Rick Ackerman

The pattern we've been using for several weeks, with a still unmet 109.09 downside target, is clear and compelling, implying that this sharp bounce from well north of it is not destined for greatness. Even so, we'll give the rally the benefit of the doubt, especially if it should continue on up to 116.75, where a distinctive 'external' peak made two weeks ago on the way down cries out to be tested. Please note that a print at p=114.89 would trigger a so-so 'mechanical' short, stop 116.82, and that if the trde were to get stopped out, TLT would have an even-odds chance of breaking out above C=120.69 of the bearish pattern. _______ UPDATE (Sep 1, 11:10 p.m. EDT): TLT has bounced tentatively from within a hair of the 109.09 target, so there's a good chance the rally could get legs. _______ UPDATE (Sep 7, 12:20 a.m.): The way sellers have crushed a 109.09 'hidden' support with barely a bounce suggests TLT is headed significantly lower. A test of 100 seems almost too obvious to consider, but I'll have a closer look as soon as I am able to access Tradestation.

Last week's rally could provide a crucial test for my bearish outlook, since it triggered an attractive 'mechanical' short at the green line after bouncing from a low in the pattern's sweet spot.  The theoretical position was slightly profitable at the bell, but we are paper trading it in any event because the entry risk is about $22,000 on four contracts.  To qualify the word 'attractive', it implies that a short from 94.24 has a better than 50% chance of producing a profit by falling to p=88.75, at least, before popping above C=99.75 to stop out the position. ________ UPDATE (Aug 31, 11:50 p.m.): So far so good. The futures produced a $22,000 profit on the paper trade with today's dive to p=88.75. Assuming half the position has been covered, let's shoot for p2= 83.25  on the third of four contracts shorted. Note the D target at 77.75, which, as noted here earlier, would imply pump prices below $3 gallon. _______ UPDATE (Sep 1, 11:24 p.m.): Use a stop-loss at 91.43 for the two contracts that remain. This should be worked o-c-o with an order to cover one contracts at p2=83.25. _______ UPDATE (Sep 7, 10:16 p.m.): The trade has been a monster, producing one of the biggest gains ever for an explictly actionable tout.  The trend forecast itself went sharply against the crowd, with an extremely bearish forecast at a time when most other seers were expecting a run-up to above $100. That said, there has been almost no discussion of the trade, or even of crude oil, in the tradng room, so NYMEX futures will be eliminated from the core list of touts. However, I will still provide coverage of this vehicle and energy proxies on-demand in the trading room. 

[The Morning Line commentary will resume on Sunday, September 17, to allow your editor a holiday break.  In the interim I will continue to update 'touts' and to post in the Rick's Picks trading room as usual. RA]    The way stocks plummeted on Friday, one could almost believe that Fed blatherer-in-chief Jerome Powell made it happen.  We know better; for in fact, the selloff was caused by mysterious cyclical forces that were set in motion billions of years before Powell was born. Go ahead and try to prove the negative if you want, but that's how it works. Markets create the news, not the other way around.  Count on Rick's Picks to ignore the headlines and tell it like it is, always disrespecting Fed quackery.  The only thing the charlatans who run the central bank have caused to happen since they willed themsleves into existence nearly 110 years ago is the destruction of the dollar.   Whatever you think about the Fed, a far more important concern is whether Friday's thousand-point avalanche in the Dow ended what has so far been a tedious, garden-variety bear-market rally. Athough it would seem so, the correct answer is no, it didn't.  How do we know this?  For starters, Jim Cramer supposedly said so on his show -- said, that is, that the June low will stand, presumably till the end of time. He is certain to be wrong about this eventually, but in the meantime, technical signs say higher prices are indeed coming. The bear rally technically has further to go because Friday's plunge followed on the heels of a 15% rally that had exceeded several important peaks on the daily chart. The implication is  that the current selloff is merely corrective in the context of a bigger bear rally yet to

