Rick Ackerman

The off-kilter pattern shown, with a weak A-B segment that obscures the chart's 'mechanical' appeal, yields a picture that could provide two trading opportunities as the new week begins : 1) a 'mechanical' buy at the green line (x=4016.75), stop 4001.75; or, 2) a short at D=4061.00 with a stop-loss as tight as 1.50 points. The first looks more appealing but would require a 'camouflage' set-up on a chart of lesser degree to shrink the implied entry risk of $750 per contract. _______ UPDATE (Nov 28, 9:46 p.m.): So much for bottom-fishing at 4016.75, a trade done in by a Sunday night air pocket that turned out to be honest-to-goodness selling. Going forward,  use this corrective 'reverse' pattern, to gauge trend strength and trade, since it has profitability going for it, even if achieved under duress.  A decisive breach of the red line (p=3938.75) would telegraph more downside top2=3882.94, or even D=3827.00, a Hidden Pivot support that can be bottom-fished with the tightest stop-loss you can craft. _______ UPDATE (Nov 30, 6:52 p.m.): Stocks screamed higher, not because of bullish buying, but because no seller would dare get in the way when the Fed is talking its book. That's how bear rallies work, instantly adding hundreds of billions of 'dollars' to the financial economy without requiring any effort or even bulls to do the lifting. This short-covering binge is bound for at least 4214.00 -- a near-certainty given the way it vaporized the 4064 midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance.

There are bigger 'reverse' patterns with more ambitious rally targets to consider, but we'll start with this modest ABC, since D=104.42 has yet to be achieved. It almost surely will be, though, judging from the way buyers shredded the midpoint Hidden Pivot and kept on going. If this so-far bear rally is going to get legs, we should expect it to take out D with little trouble and to close decisively above it when the week ends.

Friday's high surpassed a look-to-the-left peak recorded a week earlier, refreshing the bullish impulsiveness of the intraday charts. The original chart contained a bad print down at 1719.00, but cleaning it up has produced a serviceable pattern with a midpoint resistance at 1760.30 that can serve as a minimum objective. A further run-up to D=1774.60 would become an odds-on bet if buyers shred their way past 1760 -- or better yet, close above it for two consecutive days. ______ UPDATE (Nov 28, 9:57 p.m.): Here's a fresh chart that salvages a bullish outlook despite today's nasty reversal. It also treats the 1719.00 low of last Wednesday's wack-o downdraft as though it actually happened, which appears to be the case. The chart has signaled a so-so 'mechanical'  buy at x=1740.30 (stop 1718.90) off an intraday high that did not quite reach our sweet spot around 1772.00. ______ UPDATE (Nov 29, 11:02 a.m.): Here's an update on that last chart. It shows the February contract with a D target at 1818.50. Precise play off p=1776.00  suggests this pattern will work well for trading and assessing trend strength. It has already yielded a 'mechanical' buy at the green line that could have been worth as much as $2000 per contract overnight.

The December contract exceeded my minimum expectation last week at 21.50, so I've selected a more ambitious rally pattern with a 22.40 target to keep us a step ahead of the herd if Silver continues to rise as expected. A pullback to the green line (x=21.05) would trigger a 'mechanical' buy, but the balky A-B leg argues against trying to get long with a conventional bid and a 20.59 stop-loss. Camouflage may be the ticket, so stay tuned to that chat room if you're interested. _______ UPDATE (Nov 28, 10:03 p.m.): The futures took a $1200 bounce from within a half-cent of the green line, enabling at least one subscriber to report a quick profit in the chat room.  Silver's subsequent relapse has muddied the immediate picture and left me with nothing exciting to recommend for today. My 'voodoo number' for a possible turn would be 20.98 -- worth risking no more than 2-3 cents on a stop. _______ UPDATE (Nov 30, 7:12 p.m.): A bullish pattern going back to early November would be superseded by a larger one if this rally decisively exceeds 22.73, basis the March contract, or closes above it for two consecutive days. The new target, a clear and compelling Hidden Pivot resistance, would be at 24.325, shown in this chart. 

The reverse pattern shown is the most ambitious I've used for this vehicle in a long while, with a D target at 41.17 that lies 17% above. It seems well warranted, however, given the way the C-D leg has closed above p=33.49 for a third consecutive week after the initial push past it.  Another plus is that the A-B impulse leg has yet to correct, and retracements on the daily chart have been short-lived. Actually, a more punitive pullback may be needed to set up the next big thrust, so don't be surprised to see a swoon take out last week's low at 32.77. That would be a buying opportunity, for sure.

