Rick Ackerman

Violence has erupted in Seattle, Washington D.C. and some other cities Monday night, a development that is likely to fuel a continuation of the rally that kicked off with a short-squeeze late Sunday. There were other factors present that Wall Street seems to love, include a resurgence of Covid-19 nationally and a some dreadful news concerning the disease itself. It would seem that many of the newly infected are young people who have not shown symptoms. They are turning up at hospital emergency rooms in droves nonetheless, leaving care facilities in a quandary about whether to send them home. This trend could all but negate the value of contact tracing, since it will open hospital doors to millions of hypochondriacs. Investors might need a little more bad news to jolt stocks into a yet another bullish frenzy, but this could come as early as this week if the rioters and looters return in force. The move to de-fund police departments may have gained a step with news of the gang-related shooting deaths of two three-year-olds who lived, respectively, in Baltimore and Chicago.  [Late-breaking bulletin: Index futures are falling, but probably not because investors fear America is coming unraveled. More likely, it is just the usual sleazeballs pulling their bids so that stocks can fall hard enough to exhaust sellers. That is how nearly all big rallies are propagated -- with short-covering from artificially induced lows. It is a source of buying power that would continue unalleviated even with the warning sound of trumpets from on high.]

Although the rally on Wall Street flouts common sense and arguably even sanity, born-again bulls continue to rampage. What will put an end to their foolishness? Surely not more grim economic data, nor an increase in what is already the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression, nor a wave of business failures that could eventually asphyxiate the consumer economy. None of these problems has even fazed investors over the last three months. However, creeping doubts about whether Trump is still a shoe-in to win in November could soon make further, upward progress impossible and even reverse the rally precipitously. It is hard to predict exactly when investors will get a whiff of this possibility strong enough to throttle the bullish hubris that has dominated the business sections lately.  They may already have caught the scent of trouble, since stocks spent all of last week in an ominous stall. It became clearer as the week wore on that The Smart Money was distributing shares as gingerly as possible in order to avoid suffocating the delicate mix of buyers said to be driving the rally. The news media has invented the story that the buyers are largely millennials incited to day-trade by America's long lockdown. If so, it's difficult to imagine them, ensconced in their parents' basements, accumulating exorbitantly priced FAANG stocks inflated by the Fed to simulate economic health. The Robinhood crowd may have been responsible for driving the forlorn shares of Hertz into a reckless spasm unlike any ever witnessed.  But HTZ was selling for 40 cents a share, and it is far easier to goose the stock above $5 than to budge a $2600 share of Amazon an inch. Forget the Polls Whoever was doing the buying, they will soon have to reckon with the fact the Trump

Last Sunday night's powerful short squeeze was obviously weighing on bears' minds all week, making them too fearful to push the futures lower with any conviction. Friday's session ended with a timid breakdown that triggered a theoretical 'short' to p=3012.88 of the chart shown. We won't speculate on whether it will hold, but if not, that would signal additional downside over the near term to as low as 2869.50. Even so, I'll recommend bottom-fishing at p using an entry tactic that risks no more 1.50-2.00  points initially. _____ UPDATE (Jun 22, 8:25 p.m.): I am just a spectator now and no longer trying to get short, since it feels like everyone else is trying too. I still doubt the futures are going anywhere -- other than down once DaBoyz have finished distributing as much stock as the traffic will bear. That could happen today, tomorrow or next week, but it's pointless to obsess over the question of exactly when. _______ UPDATE (Jun 23, 8:55 p.m.): Wednesday will usher in Day 7 of a skillful distribution by DaBoyz. Conditions are perfect for this, since nothing says 'Buy buy buy!' like the resurgence of a pandemic.  V-shaped-recovery bozos, Kudlow chief among them, took a hit from Fauci, who asserted that the virus would not slow down over the summer. The damage this will do to businesses that are barely surviving is incalculable, and that too was evidently deemed a 'positive' on Wall Street, since it could coax new stimulus from the Guvmint. _______ UPDATE (Jun 24, 7:38 p.m.): There's no reason for speculation or doubt, since the futures' impending interaction with a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 3012.88 should tell us all we need to know.  If the support is crushed or the September contract closes for two straight days below it, that would