Although sellers finally hit, and then pulped, the recalcitrant 4245 target, I've used a visually obvious and conservative 'reverse' pattern (inset) to project at least moderate additional downside over the near term to D=4129.26. The pattern looks enticing for 'mechanical' shorting on the way down, but p2=4178.81 would be a worthwhile spot nonetheless to attempt scalping what could prove to be a fleetingly tradeable low. If the HP levels give way easily, however, suggesting the correction will be nastier than some might expect, we'll shift our sights to this larger rABC, where D=3775.50.  That would be a major breakdown, but you still shouldn't pass up a chance to play for a bounce, even if 'against the box' with options, at p=4051.50. That well-hidden support would become my minimum downside projection if 4129.26 gives way easily. ______ UPDATE (Aug 22, 8:54 p.m.): The futures plunged to within an ansgstrom of the 4129.26 target I'd flagged as my minimum.  What's next? Reply hazy, try again later. _______ UPDATE (Aug 24, 6:56 p.m.): Here's a modest rally target at 4189.25 you can use for now. Notice how Mr Market cheated 'mechanical' bids at the green line out of an easy winner. Don't expect more kindness if the trade sets up a second time. ______ UPDATE (Aug 25, 11:02):  ES is moving with high predictability, having topped in the dead of night just beneath my 4189.25 target.  Then, as expected of Mr Market, following a sharp pullback from the 'mechanical'-trade sweet spot, ES trampolined from a few points above x to deny easy entry for a second time.  It doesn't know we are there, it just comes naturally.

DaBoyz must have meant to perform the same sleazy trick they do two or three times a week, particularly on Fridays, letting AAPL fall on the opening to exhaust supply for a planned short squeeze. However, they evidently misjudged sellers' eagerness and wound up creating a quite robust impulse leg that surpassed no fewer than four prior lows, two of them 'external'. This implies the decline will continue to at least D=169.77 or perhaps lower for a more significant correction. AAPL lost Friday's mild tug of war with indexes that had wanted to fall harder, but now they can and probably will.  The pattern looks ripe for 'mechanical' shorting, most favorably on a bounce to the green line, however unlikely. either Sunday night or in the early going on Monday.

The dollar's feisty move last week past p=107.46 has all but guaranteed more upside to the D target at 110.27 over the next 5-7 days.  Don't miss an opportunity to get long 'mechanically' on an unexpected swoon to x=106.06.  The rally has also shortened the odds of a further leap to the 113.16 target of this compelling, far larger pattern on the weekly chart, one you've seen before. Although I've expected the bull market to test highs near 120 for many years, a substantial correction from 113.16 seems likely first. ______ UPDATE (Sep 8, 10:45 p.m.): DXY is correcting hard after topping a half-point above the 110.27 Hidden Pivot target noted in the original tout. Now let's see if the ''D' retracement target at 108.78 holds. It looks certain to be reached.

There is too much angst in the weekly chart, including the May/June destruction of big D=116.06, to offer much hope that the long-dated bond's two-year agony is about to end. For now, I will allow but two bullish possibilities: 1) a bounce from the 109.07 'd' target of this reverse pattern. It's more than a slim reed, however, and therefore worth bottom-fishing, but don't count too heavily on a major reversal; and then there is below it 2) a 'voodoo' number at 106.54 that could could also provide a tradeable bounce off a 'reverse' pattern with a 'c' low anchored at that price.

September Crude's  balky descent is still targeted most immediately on D=78.73, which if achieved would probably correspond to pump prices below $3 gallon. The felicity of this might not last, given that the largest commodity market on earth has become just another carny crap shoot made so opaque by refiners and cartels that even the Houston Chronicle's intrepid energy reporters can't quite explain how the rip-off works. The pattern is certainly tradeable even if the daily-chart version of it has yet to yield a 'mechanical' short. Exploiting it profitably will take some 'camouflage' and elbow grease -- on your brain, that is --  provided you've got the chops to rein in entry risk to no more than around $180 per contract.  _______ UPDATE (Aug 23, 6:30 p.m.): The October contract appears headed toward a 'voodoo' level at around 97.50 whence a potentially tradeable turn could come. This would NOT be an actual reversal point, just a place to anchor an rABC set-up. 

I've scaled back my pattern and rally target to reflect gold's disppointing performance over the last two weeks, The impulse leg was a dubious qualifier to begin with, and the follow-through leg couldn't even reach p2=1841.30, let alone re-energize itself with a push above an 'external' peak. That said, the pattern could still generate a so-so 'mechanical' buy at x=1744.60 for a one-level ride to p=1792.90. If you elect the trade, just be sure to use a 'camouflage' set-up on a small-degree chart to cut the nearly $10,000 of implied entry risk on four contratcs down to more like $800. The 1889.70 target is a longshot at this point, never mind the 1985.40 target of the larger 'reverse' pattern shown here earlier.