Rick Ackerman

Odds are shortening that an important top is in. Rates on the Ten Year Note have come down steeply since peaking on June 14 at 3.48%. That left a 3.56% target I'd drum-rolled unfulfilled, but we won't give up on it, at least not yet, since a a pullback to the green line (2.92%) would trigger an enticing 'mechanical' buy in theory. My trading bias was slightly bullish when the week ended, but a rally would have to hit 33.18, exceeding June 21's 'external' peak by a tick, to become interesting. ______ UPDATE (Jul 1, 6:15 p.m.): Rates have receded from their June 14 peak of 3.48%, adding weight to possibility that an important high has been seen. The downtrend would become impulsive on the daily chart with a move below  May 25's 2.71% low.

The bear rally has come from a promising place just a hair above the 128.24 midpoint Hidden Pivot support of the pattern shown. The fact that the last dive did not quite reach its target somewhat shortens the odds that the bounce will take out C=151.74 before it sputters out. Regardless, we should plan on getting short near there, possibly with a 'counterintuitive' set-up on the five-minute chart, since it looks like potentially juicy discomfort-zone play. _______ UPDATE (Jun 29, 6:46 p.m.): The 'mechanical' short that AAPL tripped Monday at x=143.27 looks pretty juicy, but I'll suggest using this intelligence to observe rather than trade. Were this promising set-up to be stopped out by a move above C=151.74, it would suggest DaBoyz have regained control of the FAANGs and are ready to run them up shorts' old wazoo. We needn't wait for the rally to rack up a $15 gain to assess the odds, since lesser abc patterns toward the right edge of the chart will telegraph incipient strength. FYI, the downside target of the bigger pattern, still very bearish, is 117.87. 

Gold remains a study in disappointment and tedium. We've focused on a too-obvious pattern with a bearish target at 1756.90, and even shorted it on paper at 1851.20,  but with no great expectation of the futures getting there. Nor are they likely to achieve the very bullish, 2082 target of a much larger pattern any time soon. If you'd prefer to trade this vehicle nonetheless, try bottom-fishing in the range 1787-1792 with a 'camouflage' set-up using a chart of five-minute degree or less. _______ UPDATE (Jul 1, 9:27 a.m.): The futures are in a presumably meaningless bounce from 1783.40. That's below my bottom-fishing range, which was tied to a p2 'secondary pivot' at 1788.30.  The $6 overshoot is sufficient for us to presume that the next leg down, if and when it comes., will be an even-odds bet to reach the worst-case, 1756.90 target. Ray-rah-sis-boom-bah, Gold! You go, girl!

The futures tripped a promising 'mechanical' short on June 15 at 21.83, but we are just spectators, since no subscribers expressed an interest in the trade, let alone reported taking a position. The 19.64 target is valid and remains the worst-case scenario for the coming week, but it is no more likely to be reached than a comparable one in gold at 1756.90. You can try bottom-fishing at p2=20.37, which sits 5 points beneath May 13's important low. That would make it a 'discomfort zone' trade, and it can be snagged using a 'mechanical' setup on a lesser chart. ______ UPDATE (Jul 1, 9:38 p.m.): Shifting to the September contract, this morning's breach of an important hidden support implies more downside to at least D=18.96 (daily, A= 26.65 on 4/18; B=22.21 on 5/2). If that Hidden Pivot, too, is splattered, we would need to move A-B down to the next to produced a new target at 18.06, a p2 'secondary pivot'.

Bertie has spent the last two weeks trying to build a bottom at the 19,148 'secondary pivot' shown in the chart. However, the earlier, decisive breach of the 23,550 midpoint Hidden Pivot support suggests the effort will fail and that this bitcoin proxy is headed down to at least 14,746, the pattern's 'D' target. Presumably, that is where it will build a base sufficient to support a short squeeze of perhaps $8,000 or more. For now, though, it should be traded with a bullish bias. ______ UPDATE (Jun 29, 1:47 p.m. EDT): DaBoyz are propping up bitcoin to offload as much of it as they can at $20,000.  They won't be able to pursue this project indefinitely or with much success, since there are so many losers trapped at higher prices.  A stock market rally could bail them out, at least for a short while, but that ain't happenin', at least not today.  The chart shows an interim target at 18,041 to keep in mind as Bertie makes its way down to bigger-picture targets noted here earlier at, respectively, 14,746 and 9,507. _______ UPDATE (Jul 5, 11:59 p.m.): Last  week's low at 18,635 came within 1.2% of the 18,041 target flagged above. Bertie has become a pathetic follower of market  trends, a big change from the days when it led and reflected speculative fever. It has become too boring to track and there is zero interest in the chat room, but I am leaving it on the list because, well, because. ______ UPDATE (Jul 7, 6:20 p.m.): Because bitcoin was demoted from speculative investment to scandal in the wake of its collapse since last November from $69k to sub-$20k, the fact that it rallied more than $1000 today suggests there is real power behind the stock market's short squeeze. We'll pay close

