August Gold has struggled for loft after bouncing from just beneath a Hidden Pivot support at 1903.90 that I'd flagged on June 29. Bullion tends to taunt us with weakness before rallying sharply (albeit fleetingly) to nowhere in particular. In this case, however, it looks like it wants to go lower in order to get better footing for a sustained uptrend. We can use the 1875.00 downside target shown for now, but we'll switch to a more bullish outlook for trading purposes if buyers can push above an external peak at 1949.00 recorded two weeks ago. _______ UPDATE (Jul 13, 10:15 a.m.): The futures tripped a 'mechanical' short when they came within a hair of x=1969.30 at 8:35. The subsequent $12 dive could have been shorted with a reverse-pattern trigger, but I am suggesting only that you paper-trade this one. If it is stopped out with a rally above the pattern's 'C' high, that would be the most bullish event we've seen in a while. Even then, we shouldn't trust the rally until it has created a series of impulse legs on the lesser charts.
Silver has more stubbornly resisted the tug of gravity than gold, but the 21.44 downside target remains a logical short-term price objective nonetheless. An unexpected pop to 23.90 would trigger a 'conventional' buy signal, but until such time as that occurs, we should trade this contract with a bearish bias. Although it seems unlikely the 22.34 low recorded on June 23 will prove to be an important one, it is capable if it endures of launching the futures to as high as 28.56.
GDXJ would give gold-stock bulls reason for optimism if it can pop above the 'external' peak at 37.68 recorded on June 16. However, it is more realistic to expect additional slippage toward the 32.25 low that has shaped the pattern shown. A breach thereof would create a buying opportunity, even if it were merely to take advantage of a likely fake-out rally that doesn't get very far. Please note that GDXJ is still on a 'mechanical' buy signal from June 20 that we passed up.
August Crude's histrionics have been easily tradeable, most recently via a nasty dive on Thursday from within three cents of a rally target advertised here when fresh touts went out to you last Sunday evening. The futures rampaged to a strong close on Friday that could get legs, but more immediately they will face resistance from the 74.29 Hidden Pivot resistance shown in this chart. Pivoteers familiar with reverse-pattern (rABC) trades can try it with a trigger interval no greater than 16 cents, but be alert to a possible short squeeze that blows the target to smithereens when trading resumes this evening.
Will the rich and powerful own everything when the global financial system collapses from too much debt? Supposedly, "they" have been plotting and preparing for this all along -- even getting a new money system ready to make the takeover complete. But this theory makes no more sense than the one that puts the same evil geniuses in charge of the world's wealth after a 'vaccine' time-bomb kills off billions of gene-pool riffraff, including you, me and most of our neighbors. Will "they" really want to live in a world emptied of humanity by death and disease -- a world where yacht skippers, sommeliers, Ferrari mechanics, truffle-hunters, couturiers, gourmet chefs, interior designers and even bootblacks have perished? They might as well be feudal lords living in the 1300s, walled off from the devastation and misery of bubonic plague. Even Bill Gates, who reportedly owns a quarter-million acres of farmland, might have trouble feeding himself and his fellow eugenicists if there are no workers to seed and harvest the land. And how will Klaus Schwab, Imperial Wizard of the One-Worlders, celebrate victory with friends in Davos if there is no one to fly them there, or to provision a banquet hall with ample quantities of Beluga, foie gras and smoked trout croquettes? Those who believe that an all-knowing, all-powerful "they" have been plotting a global shakedown to steal the world's wealth and resources might well ask, What assets will remain for them to command? It is a massive deleveraging event that is coming, and it will turn all kinds of financialized exotica, including reverse floaters, offshore drilling leases and securitized debt, into rubbish. Meanwhile, returns tied to the production and distribution of critical resources such as water end energy will become too tightly regulated during the Second Great Depression to spawn