The steep ascent from the 1618 low recorded on November 3 has enough power to all but guarantee another big leg up once the initial leg has been fully corrected.  It surpassed no fewer than five prior peaks, three of them 'external', without a visible correction on the daily chart.  So that we don't let expectations get too far ahead of reality, I've projected a rally target at 1907.60 that uses a somewhat conservative 'reverse' pattern. In the meantime, a pullback to the green line (x=1690.60) would generate an appealing 'mechanical' buy signal. The rally may prove too strong to gift us with such an opportunity, but we should be prepared to act if the futures swoon.

Although I expect Silver to continue moving higher, I've displayed a mildly bearish reverse-pattern (see inset) because it promises to work well for augmenting long positions with risk under tight control. On Thursday, for instance, sellers corrected the December contract down to the red line (p=20.73), almost triggering an  enticing 'mechanical' buying opportunity. (It didn't trigger, however, because the downswing missed touching p=20.730 by a hair). Let's watch to see how the futures interact with this pattern, which could prove useful in any event. A decisive downside penetration of p early in the week could be warning of more slippage to p2=19.905, or even d=19.08. _______ UPDATE (Nov 21, 9:50 p.m.): Bottoming action at p was tricky, but there were several ways to have gotten aboard without much pain. As much as 13 cents was risked initially, but the bounce so far has delivered a profit of as much as 42 cents ($2100) per contract. Minimum price objective: 21.50. Please let me know if you hold a position based on my recommendation do I can determine whether to establish a tracking position.

The corrective pattern shown was proffered by a keen-eyed subscriber in the chat room on Friday and should work well to keep us abreast of the trend as the new week begins. It triggered a 'mechanical' short in the first hour that could have been worth as much as $2,800 before the day ended.  The way the downtrend penetrated p=3938 will slightly favor bears, but we'll stay open-minded to the possibility that DaBoyz will blow out the reverse pattern's 'c' high at 4050.75 Sunday night or Monday. If not, try bottom-fishing at D=3827.00 with as tight a stop-loss as you can craft. _______ UPDATE (Nov 22, 6:41 p.m.): The short at 3994.81, stop 4051.00, triggered at 1:45 p.m. EST. Those of us who swear by 'mechanical' trades are obliged to love this one, if only in theory, since who in their right mind would want to initiate a short at the tail end of a Tuesday before Thanksgiving? The implied $11,000 risk on four contracts argues for a bit of 'camo' on the entry. Depending on how things play out between now and tomorrow morning, I may get a chance to explain exactly how this trade might have been done at tomorrow's tutorial session. In the meantime, do NOT short this rabid badger.

Twitter and bitcoin share a key similarity in that their success while it lasted was just hubris. Realize that both were birthed by a virtual medium capable of monetizing turds if there is any discoverable demand for them. Cardi B's megahit single Wet Ass Pussy was proof of this. Twitter proffered turds in the form of members-only censorship that took delight in defecating on the Bill of Rights, particularly the First Amendment. But it took Elon Musk, with unlimited quantities of f**k-you money, to put a number on Twitter: $44 billion. Unfortunately for him, nearly all of it was for 'good will' that appears to have vanished. Nor is he likely to be consoled when it is discovered that the dark secret of Twitter's overwrought ex-employees is that they can start a Twitter of their own with just a few mill, a rackful of servers and a dozen high school dropouts working from home, paid $20/hour to code. Cute Little Bird So what are the notoriously spoiled workers so disgruntled about? Leave it to an apparent millennial sympathizer reporting for The Wall Street Journal to excuse them with a high-minded quote uttered by no one in particular: "Employees said Mr. Musk pushed people to work well over 40 hours a week, but said they didn’t feel there was a compelling vision to justify it." A compelling vision? Yeah, sure.  And exactly what lofty end did they see themselves serving under Jack Dorsey, Orwell's darkest nightmare masquerading as a little blue birdie? Stay tuned to the blogosphere for more dithering on this and other topics of scant interest to folks who live in the real world. What should please the company's make-believe workforce in any event is that Musk set an intergalactic record for overpayment.  If Twitter had changed hands for,