Rick Ackerman

Apple could fall a further $107 before reaching the worst-case Hidden Pivot target at 295.85 shown in the chart.  Regardless, we'll want to try bottom-fishing at the 380.80 midpoint support, since it promises to launch a tradable bounce, however short-lived. The rally could be especially steep, since the low will have occurred following an ostensible breakdown beneath the 385.10 bottom recorded in mid-April. For now, though, use 380.80 as a minimum downside objective.  A two-day close beneath that number would of course shorten the odds of a continuation of the bear market to D=295.85. _______ UPDATE (July 1, 2:38 a.m.): An upturn has come from 388.87 -- well above my target support -- but we shouldn't get too excited because Friday's high failed to take out the previous day's peak at 401.39.  _______ UPDATE (July 8, 3:03 a.m. EDT): The last rally failed to refresh the bullish impulsiveness of the hourly chart, weakening the bullish case for the very near term. _______ UPDATE (July 10): After lagging the market for nearly a week, Apple lurched higher yesterday, aided by a bear-trap opening and the short-squeeze that ensued. The 437.94 rally target shown ( see inset, a fresh chart) should be kept in mind, along with a 424.16 midpoint resistance that can be leveraged by camouflageurs looking for a place to board. _______ UPDATE (July 22, 3:30 p.m. EDT): A $13 rally sputtered out at 434.87, more than $3 shy of the target. This is a warning to bulls that the selling would become stronger if the current correction exceeds its 420.12 target (see inset, a fresh chart). Regardless, the target and its 'p' sibling at 424.93 are logical spots to try bottom fishing via camouflage. _______ UPDATE (July 23, 5:30 p.m. EDT):  We'll back away for now, since lunatics, scoundrels

Detour Gold, a stock that hung tough while most other miners were dropping like stones, has finally succumbed. However,  it has been idling near the 8.4494 Hidden Pivot target shown for two months without having breached the support by much (see inset).  Under the circumstances, we might look to jump on the first 'camo' opportunity that occurs.  I'll suggest monitoring the 30-minute chart, where a potential entry set-up was developing thus:  A= 8.2130 on 6/21 at 1:00 p.m. EDT. _______ UPDATE (June 26, 3:50 a.m.): We'll back away for now, since yesterday's 30-cent plunge obliterated the HP support noted above.

A 1219.20 target has served us well, tempering any misguided enthusiasm we might have had to attempt bottom-fishing as the price of gold has fallen since early May.  The target, a Hidden Pivot, still looks like a logical place to bid aggressively, albeit with a tight stop-loss.  However, as you can see in the chart (inset), an additional target at 1241.90 derived from a somewhat lower point 'A' beckons as an additional spot to put a speculative bid.  Camouflage is the preferred tactic, but it may be possible to get away with a 1241.90 bid and a stop-loss as tight as 3-4 ticks. If you decide to do it that way, I'd suggest a single-contract trade. _______ UPDATE (June 26, 3:54 a.m. EDT):  Gold is getting slaughtered tonight as usual, with a so-far low at 1242.60 that fell just 0.70 shy of the target given above.  The subsequent $12 bounce was tradable, although only with more difficulty and stress than we should prefer. If you were able to get long near the low and exit on the bounce, then great.  Otherwise, a short to 1219.20 is the play from here.

There's an important correction target in the E-Mini S&Ps that lies not far below. Because it has taken more than a month for the futures to get there, we should expect a tradable rally from this Hidden Pivot of at least several days' duration.  Much shorter than that, however, and it'll be Katie-bar-the-door time.  Check out today's tout for specific details and a chart that tells precisely where to jump in.

