Ricks Picks header image

Dog-Whistling at Marxists Is Not a Winning Strategy

7 comments

Bulls are straining to hold shares aloft, but we haven’t seen sufficient weakness to infer that the stock market smells a Biden victory. That would be a catastrophe for Wall Street, even if some pundits insist investors might actually prefer him. We now have fake opinions, it would seem, to supplement fake news intended to support Biden. Investors needn’t worry in any event, since there is no credible logic to support polls that show Biden leading comfortably.  It evaporates when you factor in millions of Trump supporters who’d rather not talk about it with Gallup, Quinnipiac et al. Why risk having a fiery jack-o-lantern heaved through your living room window, or getting ‘keyed’ by some Biden partisan who doesn’t agree with your MAGA bumper sticker? The so-called low-propensity voters may not be very visible, but there are assuredly plenty of them out there. They will put Trump comfortably enough over the top to moot the inevitable post-election recounts.

Reasons for a Trump Landslide

In the meantime, the supposed experts have been combing through election data precinct-by-precinct in a half-dozen populous states, trying to discern a predictive pattern.  Most of these guys couldn’t find a pattern in an Amish quilt. It’s not that hard, guys. Really. Just a few simple assumptions support not merely the prospect of a Trump win, but a Trump landslide. To wit: 1) virtually everyone who voted for Trump in 2016 is going to vote for him again; 2) many millions who didn’t will this time because Trump’s accomplishments have benefited them materially. Most are better off financially than they were under Obama, even with Covid depressing the economy. Aren’t you? 3)  Joe is much more congenial than Hillary, and this will count for something at the ballot box; but 4) it will be more than offset by mounting evidence that he is a crooked politician, that his brain has holes in it, and that he is absolutely bereft of ideas that might improve America. His running mate, Kamala Harris, surely does not lack for ideas. Unfortunately for the Democrats, however, it is Marxists who hear her dog whistle most clearly. Bottom line: It’s still Trump by a landslide. _______ UPDATE (Oct 22, 4:57 p.m. ET): Few expect the debate to move the stock market on Friday, but it can’t hurt to speculate on a possible surprise — especially when the odds are right. We’ve got a bet down with some put options on IWM, a proxy for the Russell 2000.

Please do not ask trading questions!

  • Deadhead October 22, 2020, 1:31 pm

    I don’t agree with Ackerman at all.

    If only half of Biden’s energy policies come true, we’ll see economic expansion that’ll make the Internet era seem puny. I know, I was there.

    He claims “we’re all better off”. Bunk. If we lose our insurance that covers pre-existing conditions, we’re scrambling. So are millions of others.

    He opines, “Joe is crooked, so don’t vote for him”. Compared to what? Trump? My god. Read some books.

    Trump has done nothing for the crowd that’s always the foundation for economic growth. Biden and those around him believe in tech. Trump’s big idea for the economy is more drilling. He might as be recommending we go back to using typewriters.

    BTW. The tech era was ushered in by 2 liberal Democrats – Judge Harold Greene and President Jimmy Carter. Because it was Carter, who appointed Judge Greene to preside over Divestiture, the break up of AT&T. Greene was thought to be the only judge who could understand such a complex issue. Divestiture unlocked Unix, which is C code. Unix was owned by AT&T and its subsidiary Bell Labs. Every piece of tech today, goes back to Unix. It led to high speed data lines (DS1’s) being available to anyone. Read about Divestiture. Reagan signed the decree his first week in office. He got the credit. But it was Carter and Greene who did all the work. Two liberals, who did all the work.

    And Trump is ruled by the far, religious right. Fracking? Of course. Blowjobs? Not so much.

    I get it. You guys all want lower taxes. So do I. But there’s absolutey no data that draws a line from economic prosperity to low taxes. None. Trickle down? It didn’t work for Reagan, Bush jr., it won’t work now. It’s never worked.

    I’ve been a tech entrepreneur since ’89. I’ve not once, thought about lower taxes as a make or break issue. Neither has anyone I know. What we worry about, all we worry about, is if or not there’s customers for what we’re making. Taxes? If we’re making money who cares? We don’t.

