Rick Ackerman

Last week's five-day stall just shy of a crucial 'external' peak at 105.63 recorded on January 6 is not a healthy sign. I've labeled it 'ominous' in the chart, although we should probably give bulls the benefit of the doubt for at least another week while they regroup. Perhaps it will take a pullback and a running start to clear the structural hurdle? If so, the retracement had better not exceed the 102.59 low recorded on February 14, since that would turn the daily chart decisively bearish and shorten the odds of a fall to 100.55, a Hidden Pivot target that is already theoretically in play. _______ UPDATE (Mar 7, 5:08 p.m.): Har-har. Markets act so predictably like fun-house mirrors that we shouldn't be even slightly surprised that today's psychotic leap from lugubriousness exceeded my 105.63 benchmark by a whopping two cents. Tuppence is plenty enough for us to focus once again on the bullish case, since the rally created an undeniable, unmistakable impulse leg on the daily chart. Let's see DXY can get past the next impediment, a voodoo number at 106.42.

Last week's subdued bounce created a bullish outside bar on the weekly chart, implying the uptrend will continue. However, if it reaches the green line (x=1925) that lies $70 above, that would trigger an appealing 'mechanical' short, stop 1976. That doesn't necessarily mean the futures would recede back into the bowels of hell, only that the short would be a good bet to return a one-level profit with a drop to the red line (p=1874.90) before the larger uptrend resumes. The 1774.50 downside target will remain theoretically valid nonetheless until such time as C=1975.20 is exceeded.

Silver's modest rally last week failed to trip a theoretical buy signal when it narrowly missed the green line (see inset).  The impulse leg that cued up the pattern is legitimate and even compelling, however, and that's why the resulting Hidden Pivot levels are likely to be useful for trading and analytical purposes once the futures have popped above x. The bull cycle is theoretically capped at D=24.45, but that doesn't negate the possibility that bulls will shred the target and make a run for structural resistance around $27. ______ UPDATE (Mar 7, 5:19 p.m.): Do shakeouts really have to be as brutal as today's kamikaze dive?  It put in play a hitherto unthinkable downside target at 18.51 that can serve as a worst-case objective for the next 6-8 days. The way sellers pulped the red line (p=20.32) implies that the target, as painful as it sounds, is hardly a longshot bet. More immediately, the selloff should have little trouble reaching p2=19.42, a secondary Hidden Pivot that can serve as a minimum downside objective but also as a place to attempt cautious bottom-fishing.

Since GDXJ's rally met all the conditions I'd imposed on it last week, it's time to throw more cold water on the bullish idea. The bearish case rests on the question of whether downside D=31.70, narrowly missed on the last bout of weakness, will ultimately be achieved. Regardless, a quick run-up now to x=38.80 would offer an excellent opportunity to get short 'mechanically'. The implied relapse shouldn't necessarily be expected to fulfill the downside D, however, and I doubt that it will.  I remain skeptical in any event that the bounce that began from Feb 24's bottom at 32.46 will get legs. I'd feel somewhat different about this if the third of my three conditions, a push above an 'external' peak at 35.15, had not required a one-day pullback and a running start. That is timid price action, and it suggests bulls don't yet have the moxie to blitz doubters.

Unlike the E-Mini S&Ps, AAPL peaked in early February without having exceeded October's 'external' high. This means the entire rally from the January low at 124 is not impulsive. In that context, last week's surge, which ended with a 3.5% gain on Friday, should be regarded as a bear tease. If I had to pick one vehicle or the other as representative of the stock market's potential over the next 3-5 weeks, I'd go with the laggard AAPL. Since subscribers seem uninterested in trading this vehicle (except when I serve up a profitable day-trade in the chat room, as occurred a couple of weeks ago) I'll say no more for now. Do nudge me in the room, however, if the stock does something to catch your attention.

Last week's goosing occurred in a place too obvious to be taken seriously. TLT opened Thursday on a gap beneath December's double low at 99.35, shaking out the many bulls who were counting on the low for last-ditch support. Without their drag to burden the bounce that ensued, Friday saw a vertical climb that began with a short-squeeze gap well above the previous day's close. The chart shows how far shy of persuasive the rally fell nonetheless, and what TLT must do before we can safely assume the bull market begun in October 2022 has resumed.

Americans grew effortlessly richer last week when a two-day rally in stocks and bonds added many hundreds of billions of instantly spendable dollars to the economy. Most of it would have dropped into the hands of traders, speculators and portfolio managers. However, enough will trickle down to sales reps at Bijan, Dolce & Gabbana and Bulgari that the big-ticket binge eventually will turn up as GDP growth.  AAPL, a Bellagio fountain of liquid wealth, added perhaps $90 billion all by itself when it rose 3.5% on Friday. Not too shabby, considering the rally stemmed almost entirely from short-covering rather than bullish buying. How do we know this? Simply because the fleeting, shallow pullbacks the entire way up evinced the mini mood-swings, from hopefulness to despair to capitulation, that bears exhibit when things are not going their way. Glimpsed on the intraday chart above, the rhythms of the water-drip torture they endured for two days are as distinctive and ominous as atrial fibrillation on an EKG tape. AAPL's rally was more decapitation than torture, with at least 80% of it occurring in the first hour on gossamer volume.   Exhaustion Spike   We continue to view the uptrend as a bear-market fake, implying it is incapable of achieving new all-time highs. But it could get close enough to scare the hell out of bears, and that's exactly what it will do if they continue to fight it. Such battles tend to end with an exhaustion spike, followed by a headline reaction to the downside. The sudden revival of the bear market begun in January 2022 promises to be a doozy. Although Papa Bear's initial phase, which lasted ten months, lopped 22% from the value of the Dow Industrials, it lacked the climactic selling that would have signaled that the worst was

Our infallible stock-market bellwether remains mired in a bear market that could have years to run, but that doesn't necessarily mean a a collapse below $100 is imminent. A less serious fall to 135.95 would trigger a fetching 'mechanical' buy, actually, with a potential ride up to as high as D=171.28.  We'd likely take the money and run with AAPL trading well shy of that, since bear-market rallies are not supposed to reach their d targets. If there is anything in the chart that might give bears a ray of hope, it is the narrow failure of the short-squeeze begun from 124 to exceed October's 'external' peak at 157.  AAPL's institutional sponsors may be thieves, deceivers, cheats and bullies, but it turns out they are also too lacking in guts and conviction to fool this chart into turning very bullish. ______ UPDATE (Mar 1, 9:51 p.m.) The 135.95 'mechanical'-trade level mentioned above is looking increasingly likely to see action. Although that would imply a brutal plunge lies ahead, bear in mind that when the stock gets there and it seems like the end of the world, it will actually be an attractive BUYING opportunity.

A monthly chart stretching back nearly 20 years shows the devastation that has occurred in long-term Treasurys since they spiked to 179 as pandemic fears took hold in March 2021.  If TLT is ultimately on its way down to D=73.69, it's hard to imagine what the economic landscape would look like at that point; however, it certainly would not be in the ruinous state of deflation that I've long predicted.  More immediately, TLT signaled a textbook 'mechanical' short at x=108.84 that is all but certain to hit p=97.19 on the relapse. An easy move through this Hidden Pivot would leave it on track for a further fall to p2=85.44.