Rick Ackerman

The corrective pattern shown may be too obvious to provide precise hooks for low-risk shorting and/or bottom-fishing, but it is not apt to fail us predictively. To that end, we should continue to monitor price action at p=135.59 closely. So far, the stall at this Hidden Pivot support would seem to suggest that bulls still hold an edge. However, a reversal to the downside, if steep enough, could signal a further retracement to as low as the 'd' target at 116.06.  For now, and strictly speaking, a rally to the green line (x=145.36) would generate an appealing 'mechanical' short. _______ UPDATE (Mar 14, 10:30 p.m.): Sellers overwhelmed the midpoint support at 135.59, implying they will bludgeon this vehicle down to at least p2=125.83. 

Bertie's soporific action points toward D=47,181 within a pattern that has already generated a nice, $3,000+ 'mechanical' winner. It came via a buy at the green line (x=37,554) a week ago, but it is not likely to be so easy if there is a second opportunity. Interim ups and downs will always be tradeable, but I have somewhat reduced chat-room guidance for this vehicle because subscriber interest in trading bitcoin appears to have dropped off. Nevertheless, if you nudge me with an idea you'd like vetted, I'll be happy to help. _______ UPDATE (Mar 28, 5:43 p.m.): Bertie took forever to achieve my 47,181 objective, but today's decisive overshoot has activated a bigger, 'reverse pattern' with a new target at 62,317.  Let's see how much resistance p=47,647 poses to short-covering, the main source of buying power in this vehicle. Since few know about the pattern, and even fewer how to use it, you can rely on it whatever your purpose. I'll signal if the big-picture 'mechanical' buy triggers at 40,312, since, although it would be a no-brainer, the more than $7,000 of theoretical initial risk would require a 'camo' entry strategy.

Considering the size of the crude-oil market and its geopolitical importance, the rally begun two years from $6.50/bbl amidst fears of a Covid-caused Depression ranks as one of the most spectacular and consequential in history. Consumers are coping at the moment with speculative excesses brought on by the curtailment of Russian petrofuels, and by disruptions, real or feared, in the global distribution network for energy. Pump prices have doubled since the pandemic began, piling crushing weight on a U.S. economy that was already close to buckling from steep increases in the cost of nearly everything. How much higher can prices go? The headlines suggest there is no relief in sight. But an end to the cost spiral is surely coming, since the parabolic rallies in many commodities, particularly oil, grains and metals, are too steep to sustain. When the wilding spree ends and prices fall as precipitously as they have risen, the result will be a deflationary bust that will send the global economy into deepest recession or even Depression.  Oil cannot but lead the way down, since its collapse will be exacerbated by the vast swath of the energy patch that has been hocked to financiers in order to propagate growth in derivatives markets that are much larger, even, than the oil sector.  I referred to this effect as a 'double whammy' in my last commentary, which was titled Inflation's Last Fling. Here's the Trade... So where might crude's rally reverse, popping an asset bubble that has been building for more more than three decades? The chart above makes a persuasive case for a bull-market top at $141. That would represent an 8% gain over this month's so-far peak at 130.50, and a 33% gain over the current $106.  The May contract shown may need to correct for a

