The chart uses a conventional pattern yielding a downside target at 120.82 that nearly matches an important one we derived earlier from a trendline. It will allow us to trade precise levels if the opportunity should arise. So far, though, even after Friday's sharp, go-along rally, AAPL still failed to generate an impulse leg on the daily chart. That would occur if buyers push this hoax above last Tuesday's 130.90 peak, but even then I wouldn't get too excited. A counterintuitive feature of this chart is that if the rally were to go ballistic, hitting x= 148.33, that would trigger a compelling 'mechanical' short. With close observation, though, we may be able to get short well beneath that level, presumably in a boring 'discomfort zone' where the rally seems fated to die.
[The following went out in mid-December to clients of Doug Behnfield, a Boulder-based wealth manager and senior vice president at Morgan Stanley. The letter provides an insightful view of the economic landscape as we enter the new year. Doug foresees falling stocks, falling inflation (or possibly modest deflation) and a continuing rally in long-term Treasurys. He is one of the most successful investors I know, and also one of the wisest. I have featured his work here many times in the past and am grateful for the opportunity to share his timely thoughts with Rick's Picks readers. I've substituted my own charts from Tradestation for the ones in the original report because they reproduce with greater clarity. Also, the irreverent picture above was my choice, not Doug's. He was assisted in preparing the report by his son Max Behnfield, a financial advisor at Morgan Stanley; and by Amelia Guidi, vice president and financial advisor in Morgan Stanley's Boulder office. RA ] As we wind down a challenging year in the financial markets, there are many events that have occurred that shaped the outcomes that are much easier to see in retrospect. At this time last year, the stock market was making its last glorious run to all-time highsjust as Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, was being handed the Keys to the City in terms of controlling inflation by President Biden. Powell immediately set out to alter the course of monetary policy that had been Fed Doctrine since 1987, when Alan Greenspan took over as Fed Chairman from Paul Volcker. What has happened since has been quite dramatic. Considering the very recent, downward reversal in long-term interest rates and the accompanying rally in the bond market, now seems like an appropriate time to chronicle what has transpired over the
A fall to at least 121.60 early in the new year still looks inevitable. That's not a Hidden Pivot target, but rather a closely measured approximation of where the trendline will be at the end of this week. We'll look to bottom-fish using a small-degree reverse pattern (rABC) when the stock gets there. However, given the compelling clarity of the channel lines, if the bounce were to peter out quickly, that would be ominous. Although my long-term forecast sees AAPL eventually falling to $50 or lower, I don't see this happening any time soon.
Stocks are even weaker than they appear. Notice how the E-Mini S&Ps failed to penetrate a sitting-duck trendline on their final, desperate short-squeeze lunge of the year. The broad averages are obviously marking time until DaBoyz have distributed as much stock as possible. With the U.S. recession continuing to deepen, however, they are going to have their greedy hands full trying to corral a new bunch of pigeons when trading begins in 2023. For now, we'll stick with the 3682.00 'secondary' Hidden Pivot shown in this chart as our minimum downside objective. It's tied to a 'D' target at 3516.00 that is well in play but not a worst-case number for the early new year. Lower projections at 3460.00 and 3349.25 are possible using successively higher point 'A' peaks at, respectively, 4250.00 (8/26) and 4361.00 (8/16).
The chart shows what can happen when the so-called smart money gets trapped. Given the unnaturally tight trading range that bitcoin's deft conspirators have maintained for nearly two months, one might believe they are capable of holding the cryptocurrency above $15,000 indefinitely. Unfortunately for them, the chart is telegraphing a fall to at least 11,484. Bitcoin's deep-pocketed sponsors undoubtedly have been hoping to be rescued by a powerful short-squeeze, but this is looking increasingly unlikely to materialize from these levels. As 'Trader Mike' Schurr likes to remind us in the chat room, hope is not a strategy. The smart guys will have a better chance of propagating a short-covering panic if they allow more slippage, however painful, to the 11,484 Hidden Pivot. Even then, the reaction move would be limited by mountainous supply above $25,000 from players whose cost basis is at least twice that. More likely, in the context of an intensifying bear market in stocks that could run for years, is a washout that threatens to take bitcoin down to $5000 or lower. ______ UPDATE (Jan 9, 5:43 p.m.): Today's volumeless waft just missed touching an important midpoint Hidden Pivot at 17,456. Buyers will need to pulverize it, however, to demonstrate their seriousness and ability to reach D=18,634. _______ UPDATE (Jan 12, 11:39 p.m.): Bertie's doomed rally topped in an obvious spot, at the 19157 D target of this pattern, It is into serious supply now, so we shouldn't expect today's Whoopee Cushion squeeze to continue much higher.