    If you had a son with a difference, were looking at their insurance being taken away, you’d feel our pain. Otherwise, if you haven’t been there you don’t know the pain.

    And they are going to take away our insurance. “Yah but they’ll replace it with something better”. Really? They’ve been saying that for what? 10 years now? We’re in CO. Here’s Corey Gardner’s big idea:
    https://www.9news.com/article/news/politics/truth-tests/colorado-senate-truth-test-claim-from-gardners-mom-about-pre-existing-conditions-leaves-out-one-detail/73-83b46341-4202-44be-8f15-3773f453dd1a

    https://www.denverpost.com/2020/08/20/cory-gardner-pre-existing-conditions-bill-election-fodder/

    And if you don’t have a sugartooth, you don’t know what it’s like.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EyJ-EvrX48k

    It’s really hard not to hate you people. But I won’t go there. No matter what.

    &&&&&&

    I always appreciate it when someone comes in here with another point of view, Deadhead, and so it’s good to welcome you. That said, there is not a single point you’ve made that I agree with. I don’t have the time or energy to rebut you point-by-point, but to take just one of them, the endlessly repeated trope that Trump is going to eliminate coverage for pre-existing conditions is nonsense. It is the one provision of Obamacare that NO ONE wants to see scrapped. Politicians not only know this, they and their families depend on it for their own medical care. It is here to stay. RA

    • Ben October 23, 2020, 8:41 am

      Nothing like a miasma of smarmy arrogance — Sorry, I mean “tech entrepreneur since ’89” — to snap a drunk and indignant Superman back to his senses. I take back everything bad I’ve ever said about Trump and the GOP. Not the true things. Only the unwarranted and unfair things. I’ll be good, I promise. Just PLEASE don’t let me turn into a Deadhead!

      By the way, DH, no one has ever gone to jail for refusing any and/or all deductions, nor for just outright giving the IRS more than it demands. Of course, the difference between charity and taxation means forgoing whatever it is you wanted for your extra contribution.

      I don’t know what that is, in your case — Well, a blowjob, obviously. That much you let us know! — but I do know an awful lot about human nature, throughout history, as well as the present day.

      “A government big enough to give you everything you want is a government big enough to take from you everything you have.”

      Gee, I wonder if this would be an example of what Gerald Ford was referring to:

      Earlier this year, some lefty UK politician or other said, outright, that “right-wing Nazis” — whom only people like him could distinguish from everyone else, of course — should be denied healthcare.

      Or the CCP’s social cledit system, for that matter. So much power, so much control… few fools to oppose it. Wet dream of wet dreams!

      See, you lefties screwed up by unleashing your bratshirts too earlier. So there’s never going to be any going back to the old, tired, and very fake, “I just wanna help people, man!” and “The person I won’t vote for is a MEANIE!”. If you did just want to help people, you would be giving money away. But you obviously want something for that “selfless sacrifice”. As for the big meanie part, well, Rick got that one already.

  • Ben October 22, 2020, 7:18 am

    “Most are better off financially than they were under Obama, even with Covid depressing the economy. Aren’t you?”

    I’m no better or worse. However, the average, pre-pandemic American was 3% less unemployed/under-employed. Which sounds like a lot, until we consider that we’re talking a range of ~21%-24%…

    http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

    Now let’s talk about that pandemic unemployment number. I’m no Ag industry expert, but I suspect unemployment would be about where it was — maybe even a bit lower — IF Trump hadn’t passed on a golden opportunity…

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/14/costco-meatpacking-virus-migrant-labor/

    Instead of issuing an EO for the food production sector to tech up, clean up, and hire citizens, Trump only issued a simple stay-open order. Keep the aliens. Keep the supply chain of illegals from the sanctuaries. Keep more Americans in the BICR sector of the “economy” — Borrow Import Consume Repeat — and pay them to do nothing for a few weeks (it is, after all, an election year).