Last week's high fell almost precisely at the 'D' target of a middling rABC pattern, presumably maxing out the upside for the moment, and that is why we can use the bearish pattern shown to get a handle on this vehicle in the week ahead despite its obviousness and plain-vanillaness. Most immediately, that would imply bottom-fishing at p=4227.38 as a tightly stopped scalp-trade, and subsequently shorting at the green line (x), assuming it's hit via the right kind of bounce. For now, use 4227.38 as a minimum downside target for the near term. _______ UPDATE (Mar 7, 9:49 a.m. EST): It is unusual and mildly disconcerting for a perfectly located, 4227.38 midpoint support to have failed to gift us with a bottom-fishing trade. The futures fell to within an inch of the trigger price, then bounced sharply. The HP Method 'textbook ' provides two possible explanations: 1) the droolers and algos have finally begun to recognize the usefulness of this key HP level; or, 2) buying power is waxing and was too strong to allow a correction to reach p. I lean toward the latter interpretation, but without necessarily having it negate the former. The implication is that this rally will at least exceed C=4418.75. Here's the chart. [Further update, 10:40 a.m.: The bounce reached the green line (x=4323.06), but it did not qualify as a ‘mechanical’ short, since the bounce was coming off a low that had failed to touch p.] ______ UPDATE (Mar 7, 7:40 p.m.): Considering what's going on in the world, sellers looked most unimpressive as they batted down the futures a measly 146 points. When they come to their senses, look for the S&Ps to fall 400-600 points in a day, an event that would be commensurate with the excesses that have preceeded it. In the meantime,

The stock narrowly missed triggering a 'mechanical' short last week when it rallied to within an inch of the green line (x) on Thursday. For analytical purposes, however, we'll treat the trade as having filled, since that will preserve a useful pattern for gauging the strength of the downtrend if  AAPL should continue to fall as I expect. The Whoopee Cushion bounce off the Feb 24 low at 152.00 appears to have sputtered out, but if buyers get second wind and push up to the green line again (x=169.59), it can be shorted with a stop-loss at 176.65. (We can cut the risk by 95% with 'camouflage', so stay tuned to the chat room if the trade interests you.) Meanwhile, look for more slippage to at least 155.47, the secondary pivot. ______ UPDATE (Mar 7, 8:04 p.m.): Time for me to mention D=148.41, the downside target shown in the chart.  A rally to the green line (x=169.59) would still make an enticing 'mechanical' short, but we may not be so lucky. 

Buyers didn't exactly obliterate the 1944.20 midpoint resistance on their first attempt to get past it last week, but the futures subsequently appeared to pick up strength when they failed to pull back to the green line (x=1911.40) to gift us with a 'mechanical' long. The implication is that the futures are bound for D=2009.75 and all but certain to achieve it.  A pullback to p=1944.20 first would trigger a 'mechanical' buy with a stop-loss at 1922.30. We can cut the risk down to size in real time, so be sure to tune to the chat room for further guidance when the futures get close to the target. _______ UPDATE (Mar 7, 9:54 a.m. EST): Gold has topped overnight (when else?) a tenth of a percent from the $2009.75 target flagged above. Using the visual technique I detailed in the chat room last week, this was close enough to have set up a low-risk, reverse-pattern short or a precise exit from a long. Anyone do the trade? In any event, here's the chart.  The so-far low of the reversal is 1964.20, a $43 drop from the high. _____ UPDATE (Mar 8, 8:52 a.m.): Ya gotta love the way gold thumbed its nose at the very-round-number resistance, $2000! The next Hidden Pivot resistance lies at 2034.80 within a pattern on the daily chart that dates back to A= 1821.10 (2/11). It will max out at 2066.60 (A=1788.50 on 2/3). _______ UPDATE (Mar 8, 10:42 p.m.): How nice to see gold acting like a FAANG stock!  I've used the highly unconventional pattern shown in this chart to project minimum upside over the near term to 2099.70.  _______ UPDATE (Mar 9, 7:23 a.m.): I've 'discovered' a new pattern that should have been more obvious to me initially and which somewhat changes my outlook for the near