If you know any kids trying to break into journalism, there are two interesting stories waiting to be developed that have gotten scant attention from the mainstream media, what with all the fuss over a packet of cocaine left in the White House by you-know-who). The first concerns the collapse of America's postal delivery system. We're all familiar with the unofficial motto of the USPS: "Neither snow nor rain nor heat nor gloom of night stays these couriers from the swift completion of their appointed rounds," Well, you can fuggeddaboutit, since, these days, it would seem, just about anything can, and does, keep the mail from getting delivered. I discovered this in the worst way when an alimony check that I mailed out on April 24 failed to reach my 'ex' by the first of May. In fact, it still hasn't reached her, and a subsequent check for the month of June took 16 days to be delivered -- four days late, as it happened. If you are a divorced guy, then you know that few things are as likely to provoke one's former spouse as an alimony check that has failed to arrive when due. Well Fargo, my banker, acknowledged that postal deliveries have been 'slow', but they said there is nothing they can do about it. My solution is to use Zelle for money transfers, even if it, too, has caused problems requiring many hours of back-and-forth on the phone to resolve. Unfortunately, there is no way to Zelle a card for Mother's Day, Valentine's day or a birthday card, and so one must emply an old-fashioned method to ensure a timely delivery -- i.e., mailing the card three or four weeks in advance. There's no guarantee it will get there in time, but when it doesn't
Buyers drove AAPL through a long-term midpoint resistance at 189.07 with such force last week that there can be little doubt they are capable of achieving the 253.96 'D' target of the pattern shown. Like most powerful rallies in this stock and other lunatic-sector faves, this one achieved most of the gains on gaseous volume and without requiring a large infusion of fresh cash. That's because the thimble-riggers who control the stock allowed it to waft higher overnight, creating a short-covering gap of nearly $3 at the opening bell. An unexpected swoon to x=156.62 would trigger a juicy 'mechanical' buy, but that's why we shouldn't count on it. ______ UPDATE (July 5, 7:21 p.m.): So far, AAPL is just filling a gap from last Friday. However, a print below 189.11 would generate a minor impulse leg on the hourly chart that we should take note of.
The stock market remains in the grip of mass psychosis, leveraged by con-men who know how to exploit investors' stupidity and greed. Look at how DaBoyz handled a tough Hidden Pivot resistance at 4471.00 last week that had been nearly nine months in coming. Ordinarily we might have expected a correction of perhaps 5-7 weeks to give the futures enough time to recharge for a push to new record highs. Instead, the mindless herd chomped through the resistance on first encounter two weeks ago, then returned on Friday to devour what was left. The implication is that the 4819 target shown in this composite weekly chart is in play and can be used by traders as a minimum upside projection. Meanwhile, a voodoo number at 4562 is the first place we might expect a significant, tradeable reversal.
August Gold turned from nearly exactly where expected, a 1903.90 Hidden Pivot support of middling importance. The actual low occurred at 1900.60, strongly suggesting that our bid was front-run by others using the same, visually obvious pattern we employed to project a downside target. If it turns out that too many smart guys got aboard for this reason, we should expect the futures to screw 'em all by stopping out the 1900.60 low before embarking on a sustained rally. This should have a positive impact on our ability to trade this vehicle profitably, since exploiting fake-outs is our forte. In any event, an alternative target at 1875.00 will remain viable, at least in theory, until such time as 2000.70 (i.e., an alternative 'C' high) is exceeded to the upside.
The way sellers crushed p=22.92 on June 21 leaves little room for optimism that this correction will somehow avoid falling all the way down to the 21.21 target of the pattern shown. In fact, even a strong rally to the green line (x=23.77) would set up a 'mechanical' short that we should not pass up. The pattern meets all of our requirements for legitimacy but is perhaps a tad too obvious to produce a tradeable low at exactly 21.21. We'll attempt to bottom-fish there nonetheless if and when the time comes, but with a 'camouflage' trigger that allows for some skirmishing ahead of the expected turn. We'll also need to consider an alternative target at 20.98 that would result from treating the somewhat higher 'A' at 26.43 (May 5) as a one-off peak. _______ UPDATE (July 3, 5:55 p.m.): The equivalent downside target for the September contract is 21.44, and a rally to 23.98 would trip a mechanical' short.
