Crude futures can be pretty vicious, but if this were nearly any other vehicle, I'd suggest bottom-fishing D=67.74 with a very tight stop-loss and a truck to hold it all. Given the ease with which sellers crushed the midpoint Hidden Pivot at 75.54, the downtrend is nearly 100% certain to achieve the target. But it's just as likely to put in a tradeable bottom very near there. However, the pattern, although quite serviceable for most other vehicles (other than the p.o.s. grains) is certain to be 'read' by other experienced traders. That means that bids at D are going to get stopped out a few times on the lesser charts before the inevitable reversal takes flight. We are more than up to the challenge, but be prepared to do some work. _____ UPDATE (Dec 12, 10:19 p.m.): Weeks can go by without anyone mentioning crude in the chat room. Is there any interest? Are any of you trading it? _______ UPDATE (Dec 13, 10:52 p.m.): There appears to be more interest in trading the micro-contract, so I will swap it for the full-size contract starting Sunday. I remain skeptical that this rally will be more than a flash-in-the-pan.
The dollar's weak bounce from p=104.09 implies that still lower prices are likely. Considering that the midpoint pivot lies just beneath a key low at 104.64 recorded back in August, the rally should have been stronger, since many bulls would have been stopped out when the breakdown occurred. We'll monitor the expected breach of the 104.09 Hidden Pivot, since, if it gets crushed, that would portend more slippage to as low as D=100.18. That would represent a still-moderate 12% correction from September's 114.78 high -- not too bad considering the steepness of the rally that saw the Dollar Index rise from 89.21 to 114.78 between early 2021 and October 2022.
The February Comex contract ended the week with an effortless upswing that fell a tad shy of the pink line, a p2 secondary Hidden Pivot at 1827.00. Assuming the confidence of buyers hasn't diminished over the weekend, we should expect them to reach the 1858.20 D target by no later than midweek. A pullback in the meantime to the red line (p=1795.90) would trigger a 'mechanical' buy, stop 1775.10, that could be traded using an impulsive 'camouflage' trigger on the 5-minute chart. ______ UPDATE (Dec 5, 4:23 p.m.): The gratuitous viciousness of today's selloff is telling us that too many were too bullish when the day began. The 'mechanical' trade would be $6400 in the red if done conventionally (not recommended), although the position has so far avoided getting stopped out by a heart-stopping $3. A less risky 'mechanical' buy would trigger at the green line (x=1764.70), but I would suggest this only for subscribers with the Hidden Pivot chops to cut the risk down to no more than $1,200 or so (on four contracts).
The March contract remains on-track for a run-up to at least 24.32, the Hidden Pivot target shown in the chart. Although the rally triggered a conventional buy signal on November 23, it has been too steep to afford us a 'mechanical' entry opportunity on the hourly chart. This will always possible if we zoom down to charts of lesser degree when trades come into focus on the larger charts. This occurred on Friday with the dip to the red line. Getting aboard in this way takes a little work, but I am always willing to vet subscribers' timely ideas when I'm in the chat room. The D target here is capable of reversing the rally precisely and can therefore be shorted, provided you know how to hold the entry risk down to no more than 3-4 cents per contract. ______ UPDATE (Dec 5, 4:27 p.m.): March Silver's still-nominally-profitable but feeble bounce from a 'voodoo' number today suggests it has lower to go. If so, a hit at 21.67 would trigger a 'mechanical' buy, stop 20.78. Obviously, with $18,000 of theoretical entry risk on four contracts, this one's only for ace Pivoteers who have attended at least 3-4 Wednesday tutorial sessions.
The rally from late September's 25.80 bottom has provided no handholds for a 'mechanical' buy, at least not on the daily chart, although opportunities will continue to surface from time to time on the intraday charts. The minimum upside projection is 41.17, the D target of the pattern shown, and getting there should be considered a done deal once buyers have dealt with resistance at the secondary Hidden Pivot , p2=37.33. We don't often initiate 'mechanical' buys at the red line, but it would be warranted in this case, given the unlikelihood of a two-level pullback to the green line.