Silver spent a couple of days last week building a base for an easy move to the 26.46 target shown. It has kept us confidently on the right side of the trend, even if the pattern from which it was derived yielded no opportune 'mechanical' buying opportunities on the hourly chart. The target can be shorted if you've made some bucks on the way up, but we should be more interested in how bulls handle the implied 'hidden' supply there. As always, a decisive move past 'D', particularly on first contact, would imply the trend is likely to continue. In the meantime, a pullback to the red line would trip an appealing 'mechanical' buy, stop 24.74. We'll deal with risk-cutting if and when the requisite pullback occurs. _______ UPDATE (Mar 7, 10:01 a.m. EST): The futures topped overnight (suh-prize, suh-prize!) three tenths of a percent from the target flagged above, exhausting tradeable opportunities for the moment. Let's see how long it takes for bulls to reverse the correction and shred past the inconveniently timed high. _______ UPDATE (Mar 8, 8:54 p.m.): Not long at all, as it happens. You can use 27.54 as a minimum upside projection now, calculated by sliding 'A' down to Feb 3's 22.05 low. _______ UPDATE (Mar 8, 10:52 p.m.):  The 'reverse' pattern shown in this chart gives silver an easy path to at least 29.75, but there are bigger conventional patterns that project even higher. A pullback to the green line (x=23.49), however unlikely, would trigger a juicy 'mechanical' buy. _______ UPDATE (Mar 9, 9:48 p.m.): Note to a chat-room denizen posted this evening:  "Artie, are you or anyone else following Silver? The May futures fell nearly $2 after coming within a nickel of the 27.54 target flagged above, but no one seems to have noticed. I'd like

April Crude's ascent seems all but certain to continue to at least 117.82, the target shown in the chart, but if this Hidden Pivot resistance fails to slow down buyers, look for a further rally to at least 122.30, the target of a larger pattern (A= 95.29 on 2/28). Chat-room interest in this vehicle has been low, but if I see an exceptional 'camouflage' or 'mechanical' buying opportunity developing intraday, I will nonetheless signal it and send out an email 'Notification'. This is a new Rick's Picks service that has produced some winners for subscribers who are not able to monitor the chat room closely. ______ UPDATE (Mar 6, 10:09 p.m. EST): The odd but entirely legitimate pattern shown maxes out immediate rally possibilities for April Crude with a 141.34 target. Judging from the way buyers crushed the midpoint resistance, the target is all but certain to be achieved eventually. A short there looks promising, but I am suggesting this only to those of you who have made money on the way up or who know how to cut entry risk to relative pocket change with a 'camo' trade set-up. The 141.34 objective is not guaranteed to be precisely accurate, since the coordinates are based on a composite chart. ______ UPDATE Mar 22 7:08 p.m.): This chart shows that today's short squeeze tripped a theoretical buy signal at x=109.73 for a possible shot at 158.34. The 125.94 midpoint pivot can serve as a minimum upside projection for now, however. The pattern is radically different from the one proffered initially, a blended contract with a 141.34 destination. I have not offered a fresh tout with the new chart because WordPress would have put it at the top of the touts list. If subscriber interest in crude revives, though, I will step up

The strong leap that ended the week produced some instant quadruplers for subscribers who bought expiring at-the-money call options when TLT got bludgeoned down to the green line on Wednesday. This provided a textbook buying set-up for a 'mechanical' trade that, by its nature, will tend to scare the hell out of traders who act on the signal. The power of the bounce, in addition to the subsequent consolidation above p=139.32, have shortened the odds that the move will continue to at least 145.13, the 'D' rally target of the pattern shown. An easy move through it would be quite bullish. _______ UPDATE (Mar 7, 8:07 p.m. EST): If the pullback continues to the green line, it would trip an enticing 'mechanical' buy there, stop 134.50.  Ask me in the chat room if you need more guidance to pare the risk. _______ UPDATE (Mar 8, 10:58 p.m. EST): Cancel the 'mechanical' bid, since we've seen a weak rally from just above it.  If TLT relapses to x, it seems likely to exceed it. _____ UPDATE (Mar 10, 11:55 p.m. EST): Yuk! The selloff has exceeded Hidden Pivot supports and 'discomfort' zones -- everything, in fact, except the key low at 113.19 recorded a year ago.  Don't count on it to hold, but its breach could still set up an appealing 'counterintuitive' play. For the rABC set-up, use a= 136.41 (3/2).