March Gold's tortuous climb to a 1907.10 Hidden Pivot target continued last week in the accustomed way: an impressive leap followed by exhaustive backing and filling, The futures have signaled only one 'mechanical' buy at the green line, and it went on to produce a theoretical profit of about $2,200 per contract. A second such signal if gold relapses would be worth bottom-fishing, although my gut feeling is that the implied trek to D would be a messy, tedious slog, assuming the target is achieved, Although that still seems likely, it is not a given because of the difficulty the March contract has had surmounting midpoint resistance. ______ UPDATE (Jan 6, 11:24 p.m.): No change. Feb Gold remains on track for a run-up to at least 1907.10, a Hidden Pivot target that has kept us confidently on the right side of the trend for more than a month. Let's keep our fingers crossed and hope that bulls blow the 'D' target to smithereens when they first connect with it. _______ UPDATE (Jan 12, 11:47 p.m.): This morning's lunatic leap came within a split hair (i.e., 0.50) of fulfilling the longstanding target at 1907.10. Anyone who shorted there should have taken a partial profit on the subsequent $19 dive. The shallow pullback so far suggests bulls are not finished,
March Silver's rally to D=24.95 was signaled a month ago and lies but one good thrust above. That will be scant consolation to bulls who just slogged through yet another week with no reward. Silver futures have outperformed gold, however, having consolidated at p2 while the latter was stuck a level lower at p. A swift pullback to the line (p=22.86) should be used as an opportunity to get long with a 22.16 stop-loss. The risk is substantial, so the trade is recommended only if you know how to cut it by around 90% with a 'camouflage' trigger. _______ UPDATE (Jan 4, 7:10 p.m.): The recent high at 24.78 fulfilled the target for trading purposes, although it remains theoretically viable. A 'dynamic' stop-loss would have taken you out of the trade at around 24.77. ________ UPDATE (Jan 6): March Silver is not likely to make a marginal new high that touches our longstanding target at 24.95 only to die there. Assuming buyers pop through it, we should expect Feb Gold to do the same when it reaches a corresponding target at 1907. The C-D leg has provided only one opportunity so far to get long 'mechanically', adding to the evidence that there is still considerable buying power percolating beneath the surface. Here's the big picture.
Bulls have so boldly ignored the deepening global recession that I've switched to a bigger 'reverse' pattern with a higher rally target at 87.43. Don't expect the March contract to get there any time soon, though, since it has already spent more than a week head-butting a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 78.87. In the meantime, a sharp relapse to the green line (x=74.59) should be used to get long with a 'mechanical' bid, stop 70.31. This one's for subscribers who know how to cut entry risk down to size by using a micro-pattern to initiate the trade. This is what we call 'camouflage' trading, and it is much easier than you might imagine. Ask in the chat room if you're curious. _______ UPDATE (Jan 4, 7:16 p.m.): In the chat room today I suggested buying 13th Jan 67.5-70.0 vertical call spreads for 0.25 to 0.49, day order. However, you can bid 0.25-0.30 for them on Thursday, provided the futures are trading 73.00 or higher. Please let me know if you bought any spreads so that I can determine whether to provide a tracking position. ______ UPDATE (Jan 5, 11:45 p.m.): No one said a word, so I won't be updating with further guidance.
Three weeks of jitterbugging around the 104.08 midpoint Hidden Pivot support has left the Dollar Index primed for a fall to at least p2=102.13, and thence to D=100.18, a target first signaled in late November. The weakness has somewhat alleviated pressure on gold and silver and promises to contribute to their further ascent, possibly with a spike finale to an intermediate top. Presumably, it would occur above the 1908.10 peak currently forecast for the March Comex contract. ______ UPDATE (Jan 6): The Dollar Index shook us briefly out of complacency by adding an Ali Shuffle to its all-too-familiar jitterbug routine. A bull-trap rally before Friday's opening bar reversed with such ferocity that we should infer the bearish targets above are still likely to be achieved. I'll reconsider only if it pops above 105.81. Here's the picture.
Be skeptical if stocks start the new year on a positive note, since that would be the perfect way for Mr Market to set the hook to trap bulls and bears alike. It would probably take most of the opening session on Tuesday for an enticing rally to build up steam, since the bears who would be doing most of the buying via short-covering will need some painful prodding before they hit the panic button. Mr Market has had an especially hard time trying to stampede them lately, since he holds such lousy cards. Recession is upon us, tightening its grip as the shares of such former world-beaters as Apple, Tesla, Google, Facebook and Amazon have collapsed. This has caused the "wealth effect" to deflate precipitously, unnerving investors who understand that the carnage will end only when a tsunami of exhaustion selling lays waste to the most resilient bulls. Not Bottomless My best-case scenario comes from AAPL's chart, which looks ugly but not bottomless. In fact, the stock need only fall a further $8 or so, to around $121, to find good support at a trendline I've been drum-rolling for months. "Get Apple right and you get the stock market right" has been Rick's Picks' mantra for nearly two years, and it has served us well. Because the stock provided a decade-long free ride for portfolio managers and has hooked them like dope, it will always tell us exactly what's on their minds. Now, despite grim headlines and dark clouds of war and recession hanging over 2023, Apple's chart says the stock market's decline may have just a little further to go before either stabilizing or rebounding. Some of my guru colleagues appear to expect strongly otherwise and have been predicting a January disaster. But don't be surprised if stocks