It's early Monday morning and the futures have been down the equivalent of 100 Dow points so far.  Fading Sunday night selloffs is usually a winner, but I'd caution against doing so before the September contract has touched the 1559.75 correction target shown. (Note: At that point, the Dow would be off by about 220 points.)   Since that would be the culmination of a bear cycle that has taken a little more than a month to play out, we should expect a significant bounce of perhaps 2-3 days before bears could push this vehicle still lower. However, if the Hidden pivot support survives for just a short while -- say, an hour or two -- we should infer that considerable selling remains to be spent. ________ UPDATE (10:56 a.m. EDT): The futures overshot the crystal-clear target given above, meaning sellers have at least one more wave of punishment to inflict on this vehicle. My current target at 1518.50 is a c-d extension of the larger pattern shown, as follows: A=1649.00  (6/19 at 5:00 a.m. EDT); B=1577.00 (6/20 at 4:15 p.m.)

If any stock looks strong enough to turn the market around, it's this one. Unlike Netflix, which has also been quite robust in recent weeks, Google refreshed the bullish energy of the intraday charts with its most recent thrust. You can see that it surpassed May 22's external high at 909.31, strongly implying that the selloff from Wednesday's high is a correction that should be bought.  If and when the pattern I've highlighted trips a buy signal, 'camo' traders should drop down to the 15-minute chart or less for a low-risk entry signal. ________ UPDATE (June 24, 8:12 p.m. EDT): All bets are off, since yesterday's low turned the daily chart into a so-far even 'duel' between bulls and bears. The bearish impulse leg became manifest with a dip beneath June 13's low at 865.50.  _______ UPDATE (July 1, 3:08 a.m. EDT): And now it's bulls who are in charge, targeted on 891.82 (see inset, a fresh chart). Once above the 883.00 midpoint pivot shown, the stock would be a promising long for camouflageurs. We've discovered during the Wednesday sessions that, trading the 30-second chart, one needn't risk more than 15-20 cents per round lot on entry.

Today's DJIA tout spells out exactly what must happen for the bull market to remain healthy enough to achieve new all-time highs. Check out the chart that accompanies the tout for a picture that includes key price points and a hypothetical bearish 'impulse leg' that has yet to occur.

I mentioned in today's commentary that the all-time high achieved in late May was precisely predictable, even if our attention was elsewhere at the time.  The actual high occurred at 15542.40, just five points from a key Hidden Pivot resistance at 15547.50 (see inset).  As a practical matter, the fact that the rally target was achieved somewhat shortens the odds that still higher highs will be seen. We'll know more once we've seen how the current correction place out. If it forms an impulse leg on the weekly chart by exceeding 14444 to the downside, the c-d follow-though leg will be crucially important.  Specifically, the selling would need to reverse from the midpoint of the follow-through leg or higher to imply that the bull market is still healthy.

Refreshing.  Exhilarating, even!  But will it last?  Our gut feeling is that this is not The Big One – that investors will soon be throwing money at stocks again with the same reckless abandon they’ve shown since 2009. But it never hurts to dream. Imagine what a whole month of days like yesterday would do to clear the fetid, toxic air from Wall Street.  The effect would be positively cathartic if the capitulation phase were to lop, say, 2000 points from the Dow in just a few days. From that point forward, even the most churlish permabears  would recognize that the stock market was in recovery mode, too devastated to attract the quasi-criminal element that has controlled price action in recent years. High frequency trading circuitry would be fried, yields on dividend stocks would fatten and interest rates could seek their own level. Who knows? Perhaps even the $3 trillion-plus in dubious assets carried by the Fed would come available at market prices? Meanwhile, although our very bullish Dow target at 16800 remains theoretically valid, the burden of proof has shifted to bulls for a rare change. From a technical standpoint, we can see in retrospect that late May’s record high at 15542 was precisely predictable and therefore shortable. The reason is shown in the weekly chart accompanying today’s DJIA tout, which can be accessed by non-subscribers via a free trial subscription. Those familiar with Hidden Pivot Analysis, including your editor, might want to kick themselves for missing the opportunity. Less easy to miss in the days ahead would be the creation of a bearish “impulse leg” on the weekly chart. The last time this occurred was in July 2011, and it signaled the onset of a 2147-point decline, or 17.6%. If a selloff of similar magnitude were to occur