    That’s the real Trump, as well as every indication where his second term is going to go. Little wonder Wall Street has a big boner of a grin for the snake oil salesman… BICR foreva!

    And that’s just ONE tip-of-the-iceberg reason that I’ve turned into this… this… filthy cape and boot Superman, who no longer shaves or uses Just For Men, and spends all day drinking and flicking peanuts at the mirror!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dboFAS6hp8s&t=1s

  • toysrbill October 21, 2020, 11:02 pm

    Hope you’re right or we are in big trouble.

  • harryhv October 21, 2020, 9:56 pm

    Not everyone who voted for Trump will do so again – those 270,000 extra dead people, over and above America’s normal annual death rate, they don’t get a vote but if they did I bet they wouldn’t vote the same way again.

    &&&&&&

    It is only in the most benighted precincts of ignorance and TDS that Trump’s performance vs. Covid could be judged a failure. Gov. Cuomo, who just wrote a book praising his own performance, was arguably the biggest single contributor to that 270,000 total.
    RA

    • Ben October 22, 2020, 2:05 pm

      Some (ahem) benighted and TDS points about Trump’s covid performance (it’s all poppycock, I swear!)…

      a) While it was obvious that the CCP and WHO were downplaying the severity of the outbreak in China, Trump chose not to rock the boat, and put off a travel ban until near the end of January. He could have and should have done it sooner.

      b) When it became apparent that there was something wrong with the initial testing kits, he was blowing things off and instead tweeting Space Ball memes at Michael Bloomberg (as if that peon mattered!).

      c) He was even slower with the European travel ban. Why ban Chinese travelers, but not travelers from countries that don’t also ban them? Made no sense!

      d) And when all those people came flooding back from Europe, Trump apparently hadn’t spent any time making an orderly plan, to minimize the spread. We all saw the over-crowded airport terminals and insanely long lines, all those people packing in close, without any masks, whatsoever. That wasn’t TDS. That was an entirely avoidable clusterf***k!

      e) For the first few months, the Surgeon General could not wage enough war on mask-wearing. The guy is nuts, and all he did was go berserk against the very idea… until someone finally pulled him aside and told him to stop it, and instead make a brief video on how to make them out of simple cloth (which are next to useless).

      f) “It’ll go away in the summer” — Even though the equatorial countries, like Singapore and Ecuador, were already proving that notion mere wishful thinking. This point shows that he was neither paying attention, nor thinking long term i.e. goldbricking.

      g) “I don’t need to wear a mask”. Sure you don’t, Trump!

      h) “A vaccine is coming” — Even as it has becomes more and more apparent that immunity is not permanent. This rushed vaccine will more than likely have to be like a seasonal flu shot. And since it will be rushed, no thank you!

      i) “We’re going to make China pay!” — For what?! Because we can’t our shit together? Please…

      j) “Learn to live with covid-19” — Oooh… what if Obama had said that? Can you imagine? Over 8 million cases and 220,000 dead… Cattle futures would be well into the negative, as conservatives would be giving birth to a record number of cows!

      That said — and it is a lot! — there’s more than enough blame to go around for the sad state of covid “containment” in the U.S. I’ve picked on Trump enough — and, therefore, Republicans — so here it is for the Dems…

      Plan A: Spend money on illegals instead of pandemic preparedness.
      Plan B: Blame Trump when you’re caught unprepared.
      Plan C: Defund the police.

      Lovely policies, dems! How did you ever come to such winning strategies?

  • mm18ra October 21, 2020, 8:58 pm

    Great sense of humor Rick! As always. No pan of the audience of President Obama’s pump tonight. It seems there will be a lot of disappointed voters. It’s really all a big complicated mess. Everything. Very Very sad. Nobody can turn this ship around and do something really positive and beneficial in all aspects.


Do you want up-to-the-minute technical analysis and forecasts for your favorite stocks, commodities, ETFs? Join our Take Request Session on December 15th!

No, I'm not Interested

Do you want up-to-the-minute technical analysis and forecasts for your favorite stocks, commodities, ETFs? Join our Take Request Session on December 1st!

No, I'm not Interested