Rick Ackerman

The chart shown in the inset employs the same coordinates I've used in June Gold to produce a picture not quite as bullish but still promising.  Gold has already poked above its red-line 'midpoint' Hidden Pivot, but silver has merely exceeded the green line (x) to signal a rally to at least p=30.76 theoretically. The thing to realize. however, is that the stab higher three weeks ago surpassed an 'external' peak, generating an impulse leg of weekly-chart degree that will not be easily reversed. That would require a drop below C=21.41 of the pattern -- possible but seemingly unlikely at this point. _______ UPDATE (Apr 11, 8:30 a.m. EDT): May Silver has finally launched toward the 25.83 midpoint pivot of the pattern shown here.  It will serve as a minimum upside projection for the next day or two. As always, an easy move through this 'hidden' resistance would portend more upside to the next Hidden Pivot level, in this case the 'secondary' pivot at 26.73. ______ UPDATE (Apr 12, 4:52 p.m.): The rally topped out a penny above the 25.83 Hidden Pivot we were using as a minimum upside projection. No one mentioned this in the chat room, of course, but I lack the energy to admonish or cheerlead. Score it as yet one more tree that fell silently in the forest.

The rally is almost certainly corrective and would trigger an enticing 'mechanical short even if it were to soar to the green line (x=145.26).  More likely is that the downtrend will resume well before then and fall to at least p2=125.83, the minimum downside target we've been using for the last several weeks. Further weakness to D=116.06 is unpredictable as yet, since the initial encounter with midpoint support at 135.59 on the way did not feature its impalement. _______ UPDATE (Apr 6. 11:53 p.m.): This week's mini-crash has brought TLT down to within four-tenths of a percentage point of the 125.83 Hidden Pivot we've been using as a minimum downside target. If this number fails to produce a strong bounce, that will shorten the odds of further slippage to D=116.06.

Crude is correcting a big, bullish pattern shown here last week with the potential to get it to 130.13. It is also on a weak 'mechanical' buy signal at the moment from 101.68, with a stop-loss at 92.19. I did not recommend the trade, since it would be 'sloppy seconds' in relation to an earlier buy signal that narrowly failed to produce a juicy winner. Where to next?  Use the pattern shown in the inset to gauge trend strength enroute to a presumptive downside target at 93.07. The pattern looks gnarly enough to be useful for tightly stopped bottom-fishing, or even to 'mechanically' short a rally to x=104.83. _____ UPDATE (Apr 4, 10:21 p.m.): The short recommended above has triggered this evening, at least in theory, but because no one mentioned it in the chat room, I have not provided tracking guidance. Since theoretical entry risk was around $3,900 per contract, the trade demanded a 'camo' strategy that would pare that down to around $300-$400..

Bertie stalled last week at the 47,647 midpoint resistance of a pattern associated with a rally target at 62,317. It would take a two-bar close above 'p' to fully activate the target, or alternatively a decisive stab past it.  The pattern has yet to trigger any 'mechanical' buy signals of weekly-chart degree, but the powerful impulse leg by itself is capable of producing some reliable winners for us should a buying opportunity at the green line arise.

The institutional chimps who went all-in on AAPL 13 year ago can scarcely conceal their giddiness at the ease with which short-covering has been propelling the most bloated-pig-of-a-stock in history steeply higher. Last week they pushed AAPL decisively past p=171.94 in the chart shown, significantly shortening the odds that the squeeze will ultimately produce a new all-time high at 193.78. This is a more bullish picture than the one I've proffered for the E-Mini S&Ps, but it is AAPL we should watch, since it is the stock singularly responsible for making portfolio managers look like geniuses and for buttering their bread. A swoon to the green line, however unlikely, should not be regarded as the resumption of a bear market presumed by many to have begun on January 4, but as a fabulous buying opportunity. _______ UPDATE (Mar 29, 11:17 p.m.): The secondary (p2) pivot at 182.86 shown in the chart (inset) can be used as a minimum rally projection for now. It can also be used to get short with a tight 'camouflage' set-up. _______ UPDATE (Mar 31, 6:27): Today's selloff was another fake. DaBoyz will pull their bids for a day or two, then reload at lower levels.  The only thing to notice is that Wednesday's stab higher blew past p2=176.65 and two daunting 'external' peaks made, respectively, at 176.65 (2/9) and 177.18  (1/12). That is quite bullish.

