Rick Ackerman

Relative to physical, this junior gold proxy underwhelmed investors last week.  The disappointment was palpable on Friday, when GDXJ opened just off the previous day's high and traded slightly above it, only to fail by 10 cents to surpass a distinctive 'external' peak at 35.26 recorded back in August. Will it make amends by impulsing above the peak on Monday? Any less would be a discouragement, since buyers shouldn't need a running start from lower levels to accomplish this unchallenging feat.

You don't need to be chartist to see that Apple is not about to go quietly into the night. Since the beginning of the year, every worrisome selloff has been answered by a rally of nearly equal breadth. The stock's long list of sponsors includes virtually every giant investment fund on the planet, many of them sovereign funds with no foreseeable need for quick cash.  It is predictable that they will support the stock for as long as possible, presumably until they are overwhelmed by redemptions by individual investors grown mortally fearful of plummeting iPhone sales. That could only occur in the throes of a deep and prolonged global economic downturn, and even then over a months-long period of disillusionment.  Rather than proffer a chart for trading purposes this week, the inset shows a channel that could define the limits of the stock's ups and downs in 2023.  However, odds would tilt toward a breakout above the upper channel line if the current rally, begun from 134 two weeks ago, surpasses September 12's  164.26 high without correcting to the lower line that currently comes in at around $123.

Last week's so-so bounce offered scant respite from the hard selling that has hammered the dollar since late September. Hidden Pivot levels aside, the Dollar Index looked sufficiently winded when last week ended to give us reason to expect more selling down into the void circled in the chart.  It is bracketed by two lows at, respectively, 104.64 and 101.30. Although I doubt the second will be breached by this long-overdue, hard correction, I wouldn't bet the first will hold.

Sellers drove the January contract down through the midpoint support at 82.97 with such force that a further fall to at least D=73.40 appears all but certain. We'll consider getting short 'mechanically' if there's an intervening rally to the green line (x=87.75), or even to p=82.97, but a bottom-fishing opportunity at D seems more likely at present to materialize. If that Hidden Pivot support gets crushed, expect more downside to at least 70.00, or even to 66.70. Both are Hidden Pivot 'D' targets derived from successively higher point 'A's. _______ UPDATE (Nov 28, 10:18 p.m.): Crude's ballistic rebound  from within an inch of the 73.40 downside target drum-rolled above allowed at least one subscriber to report a $1650 profit in the chat room. I see no such lay-up possibilities today, so we'll give it a rest.

Gold has been spitting fire for the last two weeks, so it's doubtful buyers will be deterred by the weighty' external' peak at 1824.60 looming just above. For all the times bullion has disappointed us, reaching a full gallop and then dying, this time the rally looks like the real deal. If and when it pushes above 1824,60, we may have to trade disappointment for tedium, however, since supply is thick above that peak all the way up to 1900. Depending on how quickly buyers chew through it, we could be looking at the long-awaited move that would take gold above $2000 and keep going.

December Silver struggled unsuccessfully all week to punch through a clear Hidden Pivot resistance at 21.905. However, the slight poke above it on Friday, along with the shallow pullback to end the week, suggests buyers are ready to take on an important 'external' peak a 22.80 recorded the first week of June. Just above it lies a 'voodoo' number where the futures would be an opportune short, albeit only for a tightly-stopped scalp-trade.

GDXJ has risen in six of the last sessions, generating a very powerful impulse leg on the daily chart that has yet to correct. If buyers take this vehicle above the circled peak at 35.26 on Monday or Tuesday, it would suggest bulls are about to dominate for the foreseeable future. Presumably, they would have an easy path to 37.81, where the next 'external' peak lies. It was recorded in June and does not look like it will pose much of a problem. _______ UPDATE (Nov 15, 9:50 p.m.):  A failure to surpass the 35.26 peak is not the outcome we should  have expected from a prospective nascent bull-market. Let's see if buyers can improve on this discouraging performance with a few more days of rest or a running start from lower levels.

Friday's frightening plunge to 106.28 came within a hair of triggering a 'voodoo' buy signal, although I can't say I'd have been eager to act on it. It was the worst week for the dollar that even old-timers can recall, but still 'merely' corrective of the astounding bull leg begun in May 2021.  Most immediately, if DXY takes out the low, it will be telegraphing a test of an important structural low at 104.74 recorded back in August. Beyond it lies yet another chasm with a 101.30 bottom.  That would represent a correction of a little more than 50% of the 2021-22 bull.

Last week's rally, powerful as it was, seems unlikely to mark the end of the long and all but relentless dirge in Treasury Bonds.  The uptrend would need to continue to 100.91, surpassing a small but technically significant 'external' peak recorded on October 11, in order to generate an impulse leg on the daily chart.  It would be the first such signal since August, but obviously no guarantee of higher prices. For now, we'll assume that if and when this vehicle relapses, it will be bound for the 86.48 target shown in the chart. _______ UPDATE (Nov 16, 9:55 p.m.): Buyers pushed past a series of external peaks effortlessly, bolstering the case that a major bull move is under way. The next significant obstacle lies at 104.86, where an important high was recorded on Sep 30.