattern. I hadn't recommended the trade to begin with because my recent updates placed the burden of proof on bulls. And so it shall remain until such time as buyers can push this cinder block above the 42.54 'external peak recorded September 18 on the way down. I long ago crowdsourced the trading of this vehicle to subscribers because it became an annoyance and a burden to track it. Even so, I will respond to any posts in the chat room seeking guidance for a potential trading opportunity based on the Hidden Pivot Method. _______ UPDATE (Oct 22, 4:47 p.m. ET): Sellers not only destroyed the bullish pattern, they've turned its point 'C' low into a resistance. In any case, I'm relieved to have crowdsourced this cinder block months ago. Lest I tempt you toward despair, however, I should mention that the big picture is still bullish and capable of generating a rally to as high as 51.54. Here's a chart that shows how. _______ UPDATE (Oct 29, 10:47 p.m.): Please give me a nudge in the chat room when it's safe to go back in the water. What a disaster! _______ UPDATE (Nov 5, 9:42 p.m.): With today's strong leap, GDX became an odds-on bet to reach the 43.24 midpoint Hidden Pivot  of this pattern. We'll be able to tell better when it gets there whether buyers have bigger plans, implying a further push to as high as 50.47. _______ UPDATE (Nov