We're using an ambitious 4211.75 rally target (slightly corrected from an earlier 4214.00) as a lodestar to ensure that we won't be fooled by the inevitable fright-mask swoons. It is a high-probability price objective for this bear rally, and the pattern from which it is derived can be used to trade the futures aggressively and confidently. The chart in the thumbnail inset shows a more immediate target at 4127.50 that is also all but certain to be reached, given the way buyers smashed through the p resistance on the first attempt. The rally has been too steep to generate any 'mechanical' buys at the green line -- only a somewhat riskier pullback to the red line on November 17 that would have required nimble 'camouflage' to get aboard. _______ UPDATE (Dec 5, 4:46 p.m.): The futures plummeted precisely to the green line, triggering a 'mechanical' buy that had been noted by a chat room denizen. The exact-to-the-tick bottom at x=3987.25 was either a coincidence or the result of other traders glomming onto my proprietary 'mechanical' set-ups and doing the trades, albeit incorrectly. Entry at the green line could have produced a profit of nearly $4000 so far, but as I implied in a chat room post, I am waiting myself to do the trade 12 points lower at a voodoo number, 3975. I also gave this as my minimum downside objective, although the futures were in a nasty short squeeze at the final bell that has put them 30 points above my buying level. _______ UPDATE Dec 6, 8:06 p.m.): We sidestepped a treacherous 'buy' signal to concentrate on this so-so-bearish pattern. It produced a profitable turn at a 3927 'voodoo number' flagged in the chat room (see my post at 13:07), but the bounce was in danger of running out
The bullish pattern shown, which projects an 8% rally to 159.36 over the near term, lacks only a fist-pump through the midpoint pivot at 149.86 to make the finishing stroke n odds-on bet. AAPL's timidity is understandable, since the stock hasn't been strong enough to lead the broad averages higher when they are tired. That's because sales of pricey iPhones are facing simultaneous recessions in China, Europe and the U.S. Even so, as my quite bullish outlook for the S&Ps implies, AAPL is headed higher come hell or high water. The pattern shown looks promising for risk-averse trading on the way up, particularly on a pullback to the green line from our sweet spot just above 152. ______ UPDATE (Dec 5, 4:51 p.m.): AAPL did in fact thrust above 149.86, albeit only fleetingly in a move criminally engineered by the Ivy-educated thugs who control the stock. The equally sharp pullback has so far missed touching the green line by 26 cents, but when this happens, the stock would become a 'mechanical' buy, stop 140.35. _______ UPDATE (Dec 6, 8:14 p.m.): The 'mechanical' trade triggered, then proceeded to go underwater for the rest of the session. The pattern was a good one to gamble on, but if it fails to make money, I'd have to conclude the stock is in more trouble than I'd imagined. It's going to be increasingly challenging for its handlers to distribute to suckers as recession begins to tighten on iPhone sales around the world.
The modest reverse pattern shown (see inset) gives January Crude an easy path to at least 85.28, a Hidden Pivot resistance that looks obscure enough to short with a very tight stop-loss. An easier opportunity would come on a pullback to the green line (x=76.52), where you could bottom-fish with a tightly constructed 'reverse' pattern. The trade is likely to work best if the pullback is sharp and swift. It would require a stop-loss at 73.59, just beneath the pattern's point C low. I have sketched the retracement with crude pulling back beneath the green line to remind you that it is neither a support nor a resistance, nor a target, nor even a Hidden Pivot (which will always be a p or D level). ________ UPDATE (Dec 6, 8:20): See my 13;22 post and follow-ups in the chat room for a detailed explanation of an on-demand trade that worked nicely in almost-real time. Here's the chart.
The bull trend begun in late October showed signs of getting legs when it closed above the 104.42 D target of the reverse pattern shown. There are no immediate external peaks nearby that we could use to gauge the rally's strength, but we'll continue to monitor its temperature nonetheless using other benchmarks such as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level that would equate to a price of 109.67. An easy move through it would signify that buying power has not abated as the rally has progressed. ______ UPDATE (Dec 8, 9:27 p.m.): TLT has pulled back only slightly after topping on Wednesday a penny above the 109.67 Fibo line we were using as a minimum upside objective. It looks like it wants to run higher, but let's wait and see.
The bearish pattern shown in the inset is straightforward in suggesting that Bertie will fall to at least 11,484 before bulls have a chance to turn it around. The precise series of bounces from p suggest the target can be bottom-fished with a tight stop-loss and good odds of producing a quick profit with relatively little risk. In the meantime, a rally to the green line (x=21,774) should be used to get short. The implied entry risk of a little more than $3,400 would warrant a 'camo' set-up to limit theoretical exposure to perhaps $200-$300. _______ UPDATE Dec 13, 10:16): Well, bulls have turned this hoax around, all right, using the increasingly lurid story about the epic bitcoin fraud perpetrated by Sam Bankman-Fried to squeeze shorts. How contrarian! How perverse!. It'll be interesting to see where the whales trapped in this vehicle begin to unload it.