This trade could work for novices, since the midpoint pivot is so well situated and the impulse leg is strictly 'kosher' (and even a little gnarly).  Stay tuned to the Trading Room if you're keen to play, since I will try to make myself available for precise guidance if the trade triggers. The gist of it would be to buy a June 26 call at the lowest strike where they are trading for under $1. That would be around 266/267, but I can't be sure until I've seen how things open Monday morning. There's always the chance DIA will open on a gap, as it nearly always does, that is beneath the p=254.53 midpoint pivot where we intend to do our buying. You should attempt the trade with the DIA within 0.05 points or less of that number, but not if DIA has dropped below 254.43. ______ UPDATE (Jun 22, 8:34 p.m. EDT): I still like the trade, although not as much after enduring three days of gratuitous sideways shuffle at or below the green line. If p=254.82 is hit within the first hour of the regular session, do as recommended; otherwise, cancel all plans. ____ UPDATE (June 2, 9:01 p.m.): Tedium has taken its toll on the trade, and so we've canceled it. Better opportunities will surely come along _______ UPDATE (Jun 24, 7:46 p.m.): The breach of the 254.62 midpoint support was less than two points, but that's sufficient to shift the burden of proof to bulls. An acceleration to the downside would put the 242.09 target shown in the chart in play. _______ UPDATE (Jun 25, 6:08 p.m.): A rally to x=260.88 would trip a 'mechanical' short via this pattern with a stop-loss at 267.14. This is NOT to be traded using put options, since the trade is not

Early June's powerful impulse leg suggests that a pullback to p=9854.7 would offer a compelling 'mechanical' buying opportunity. The stop-loss would be at 9692.50. I am wary of putting this trade out on a Sunday night, however, since you never know how ugly things could get in the netherworld of off-hours trading. On balance, I'll suggest paper trading this one, even if I am rating it a juicy '7.6'.  Pivoteers  proficient with 'camouflage' set-ups can attempt it with real money nonetheless, provided you can find a set-up on the one- or five-minute chart that limits initial theoretical risk to perhaps $125 per contract. A 10,571 rally target given here earlier remains viable, as does the lesser one at 10341 shown in the chart. ______ UPDATE (Jun 22, 8:42 p.m.): The trade triggered around 7:00 p.m. and is showing a profit at the moment of around $25,000 on four contracts. No one even mentioned NQ in the chat room, so I am not establishing a tracking position. The generous (but mechanically necessary) 9692.50 stop-loss proved unnecessary, since the futures never dipped more than slightly below the 9854.75 entry price. D=10341 is still the minimum upside projection. _______ UPDATE (Jun 23, 9:05 p.m.): Today's psychotic lunge came within 0.4% of the 10341 target -- close enough to consider it fulfilled. Even so, if short-covering bears get second wind and push the futures to our number, you can still short there with a very tight stop-loss. You can also use QQQ to interpolate if you don't do futures. _______ UPDATE (Jun 24, 8:04 p.m.):  Sellers looked like they had unfinished business at the close, implying the futures could fall all the way to the 9840.50 target shown in this chart if the weakness snowballs. ______UPDATE (Jun 25, 6:22 p.m.): This morning's bullish reversal e bounce

August gold rallied on Friday to within a millimeter of a 1762.40 Hidden Pivot that I'd said would show stopping power. The 1760.90 high was also a single tick shy of an external peak recorded on June 1. The shallow retracement that followed is encouraging on the question of whether a breakout is coming, but it would take a strong follow-through surpassing p=1772.90 in this chart to put the 1877.40 target seriously in play.  Mechanical trades initiated using the pattern have entry risk approaching $2500 per contract, but we may be able to use smaller patterns to get it done. As always, you should tune to the Trading Room if you're interested. _______ UPDATE (June 22, 8:49 p.m.EDT): The futures poked above 1772.90 (see above) for a moment but closed below it. This is encouraging but not quite sufficient to lock up a moon shot to the 1877.40 target. There are probably too many rightly enthusiastic buyers at this point for the futures to pull back to x=1721, but if they do, consider it a gift to traders looking for a high-odds mechanical entry, stop 1668.30. _______ UPDATE (Jun 24, 8:07): A head-fake to 1796 before DaBoyz pulled the plug would have stopped out any shorts from the 1790 level I'd flagged.  All bullish targets above remain valid in theory, but we'll wait and see what the little POS does on Thursday before we try anything new. ______ UPDATE (Jun 25, 6:30 p.m.): A day of tedium reiterated a 'mechanical' buy at x=1772.40 triggered Wednesday morning. We're not officially in the trade, but 50% should be exited at p=1786.50, worked against a stop-loss at 1758.30.