Expect the futures to make a short-able top at either of the two Hidden Pivot targets shown. They lie, respectively, at 4584.25 and 4645.25, differing only with respect to their point 'A' lows. Pivoteers can attempt to get short at one target or the other, or both, using a reverse pattern with a tight a-b. The higher of these two numbers looks likely to yield better odds. To be sure, it will also trip the alarm of bears who have viewed the nasty short squeeze begun on March 15 as just a bear rally. Even at 4645.25, it might still prove to be that, but we can exploit this possibility only with risk as tightly controlled as the Hidden Pivot Method allows.

Gold has rewarded patient bulls with an occasional kick in the teeth and an uptrend that can suddenly  turn into a Bataan march for months on end. The good news is that it has done even worse by bears, demonstrating repeatedly that, try as they may, they cannot suppress strong, persistent demand from all corners of the world in these all-too-interesting times. At present, the April contract is making its way toward a  seemingly inevitable rendezvous with the 1988.50 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown in the chart. We'll know whether buyers are capable of hitting D=2081.80 once we've seen how they fare on first contact with the midpoint resistance.  Trade with a bullish bias for now, but only with risk tightly controlled using entry set-ups on the lesser charts (a.k.a. 'camouflage'). ______ UPDATE (Mar 28, 5:22 p.m.): The rally turned to crud well shy of 1988.50 (see above), so the yellow flag is out. My hunch is that the usual scumwads from the bullion banking world  will stop out C=1895.20 before they cease their gratuitous pounding of gold. _______ UPDATE (Mar 29, 11:30 p.m.): Although the rally came from a 'too-obvious' place, it evidently caught enough traders by surprise to keep on going. This pattern, which produced a 'mechanical' winner on the pullback to the green line, can tell us if the uptrend will continue if D=1927.70 is decisively breached. It will also work for for an rABC short, using an extremely tight a-b segment. _______ UPDATE (Mar 30, 10:09); Yo-te-ho! The futures rallied overnight, topping at exactly 1927.80 (2:25 a.m.), a single tick above the Hidden Pivot target I'd furnished for your trading guidance; then they relapsed to 1916.30 over the next three hours. A short with as tight a stop-loss as two ticks would have survived, and the trade could have

May Silver continues to plod higher, bound for the 28.12 target shown. We take nothing for granted in this vehicle, however, and so the futures will need to blow past p=26.34 with brio before we can confidently infer that more upside to 'D' is a done deal. We will also need to be conservative when boarding at the lows of the inevitable swoons, using 'camouflage' set-ups that meet all of our requirements. Last week we would have been done out of such an opportunity when the futures fell on Friday to the green line without having touched p=26.33. We'll wait for better set-ups or do nothing at all. ______ UPDATE (Mar 29, 11:38 p.m.): Today's wicked whipsaw generated a new point 'C' low to shape the pattern shown here. It'll work for trading and forecasting, but 'mechanical' entries with huge entry risk will require some small-pattern tricks to get aboard. Stay tuned to the chat room if you care. 

We've got targets as high as 158, but I've switched to a more cautious view with one at 130.13 because crude struggled so hard last week to break free of p=111.17's gravity. Note that I have shifted to the May contract and that it is somewhat more bullish than the April one that we've been using. A swoon to the green line could be bought 'mechanically', stop 92.19, but only if you know how to set up the trade on the very lesser charts to pare the implied entry risk of nearly $40,000 on four contracts down to something closer to $1,000. There doesn't seem to be much interest in this vehicle in the chat room, but I will continue to track it nonetheless, and if I'm in the room, I'll gladly provide real time guidance for any subscriber with a potentially tradeable idea. _______ UPDATE (Mar 29, 11:45 p.m.): The 'mechanical' trade triggered and is currently in-the-black. No one mentioned it in the chat room, confirming my remark above about there being little interest in this vehicle. Oh well. Here's the chart.