Rick Ackerman

This week's chart would seem to hold little encouragement for the many who have been praying for fuel price to come down. Unfortunately, December Crude appears to be basing for a run-up to as high as 123.34, but at least to 99.52.  The lower target somewhat exceeds the 95.28 target of a smaller pattern we've been using to keep us on the right side of the market. Although I expect a tradeable pullback from there, I doubt it will get very far. I can also see opportunities for shorting successfully on the way up, but going with the trend, as always, will be more difficult. The prospect of fuel prices going even higher as winter encroaches is scary. A relapse in the price of December Crude to beneath the September low at 75.70 looks possible, but sellers would first have to take out a prior low on the weekly chart to make it happen. The nearest lies at 81.30. _______ UPDATE (Nov 9, 6:53 p.ml.): The rally died in an interesting place, just pennies shy of a 'voodoo' number and well short of the key high at 95.55 recorded in late August. This leaves me more open-minded to the possibility of a plunge to as low as 79.89, an event that I could understand more easily than sky-high targets with the global economy sinking into recession-or-worse. Here's the target pattern -- and yes, you can us p=83.82 to anchor a reverse-pattern trigger to bottom-fish there.

Economics, the “dismal science,” has taken quite a beating in the current election cycle. Last week, Joy Reid, MSNBC’s rising-star bimbo, tried to convince viewers that the word “inflation” has no meaning outside the academy and the newsroom. “Most people who would never use that word in their lives are using it now because they’ve been taught it [by the Republicans.]" Oh, really? Perhaps she has a more accurate word to describe the cause of soaring prices for nearly everything since Biden ostensibly took charge? A network headline the same day evinced further confusion on the subject: White House Disputes Recession Fears. Although it’s Biden’s prerogative to try to control the narrative, he risks alienating even Democrats with such outrageous spin when the plain truth is staring us in the face. For the first time in more than a decade, middle-class Americans have been tightening their belts and cutting back on essentials, and 81% of them say they are either somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with the economy. Despite this, the recession debate, such as it is, has been going on for quite some time and continues to this day. You could even argue that Biden appears to be winning on points. Eggheads, pundits and other credentialed dissemblers recruited by the mainstream news media to take a bullet for the team have been dependable recession deniers. And even Chase president Jamie Dimon, who should know better, speaks of recession as a “possibility” in 2023. All of them should harken to the observations of Matt Barnes, a Rick’s Picks subscriber who noticed the U.S. economy slipping into recession early in the second quarter. He would know, since he’s in the shipping-pallet business, as good a mine canary as you could have for discerning a drop-off in economic activity. A Silent Crash

A powerful short squeeze capped the week, daring badly bloodied bears to stand their ground. The rally narrowly exceeded the 3917 target I'd drum-rolled five days earlier, when the futures were trading more than 100 points lower. Some Rick's Picks subscribers evidently doubled down at the close, betting that the best time to get short is when conditions seem most dangerous. Friday's close easily passed that test when the futures came to rest a single point shy of an important external peak at 3925.25 recorded September 21 on the way down. If DaBoyz can levitate this gas-bag above that structural resistance Sunday night or Monday, it would refresh the impulsive energy of the hourly chart and put the December contract on track for a finishing stroke to the 4110.75 target of this pattern. You can short there with a tight stop-loss (and at p2=3959.75), but your trading bias should be aggressively bullish otherwise. ______ UPDATE (Nov 2, 4:43 p.m.): This afternoon's wild swings offered yet another glimpse of the two forces that animate Wall Street: fear and greed. In the context of the larger pattern shown here, the histrionics amounted to just a hiccup, albeit one that would trigger an opportune 'mechanical' buy if the futures plummet to x=3653.00, the green line. The $30k of entry risk this implies demands risk-averse tactics for initiating the trade, so stay tuned to the chat room if you care. _____ UPDATE (Nov 3, 8:37 p.m.): Mr Market was providing few clues concerning whether the futures were about to take out today's low at 3704, presumably bound for the 3653 target flagged above. A breakdown would put them on course for an even lower target at 3631.50 that is shown  in this chart. Note also that before ES weakened at the end of the regular

I've used a conventional ABC pattern to project a 158.43 rally target that looks all but certain to be achieved. Shorting there is another matter, however, since it coincides with a distinctive peak recorded on September 21 that will likely figure prominently in the plans of the algos and EDTP (electronic day-trading platform) whizzes we go up against every day. My preference would be to anchor the 'c' high of a reverse pattern three points above the target and to use a 14-cent trigger interval. This one's for subscribers who are comfortable with rABC trades. _______ UPDATE (Nov 2, 4:54 p.m.): AAPL has fallen hard after failing to reach my 158.43 target, let alone push above a key 'external' peak at 158.74 recorded on September 21. This is a telling sign of weakness to come and a reason to be cautious about buying into rallies. Expect this selloff to continue down in to the mid $130s.

Gold's not-so-heroic struggle over the last month to hold above the 1622.90 target of the pattern shown looks doomed. In the meantime, as we've learned over and over, we shouldn't get too excited when the futures pop for a $30-$40 gain on a given day, since the move is practically guaranteed to be just a tease. So that we don't get lulled into missing a bullish turn, however unexpected, I'll set a screen alert at 1691.40, just above an external peak of middling importance recorded on October 11.

Would a rally like the hypothetical one shown in the chart make you more hopeful? Good. Then let's set an alert at 21.31 to tell us when it is appropriate to turn optimistic, if not exuberant. In the meantime, Silver can be traded bullishly or bearishly as warranted, since there is still plenty of money to be made if it merely trades sideways. My latest gold tout is more downbeat than that, however, so you should be prepared to see Silver dragged lower.

I try to avoid patterns as obvious as this one, but it's the best we've got at the moment. Last week's stab through p=88.29 is bullish, but it doesn't guarantee a finishing stroke to D=95.28. Actually, I'd be inclined to try shorting the futures a dollar or so below D at whatever 'voodoo' number we can scare up at the time. In the meantime, my bias is bullish, predicated on minimum upside to p2=91.79. A pullback to the green line (x=84.80) should be regarded as an attractive opportunity to get long 'mechanically'.  There is $14,000 of theoretical entry risk, so the trade is recommended only to those who know how to reduce it by at least 90% using a 'camouflage' trigger.

This T-Bond proxy has taken an encouraging bounce off last Monday's 91.85 low, but the prospect of the rally getting legs is still shaky. It is concerning that last week's high at 97.90 failed by 49 cents to surpass the lowest of a series of external peaks recorded in recent weeks (see inset).  If TLT gets second wind in the days ahead, it will need to use its running start to clear all of the peaks to look impressive.

The long-term chart shows why the month of weakness we've seen so far may not be enough to correct the moon shot begun in mid-2021. Just a little more selling will bring the Dollar Index down to a Hidden Pivot target at 109.22 that has served as a minimum downside objective for the last two months. However, the downtrend would need to surpass the 'external' low at 107.68 to turn the weekly chart bearishly impulsive. For now, let's see how the 'hidden' support at 109.22 handles whatever pounding occurs there if the dollar relapses. _____ UPDATE (Nov 8, 11:10 a.m.): Price action over the last two days has provided a new ABCD pattern with a 108.75 target. I expect DXY to get there, and also to reverse off a low within a few ticks. Here's the chart. _______UPDATE (Nov 10, 8:51 p.m.): Following a steep dive on the opening bar, DXY got traction at 108.75, but this 'hidden' support' failed and it plunged anew to 107.71.  This suggests more weakness ahead, but a push above 109.09 to end the week would earn dollar bulls a reprieve.