The Dollar Index is working on a red-line 'mechanical' buy that was profitable the day after it triggered on June 16. The trade, which is predicated on a 106.49 rally target, is still in the black, but my hunch is that a better entry opportunity awaits when this vehicle falls to the green line, 102.80. In the meantime, although we hold no position officially, we can continue to monitor DXY closely for signs of presumably moderate weakness.

The chart above is intended to take some of the guesswork out of determining how high this presumably doomed stock-market rally is likely to go. Not very, would be my guess. I say the rally is doomed for a few reasons, none of which has anything to do with a U.S. recession that began months ago, or a real estate collapse that is still in the anecdotal stage but quite real and menacing nonetheless. My assessment is based purely on certain subtle technical signs evident in the chart. First is the S&Ps' breach of a 3656  'external' low recorded back in February. The overshoot was just 17 points, or 0.46%, but that was sufficient to generate a strong impulse leg of weekly-chart degree. What it implies is that any rally off the June 17 low will turn out to have been corrective -- or to use a more descriptive word, distributive. Since we 'know' the rally is just a bear squeeze, predicting where it is likely to apex is possible. I have used a 'reverse-pattern' feature of the Hidden Pivot Method to calculate prospective rally targets at, respectively, 3966 and 4028. If the S&P mini-futures were to exceed the first by more than 5 or so points intraday, that would imply more upside to the second. Both are bound to show stopping power sufficient to be short-able, and that is what I would suggest to Rick's Picks subscribers. Sidestepping a Possible Stampede This scenario is by no means chiseled in stone, and I would be inclined to give the rally wide berth if it impales the higher number the first time it is touched. That would suggest that a bear rally worthy of the name is under way. If so, it could be expected to continue to whatever height is

The chart is intended to simplify your trading decisions and mitigate the anxiety that has stalked the chat room lately. Is this the big short squeeze we've all known was coming?  I doubt it. But why should it matter?  It's all just impulse legs, and the one shown has generated 'mechanical' levels that can be traded or used confidently to assess the strength and sticking power of the rally. For starters, if buyers impale the 3804.00 midpoint (p) over the next day or two, and especially if they close ES above p, you can bet that it's going to reach D=3969.00. Any one-level pullback enroute will be tradeable 'mechanically' once p has been exceeded, but check in the chat room if you're uncertain about how to do this, since many have mastered the trick. It will a require 'camouflage' set-up on the very lesser charts, since conventional entry risk would be around $2500 per contract. ______ UPDATE (June 22, 9:15 p.m.): The rally reached p=3804.00, overshooting it by a zillionth of an inch. This confirms that the pattern will work for any purpose we choose, whether forecasting, trading 'mechanicals' or shorting at D. ______ UPDATE (Jun 24, 12:25 a.m.): After spending two days ineffectually head-butting p, DaBoyz had to cheat to push past it under the cover of darkness. This put the futures on a certain path to at least 3886.50, the secondary (p2) pivot.

Bears turned toothless on Friday, but neither that nor a voodoo forecast in the chat room of a big rally could overcome the crushing weight of the pattern shown. It projects a further fall of 180 points, to 3502.50, before this minor phase of the bear market begun on January 4 has run its course. Bulls might be tempted to imagine the worst is over if the big rally actually occurs and reaches the green line (4029), but that would merely trigger an appealing 'mechanical' short predicated on a relapse to 3502. That target still looks very likely to be achieved, given the way sellers vaporized the 3853 midpoint Hidden Pivot support the first time they encountered it on the way down, on June 14.