AAPL stalled in a precarious place Friday en route to what had looked like a high-probability rally target at 370.19. Actually, the stall occurred well shy of a lesser target at 363.34 shown in the chart. It too was 'high-probability, given the gap through the midpoint resistance on Friday. Both patterns remains viable, but the stock's canny handlers will need to exercise care trying to re-inflate the stock, since the bad news on the company -- 11 stores shut down again due to Covid-19 outbreaks -- is not something easily shrugged off. Regardless of how things play out, we'll continue to treat AAPL as the stock most capable of leading the world's stocks markets in either direction or even sideways.

I haven't featured TSLA in a while, but the promising pattern shown in the chart was too fetching to ignore. It suggests not only that a $106 rally lies just ahead, but that a short initiated when the stock is between the two targets, respectively at 1096.89 and 1106.46 will enjoy favorable odds. I'll provide a more detailed instruction at the appropriate time,  but the gist of it will be to buy put options priced at $1 or less with about two weeks left on them. Stay tuned to the Trading Room and this tout if you're interested. ______ UPDATE (Jul 1, 8:16 a.m. EDT): For what's it's worth, making money with call options when I forecast a 106-point rally ten days ago was MUCH harder than it sounds. If for instance you had bought July 3 1100 calls then for around $16, you'd be up a whopping when the stock was peaking yesterday at 1088. The short play remains viable nevertheless if and when the stock climbs into the specified range.  ______ UPDATE (Jul 1, 10:19 p.m.): Subscribers used the 1142.51 Hidden Pivot target shown in this chart to get short via the Sep 18 560/600/640 put butterfly spread. Variations on this strategy were reported, and different prices, but for your further guidance, I'll track four spreads @ 1.00. This price was anomalously low, but do-able nonetheless. It's possible the 600-strike puts shorted in this gambit were abnormally juicy because retail customers were buying them as a longshot bet.  Puts at the 700 strike were similarly overpriced. TSLA may get second wind a pop above D, but I doubt it will get very far. _______ UPDATE (Jul 2, 10:00 a.m.): Love those bearish butterflies!  When we put them on with the stock $90 lower than this morning's high, using an 1142 target,

The psychotic pre-dawn spasm shown in the chart did nothing to alter an unexciting picture. As I have have said here repeatedly, gold is not in a bull market, but a bullish one. The former produces relentless rallies, with occasional swoons that are quickly recouped.  Gold has done no such thing. It continues to mark time with little institutional support, unable to compete for attention with the Mother of All Short Squeeze Rallies. For now, we'll consider gold's prospects one day at a time. The slight breach of the 1725.80 midpoint support suggests bears will have an edge over the near term. Even so, if you are comfortable with rABC trades and their ability to limit risk significantly, bottom-fishing at p2=1714.10 looks like a potential winner. Any significant slippage below this threshold would open a path to D=1702.40.  Alternatively, if the futures unexpectedly move higher, a push past 1748.40 would imply more upside to at least 1762.40, a Hidden Pivot that could show some stopping power. ______ UPDATE (Jun 23, 9:15 EDT): In after-hours trading the futures have speared a 1790 target I posted in the chat room this afternoon. Traders who got short there should have covered half of it around 1786.40, since the pullback to that number is equal to three times what was risked at the 1791.80 top.  For now, I'd suggest a 1790.50 stop-loss for the remaining half, o-c-o with an order to cover another 25% of the position at 1785.80.